Even as US gasoline and diesel prices rise to fresh records, US-Iranian negotiations are going nowhere quickly, and Trump has declared the ceasefire all but dead.
Trump called the Iranian counterproposal a “piece of garbage.”
Trump: It's unbelievably weak, I would say. I would call it the weakest right now after reading a piece of garbage they sent us I didn't even finish reading it they said I'm not going to waste my time reading it pic.twitter.com/SY9vaxM0Re
— Furkan Gözükara (@FurkanGozukara) May 11, 2026
Which means there’s no end in sight (yet) for the Iran war and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz (SoH).
However, the CEO’s of major oil companies are urgently warning the world that oil stockpiles are becoming “critically low” (Amin Nasser, Saudi Aramco) and that “the US cannot supply the world” (Mike Wirth, Chevron).
So, Trump is caught in a huge bind, which means the world is caught in a huge bind. He cannot attack without risking a more complete catastrophe, and he cannot back down without further damaging an already tattered US (and personal) reputation.
But the oil clock is relentlessly ticking down.
With just a few more weeks’ time of the SoH remaining closed, the world will hit the “Operational Stress Level” for oil inventories:
By September, it’s a true crisis that will see oil prices rise to a level that destroys sufficient oil demand. Let us all hope we don’t get there because that’s a global economic depression.
The ticking clock, plus Trump’s famously short patience for things that aren’t going well, means that he may opt to renew military strikes against Iran.
Trump is considering resuming military action in Iran according to US officials to hit the remaining energy targets to force Iran to the negotiation table, a second option of resuming operational freedom operation in the Strait of Hormuz is also being considered.
— WarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧 (@WarMonitor3) May 11, 2026
Iran has clearly indicated that it will strike a wide range of Gulf targets if it is attacked again, and it’s probably best to take them at their word. Unfortunately, their target list includes the few remaining pipelines bringing ~ 1/2 of the Gulf’s remaining oil riches to the world.
If Trump renews attacks and Iran responds as they’ve said they will, I will be issuing my strongest ALERT to my subscribers.
by cmartenson