East/West Nuclear Expansions, and a Familiar Gray Zone Warfare Trap

Shots Fired in The Taiwan Straits

According to a Reuters report, the Taiwan military fired warning shots at Chinese military drones operating over Taiwan territory. The incident occurred on Erdan Islet in the Kinmen Islands, a group of islands near the Chinese coast. Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen said she ordered the military to take “strong countermeasures” against the continued provocations by Chinese military forces. The drone reportedly left the area after the shots were fired. Earlier today, Lin Wen-Huang, deputy chief of the general staff for Taiwan’s armed forces, told reporters in a press briefing, “For aircraft and ships that entered our sea and air territory of 12 nautical miles, the national army will exercise its right to self-defense and counter-attack without exception.”

Analyst Comments: This marks the first time shots have been fired during the current period of elevated tensions between China and Taiwan. China had previously dismissed Taiwan’s claims of harassment and provocations as “nothing to make a fuss about.” Expect China to continue to escalate tensions with Taiwan by increasing the frequency and severity of its incursions into Taiwanese territory – potentially resulting in counterattacks by Taiwan and leading to full-scale armed conflict.

Russia-China Launch Joint Military Drills

Russia Launched its annual Vostok wargames across seven of its far east training centers and in the Sea of Japan. Defense ministry officials said the drills include more than 50,000 troops and 5,000 weapon systems, including ships and fighter jets. The exercises include more than 2,000 troops from China, participants from several former Soviet nations, and regional partners including Laos, Mongolia, Nicaragua, and Syria. Troops from the armed forces of Quad member India also are slated to participate in the annual exercise. The drills are expected to continue throughout September 7.

Analyst Comments: “Vostok” is a routine annual military exercise that features foreign military participation.