There were a number of economic reports this week:
- Personal Income: +0.36% month over month (m/m), prior +0.68% m/m. Still positive, but slowing.
- Durable Goods: new orders -2.13% m/m, prior +0.735 m/m; topping out. Bearish
- Median New Home Sales: +7.57 m/m, prior +3.14% m/m. New all time high.
- Personal Income: +1.3% quarter over quarter (q/q), prior +1.2% q/q. Bullish, although (annualized) it does not keep up with inflation.
- Auto/Light Trucks: -6.98% m/m, prior +9.84% m/m. Possible reversal. Bearish.
Editor’s Note: The Weekly Market Update was delayed one day because of the Christmas holiday.
The macro data looks mixed this week. That said, it is bad to see durable goods orders go negative – orders are “next month”, versus most of the other indicators which represent “last month.” Auto/truck sales look ugly too, and personal income is slowing down. I’d also interpret the jump in median new home sales prices as “only the rich can afford a new home” – which caused median price to move higher. Overall, things look mildly bearish; we could be approaching a turning point overall.
The buck fell this week, losing -0.32 [-0.31%] to 104.41. Although, the big fuss this week was driven by the BOJ backing off from its money printing, all the drama didn’t seem to affect the dollar all that much overall – even though JPY rallied fairly strongly [+2.69% vs U.S.
by davefairtex 
