Consumer Economy
- Auto/Light Truck Sales (ALTSALES) 14.9M -1.07M (-6.66% m/m) (prior +2.14% m/m)
- ADP Payrolls (adpemploymentreport.com); 132.28M +22K (+0.02%)
Auto/Light truck sales fell to a new 3-year low. That’s a hint of recession. At the same time, the sub-component heavy truck sales shot higher (38k +5.6k +17%) this month – we are almost back to normal levels. It looks like a post-pandemic recovery sort of move – same thing happened in 2020. BOOMING?
No official Payrolls data – it was “delayed” due to the one-hour “government shutdown.” I’m joking – it was a four-day shutdown – if you include the weekend. Since the Trumpitos refuse to provide employment data (because “shutdown”), I got it from ADP. The chart below shows the “monthly net change” in payrolls. BOOMING?
Ok, there is one BOOMING sector.
For the +22k new jobs:
- -57k professional/business services
- -13k other services
- -8k manufacturing
- -5k information
- +4k transport/utilities
- +4k hospitality
- +9k construction
- +14k financial
- +74k education/health services.
(source – adpemploymentreport.com)
Sickcare is BOOMING in Death-Vaxed America. And banksters are doing ok too.
Possibly related:
Concerning surge in New Cancer Patient search activity – continues to conform to its 2025 acceleration. [Feb 7]
(source – EthicalSkeptic)
I ran his Google Trends search for “new cancer patient” in the US since 2015. Here’s what appeared. Is this (mysterious, doctors-are-baffled) increase in searches connected with the BOOMING employment in “health services”?
Credit & Rates
- Total Bank Credit (TOTBKCR) 19.13T +6.1B (+0.03% w/w) (prior +0.38% w/w)
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL) 6.61T +18.3B (+0.28% w/w) (prior +0.05% w/w)
- US 30 Year Mortgage Rate (MORTGAGE30US) 6.11% +1 bp
- 3-Month Treasury (DGS3MO) 3.68% +1 bp
- 1-Year Treasury (DGS1) 3.45% -3 bp
- 10-Year Treasury (DGS10) 4.22% -4 bp
- 20+ Treasury ETF (TLT.N) +0.47% w/w (prior -0.91% w/w) -0.23% y/y
Bank credit faded this week, but it is still growing at a 6.3% rate y/y.
The Fed printed money this week: $18 billion, with most of it in “Securities Held Outright.” That’s about $1 trillion per year, if it continues at this rate.
In spite of “money printing”, treasury rates fell in the 1-10 year items, but were mostly unchanged in the short (3M) and very long term (30Y) items. TLT rallied a bit (+0.47%), probably driven by the
by cmartenson