In this week’s podcast Paul Kiker and I discussed how import inflation was already running extremely hot in February (17% annualized!) before the Iran War-of-(ill-advised)-choice kicked off.
Now we’re all going to have to adjust and brace, at a minimum, for much higher inflation over the next few years. At worst, we’ll be battling shortages and supply shocks at the same time.
Paul’s approach to portfolio management strictly adheres to a disciplined risk-management approach. Coming into this crisis, Paul’s base portfolio was already conservative, and his team is ready to sell any positions that breach pre-determined technical support levels.
Both of us observed how the US financial markets leading up to this recording (on March 26th, 2026) had a pre-Covid feel to them. Too calm given what was obviously approaching. Markets seem to be repeating the 2020 pattern of ignoring clear warning signs until the shocks hit suddenly.
However, today’s energy-supply destruction (oil fields, natural-gas facilities, Russian export capacity down 40%) is not reversible overnight like COVID lockdowns. The coming shocks are not like those of either the GFC in 2008 or Covid where human ignorance and decisions could be ‘papered over’ by the Fed.
Energy shortfalls directly translate into economic decline. Months-to-years of energy production shortfalls are expected. This shock is therefore completely unlike either the GFC or Covid.
For those nearing or already in retirement, Paul’s advice is:
- Stress-test all plans at 5.5% compounded inflation (most plans use 2–3%).
- Passive buy-and-hold is dangerously exposed; 50% drawdowns require 100% gains just to get back to even.
- Build a 24-month cash/liquidity buffer.
- Build 1–3 months of food & supply resilience
- Obey the first rule of “Do no harm,” which translates into “Minimize losses.”
- Prioritize active defensive positioning and adhere to strict risk rules
Click below to secure your meeting with Paul Kiker and/or one of his team.
Timestamps
00:00 Market Uncertainty Amid Global Conflict
03:03 Inflationary Pressures and Fed Challenges
05:55 Risk Management Strategies in Volatile Markets
09:11 Political Dynamics and Market Reactions
11:51 Comparing Current Events to COVID-19
15:08 Energy Crisis and Economic Implications
18:02 Market Manipulation and Investor Psychology
21:07 The Role of Supply Chains in Inflation
23:52 Global Economic Interdependencies
27:12 Historical Market Lessons and Future Outlook
36:48 The Pitfalls of Passive Investing
40:45 The Energy Crisis: Oil and Gas Insights
52:20 Inflation and Economic Strategies
01:04:09 Preparing for Market Volatility
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by ian-day