The buck fell 0.91 [-0.85%] to 105.92 on the week; most of the damage happened on Monday and Tuesday. While the buck remains (barely) above the 200 MA, this week marks a new 4-month closing low. Is the dollar rally over? I’ll show you a monthly of the buck this week – it might provide a better sense of where things are headed. The monthly chart looks pretty unhappy; November’s loss is almost 5%.
Gold moved slightly higher this week, rising 8.5o [+0.48%] to 1761.80. Mostly this happened in the latter part of the work. On the monthly timeframe, gold is up 121.10 [+7.38%]. Gold/Euros is also higher in November, up 2.02%. You can see that after seven months of decline, gold is now rallying back fairly strongly, having wiped out three months of losses. The gold/EUR move tells us gold’s move is more than just currency. Also, the open interest for gold (not shown) continues to fall – OI fell about 29k contracts this week. That usually happens at or near the lows – and is a bit surprising after a $121 move.
Silver outperformed gold this week, rising 0.61 [+2.91%] to 21.61. I’ve included a daily chart of silver with OI, to show how the silver open interest has continued to plunge even as price rebounded. This is really not normal. If the banksters are bailing out of their short positions at this point in the chart…that’s good news. It might be telling us there are higher prices to come; it also could be an artifact of the end-of-month delivery shenanigans. Silver also managed to close back above the 200 MA (not shown) this week, which is another positive sign.
There was also good news from the metals ratios: GDX:gold +3.36% (bullish), GDXJ:GDX +0.93% (bullish), and silver:gold +2.92% (bullish). The miners looked especially strong. Miners >> silver >> gold. That’s a bull market. Could gold be sniffing out a further plunge in the buck? The futures markets are still projecting a 75% chance of a 50 bp Fed rate increase on Dec. 14, along with a 25% chance of a 75 bp rate increase. It kinda feels like all the “layoff” talk is hinting at a Fed pivot. Will it happen? The labor market might be the key. We have payrolls next Friday.
by jim-h-2 
