The US recession appears to be gathering steam – each week, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNOW forecasting tool is looking more unhappy. For sure, “they” want to focus on the upcoming Trump-cession – just yesterday, I saw the first Nudge Google article on point. (…) The increasing likelihood of the US leaving NATO really is revolutionary. All the massive war preparation signals over the last week suggest that’s a very real possibility and (I suspect) not one the WEFers saw coming.
Consumer Economy
Durable Goods, New Orders (DGORDER); $286B (SAAR) +8.7B (+3.06% m/m)
Auto/Light Truck Sales (ALTSALES); 16M (units, SAAR) +501K (+3.13% m/m)
Fed GDP Prediction (GDPNOW); -2.4% (vs -1.48% last week)
Durable goods moved higher, as well as auto/light truck sales. These were modestly positive. At the same time, GDPNOW dropped almost a full point vs last week, projecting contraction.
In employment-land, the establishment survey (company-reports) and the household survey (phone interviews) diverged. The establishment survey looked positive, while the household survey did not.
Establishment Survey:
Nonfarm Payrolls (PAYEMS) 159.2M +151K +0.09%
There was modest growth in establishment payrolls this month.
Household Survey:
Population (CNP16OV) 272.8M +162K +0.06%
Employed (CE16OV) 163.3M -588K -0.36%
Not working (NILF) 102.7M -140K -0.14%
We saw a half-million fewer employed in the household survey; a moderate decline.
Disability:
Population (LNU00074597); 34.266M -283K -0.82%
Employed (LNU02074597); 7601K -233K -2.97%
Not working (LNU05074597); 25.955M -30K -0.12%
A decent drop in total-population (CNP) disabled, and in the employed-disabled too. The drop in disability appears to be mostly happening in the employed, so its not about the “not working” disabled suddenly getting better – or dying. This is the second month of population disability decline, which I take as good news.
Native vs Foreign:
Native-born (LNU02073413) 130.857M +284K +0.22%
Foreign-born (LNU02073395) 31.687M -87K -0.27%
Modest job gains for the native-born, and percentagewise, similar-sized job losses foreign-born. Here’s a chart on the “foreign-native” employment ratio (something I just made up, to track trends) along with a 12-point MA to smooth out the seasonal variation. The black line needs to cross the red line to show a trend change.
Part Time Work:
Working Part Time – because only PTW available (LNS12032196); 1.25M +58k +4.85%
Working Part Time/Economic Reasons,
by cmartenson 
