Wednesday, April 9, 2025, was one for the record books. As I sat down with my good friend Paul Kiker of Kiker Wealth Management for our latest Finance University podcast, the bond markets were in turmoil, doing things they really shouldn’t be doing, while stocks were mysteriously calm and well-bid.
And then all heck broke loose. Trump almost completely surprised everyone with a tariff announcement that sent shockwaves through the financial world, and I’m still trying to make sense of it all.
Here’s what happened, what it means to me, and why I think we’re at a turning point that’s bigger than most realize.
The day started with a bombshell. At 1:18 PM Eastern, Trump declared he was jacking up tariffs on China to 125%, effective immediately, citing their “lack of respect” for global markets.
China is the largest and most vital of all trade relationships in both dollar amounts and in terms of vital components, so I braced myself for a market plunge – after all, that kind of escalation was adding fuel to the trade bonfire.
But then came the twist: he followed it with a 90-day pause on tariffs for over 75 countries that had reached out to negotiate, slashing their rates to 10%. The markets didn’t take any time to digest this information, they immediately erupted higher. The S&P 500 soared 376 points, the Dow climbed nearly 2,500, and the Russell 2000 leapt almost 10%. It was a “rip your face off” rally, as Paul put it, the kind you usually see in bear markets, not on a random Tuesday.
But here’s the real kicker: just a few hours before the tariff pause tweet, Trump had posted, “This is a great time to buy!!!” with three exclamation points for extra emphasis.
That left a stench in the air. Was he front-running his own announcement? Are we supposed to scour his Truth Social feed for stock tips now?
Paul was just as frustrated, pointing out that only the big algo traders could move that fast. The average investor didn’t stand a chance. Worse, “somebody” magically bought a hefty amount of SPY end-of-day call options that launched 2,500% in a matter of minutes before the tweet came out.
It’s moments like these that make me question the game we’re all playing, especially when markets are this overvalued.
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But here’s where it gets interesting: the bond market told a different story. Stocks might be for show, but bonds are for dough, as the old Wall Street saying goes. While equities were partying, the 30-year and 10-year Treasury yields kept climbing. To put it mildly, this is unusual.
Normally, when stocks tank, people pile into bonds, driving yields down. Not this time. I pulled up the charts for Paul, and we saw it plain as day—bonds were selling off, and the dollar wasn’t rallying either. Something was off.
Jim Bianco tweeted late last night that the bond market looked “disorderly,” hinting at a possible unwind of the basis trade—a geeky but critical leveraged bet on tiny price gaps between cash bonds and futures. When those bets go wrong, they can blow up spectacularly, and I’ve seen it before: 1998, 2002, and now, maybe 2025.
Gold, meanwhile, was screaming a signal I can’t ignore. It hit $3,100, up $117 on the day, shrugging off the usual 8 AM slam from U.S. traders. Asia’s been buying hand over fist, and the West is running low on supply. To me, gold clearly says there’s big money printing ahead, and maybe a dollar sacrifice is needed to keep this ship afloat. The dollar regime is over–dead, kaput! – and all efforts will now be expended trying to save the bond market.
I told Paul I think we’re heading toward a day when gold becomes “unaffordium,” as my friend Mike Maloney calls it, too expensive to buy for most, while silver will become “unobtainium,” affordably priced but nowhere to be found.
Reflecting on all this, it’s obvious we’re in uncharted waters.
“The old world is dying, and the new world struggles to be born: now is the time of monsters.”
― Antonio Gramsci
Paul and I kicked around the idea that Trump’s team might be aiming for something audacious – maybe a Bretton Woods-level reset of global trade and the dollar’s role. Scott Bessent, Treasury Secretary, said on Tucker Carlson’s show that the old system was broken, juicing the economy with debt like a bodybuilder on steroids.
I buy into that. We’ve been pumping up the outside while the insides rot. If they’re serious about fixing it, tariffs are just a tool in a bigger plan. But man, it’s chaotic—90 days could turn into nine days with one tweet.
Paul’s take: use these face-ripping bear-market rallies as a chance to lower risk. Wild rallies are gifts if you’re disciplined and understand where we are in the macro story. Sell into strength, shore up cash, ladder some Treasuries for a few years if you’re retired.
For those with ears to hear, we’ve been warning about overvalued markets since last fall. The NASDAQ is ‘valued’ at six times sales, the Buffett Indicator is at the never-before-seen level of 208%. A 50% drop from these levels wouldn’t shock me as that would be light by historical comparison.
What keeps me up at night, though, isn’t just the numbers. It’s the human cost. I’ve seen the Fed double its balance sheet after every crisis, each time tossing another ladder rung of the population under the bus. First it was the poor. Then the bottom 50% of the country. Then the upper middle class…
In San Francisco, $108,000 a year is now the official poverty line. Imagine what’s next if the Fed doubles its balance sheet to $15 trillion. At that point it will literally be the 99% who have been officially tossed under the bus, during a time of incredible political fracture. Who thinks that doesn’t end very badly for everyone?
Paul and I agree: this path ends in cultural disaster unless someone breaks the cycle. Maybe Trump’s crew is trying. Maybe they’ll succeed. Maybe they’ll fail spectacularly. Either way, I’m staying vigilant—reading the smoke signals, pivoting when I need to, and keeping my eyes on gold, bonds, and the East-West divide.
For now, I’m signing off with a mix of intrigue and caution.
If you’re feeling the same, Paul’s team at peakfinancialinvesting.com can walk you through your risks—free consult, no pressure. It’s a wild ride, folks, but I’ll be back next week to unpack more. Stay sharp, stay nimble, and stay safe.
by cmartenson