Energy
Russia extended through October 31 its ban on diesel, marine fuel, and gasoil exports, citing harvest demand. Russia’s diesel shipments once accounted for about 10 percent of seaborne diesel. Phillips 66’s Brian Mandell said in August that 7 million barrels a day of refining were down in Asia and the Middle East and 1.4 million in Russia. U.S. diesel averaged $6.41 a gallon on the last day of September.
Meanwhile, Reuters reported that the Trump administration asked Germany and France to release 120 million barrels over six months, about 660,000 barrels a day, or face a U.S. export ban on diesel. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said announcements are expected soon.
However, Gail Tverberg argues the diesel and jet fuel shortfall is not simply a Strait of Hormuz problem. World per-capita use of those middle distillates stopped growing around 2005, plateaued until 2019, and fell 16 percent in 2020, as new supply shifted toward lighter shale oil that yields more gasoline and less diesel. Heavier, often sour crudes produce a disproportionate share of diesel and jet fuel, but they cost more to extract, refine, and move, and today’s higher prices mostly reflect shipping and insurance rather than revenue that would spur new heavy-oil investment. She sees no short-term fix. Over time, economies would need to use middle distillates more sparingly, while diesel stays dearer than gasoline long enough to justify more heavy oil and bitumen.
That all said, Goldman Sachs said Persian Gulf oil exports, including dark exports, recovered to 23.3 million barrels a day last week, matching the 2025 average, with crude at 108 percent of its 2025 average and refined products near half. In a Bloomberg opinion piece, Javier Blas wrote that Trump holds the Hormuz advantage as allied crude via Hormuz and bypasses nears 80 percent of prewar levels, and Iran’s seaborne exports sit at zero.
On the flip side, reports said Houthis struck near Abqaiq, Saudi Arabia’s crude-processing hub. Open-source accounts placed a fire south of Ayn Dar, not at the main plant, with no official confirmation. UK Maritime Trade Operations reported a crude tanker and an LNG carrier hit by unidentified projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz, and a very large crude carrier was hit by a drone, put out a fire, and sailed on with no casualties. IRGC spokesman Hossein Mohebbi said daily strait conflict draws no U.S. response. Qatar’s prime minister said LNG exports through Hormuz are barely happening.
Long-term, Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed Al Nahyan is pursuing a Zero Hormuz plan around Fujairah, which bypasses the strait on the Gulf of Oman. L’imad, the emirate’s $300 billion fund, plans to take Abu Dhabi Ports private at nearly $9 billion, spend tens of billions more outside Hormuz, and, with BlackRock, Temasek, and ADNOC, target up to $30 billion in energy transport while a second ADNOC pipeline doubles Fujairah export capacity by 2027. Goldman Sachs estimates new pipes could insulate more than 60 percent of pre-war Gulf exports by end-2028. Fujairah recently handled 3.6 million barrels a day, more than double pre-war levels, but was attacked early in the war.
Economy
Sixteen U.S. trucking companies filed for bankruptcy in less than a month after diesel rose to a record prices. More than 250 jobs are affected. Eight firms, including Xoco Transport and Globemaster, filed Chapter 11. Seven filed Chapter 7. Filings did not cite diesel alone, and carriers also face higher labor, insurance, and regulatory costs.
In other news, another central bank takes an interest in gold. The Bank of Korea will buy about one ton of domestic gold in December, worth roughly $140 million, its first physical purchase since 2013. Holdings were 104.4 tons, 3.4 percent of reserves, 39th globally. Paying in won avoids dollar outflows. The bank bought $250 million of gold ETFs in the second quarter.
Geopolitics
On the U.S. deadline to end a 12-year presence in Iraq, Muqtada al-Sadr demanded American compensation for occupation damages and urged Iraqis to file claims. Troops entered in 2003, left in 2011, and returned in 2014 against the Islamic State. Sadr said Washington and neighbors should stay out of Iraqi affairs and that weapons should come under the state. Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi extended armed-group integration to June 2027. Iran-backed factions, including Kataeb Hezbollah, have indicated they will not disarm. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps described the U.S. withdrawal as a historic victory for the Axis of Resistance.
Artificial Intelligence
Patrick F. Feeley argues that AI is about to make bank code much cheaper, but depositors, not banks, will keep most of the savings. Bill Ackman said Cognition’s coding agent Devin can rewrite a bank’s legacy COBOL in days rather than months, and Feeley agrees those cost cuts are real. He expects banks to give much of the gain away on loans, which already compete on price, and to pay more for deposits once agents such as Meta’s Muse make it easier for customers to move money sitting at near-zero rates. For the many community banks that rent their core systems from Fiserv, Jack Henry, and FIS, he adds, the vendors are likely to capture the code savings first.
On the health side of AI, HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. told the MAHA Summit, partly sponsored by OpenAI and Anthropic, that Sam Altman said it would be malpractice to diagnose or prescribe without checking AI. Kennedy said AI can distill a thousand-page record a doctor has six minutes to review and expressed the view that it could free people from medical tyranny. Lawsuits allege chatbot advice caused harm. Vice President JD Vance said downsides involve models trained to hack computers and that firms should not be shielded from product liability. Some physicians noted that evidence does not establish AI as more reliable than doctors.
US Politics
Senate Democrats blocked cloture 53-47 on the Stop Insider Trading Act, short of 60 votes needed to open debate. The House-passed bill would have barred new stock buys by members, spouses, and dependent children and required notice before sales, while allowing existing holdings. Republicans had attached a national photo voter ID, and Chuck Schumer said the bill still allows members to own and sell stocks.
In other political news, Secretary of War Pete Hegseth directed Cyber Command, the NSA, the Defense Intelligence Agency, and the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency to prioritize foreign interference in the 2026 midterms. A September 22 memo said the department will use intelligence and cyber tools against external manipulation of voting, working with Homeland Security and state officials. Gen. Joshua M. Rudd said Cyber Command and the NSA already counter such foreign actors.
Sources
Who Keeps the Savings When AI Rewrites Bank COBOL?
Bill Ackman is right that the code is about to get a lot cheaper. I am just not convinced most banks get to keep much of it.
Source | Submitted by Shplad
Russia Extends Diesel Export Ban to Oct. 31 as Refinery Attacks Persist
Russia has been extending the ban on diesel and other fuel exports by one month for months as Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries are crippling domestic fuel production.
16 Trucking Firms Bankrupt as Diesel Explodes on Iran War Shock
Sixteen American trucking companies have entered bankruptcy proceedings in less than a month, affecting more than 250 jobs
Abu Dhabi’s ‘Zero Hormuz’ Bet: Tens of Billions to Make Fujairah Iran’s Worst Nightmare
The country wants to move to Zero Hormuz dependency regardless of whether the strait is open or not.
Hegseth Tasks Cyber Command, NSA With Countering Foreign Midterm Interference
In America, the people rule – and we must ensure that their voice remains sovereign, secure, and entirely undiluted,
Sadr Demands US Compensation as Last Troops Leave Iraq
We demand compensation from the American army for all the damages that occurred as a result of its occupation of Iraqi lands.
Senate Dems Sink Lawmaker Stock Ban After GOP Adds Voter ID
A midterm messaging bill that was never going to become law just confirmed the only bipartisan consensus that matters: members of Congress still get to play the tape.
Gulf Oil Exports Rebound to Pre-War Levels as Trump Gains Hormuz Edge, Goldman Says
We estimate that Persian Gulf oil exports, including estimated “dark exports”, have recovered to 23.3mb/d over the last week, in line with their 2025 average, as exports doubled in September,
Bank of Korea Resumes Gold Buys After 13 Years to Hedge the Dollar
Add South Korea to the list of countries taking tentative steps to hedge their exposure to the US dollar, and fiat in general.
RFK Jr. Hails AI Over Doctors to End ‘Medical Tyranny’ at Industry Summit
So it really has the capacity to dominate us to free us from medical tyranny,
Unconfirmed Houthi Strike Reports Hit Saudi Oil Hub as Hormuz Tankers Attacked, US-Iran Talks Stall
No official sources have confirmed a Wednesday attack as of yet.
The Diesel Shortage Predates Hormuz: Heavy Oil, Prices, and Why It Won’t End Soon
The shortage is not simply the result of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Trump to Europe: Tap Emergency Diesel or Face U.S. Export Ban
The Trump administration has asked Germany and France to release emergency diesel inventories to help create a buffer against the supply squeeze in the industrial fuel or face a potential US diesel export ban.
In addition to sources submitted by community members, the following were also used in the creation of this report: The Epoch Times, Ars Technica, The New York Times, Bloomberg, Mehr News Agency, TRT World, AP News, and ABC News.
by preppy 
