Consumer Economy
Consumer Sentiment (UMCSENT); 55.0
Consumer Credit (TOTALSL); 5.03T +363M (+0.01% m/m)
Consumer sentiment looks pretty unhappy – it is about as bad as it was back in 2008. It was even lower under Senile Joe-Autopen, during the recession that was hidden by “them” giving illegals trillions of our tax dollars. “We’ll pay for your hotel. Yes, really.”
Consumer credit (pct change y/y) is about flat, which says no growth in credit, even though inflation remains high. Credit growth is as low as it was during the Fauci-lockdowns back in 2020. Consumers are tapped out, or have no confidence – maybe both. That’s recessionary.
Credit & Rates
Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL) 6.59T +3.7B (+0.06% w/w)
Total Bank Credit (TOTBKCR) 18.76T +20.1B (+0.11% w/w)
30 Year Mortgage Rate (MORTGAGE30US) 6.30% -0.00 (-0.63% w/w)
3 Month Treasury (DGS3MO) 3.95% -8 bp
10 Year Treasury (DGS10) 4.04% -9 bp
20 Year Treasury (DGS20) 4.58% -11 bp
20 Year Bond Fund (TLT) 90.62 +1.24 (+1.39% w/w)
No QT, and total bank credit expanded slightly again, at 5.72% annualized. That’s “just barely expansion”, but we are out of deflationary mode. Note that consumers apparently didn’t contribute to this credit increase.
Bond rates moved lower, with maybe 40% of the decline happening on Tariff Terror Friday. TLT was a big winner on Friday: +1.61%.
Nudge Google seemed excited – about Tariff Terror, as well as the Schumer Shutdown.
Trump announces 130% tariffs on China. The global trade war just came roaring back [Oct 10]
(source – CNN)
Whew! Trump Crash (because “tariffs”) is back on the schedule! Curiously, people want to buy U.S. Treasurys in response. TLT is now in an uptrend.
CME Fedwatch Tool projects a 98% chance of one cut on the October 29th meeting.
Currencies
The buck rallied strongly this week, rising 1.32 [+1.35%] to 98.73 – and that’s including Friday’s plunge (-0.55 -0.56%) caused by the Tariff Terror news.
by cmartenson 
