Market Commentary
To me the buck [-0.80%] had the most interesting move this week – it fell four days out of five, printing a weekly swing high/strong bearish reversal (70%). Money flowed into bonds [-7 bp to 1.27%], and is starting to move out of equities – at least a little bit [-0.37%]. SPX sector map was bearish. Perhaps that mild decline in equities is hinting at the foreclosure moratorium ending? If the dollar decline continues, it should be good for PM.
Related: gold, silver and the miners all moved higher, with the miners looking strongest [+5.99%]. XAU printed a strong bullish reversal (68%) and it has resumed its uptrend. Gold and silver have yet to do so.
In silver, open interest remains at year-low levels. Silver moved up for much of the week, but all the OI did was drop. To me, that’s unusual – and bullish; normally the banksters go short as price rises. This week’s odd behavior – which has been going on for a while now – suggests that the banksters do not want to be short silver, and they’re using every opportunity to bail out of their short positions. The COT report confirms this – commercial shorts are even lower than open interest; they are at a two year low. Gold OI looks similar, although it is not quite as bullish as silver.
End of month gold deliveries were reasonably strong – a 4 month high, while silver deliveries were weak.
On the new-home-sales front – monthly home supply shot higher, up a sharp 0.8 months to 6.3 months, which is the highest since March 2020. At the same time, new SF home sales plunged -48k (7%) while prices dropped -18k (-5.2%).
Wolf explains:
Practically nothing was sold in the under $200,000 price category. The under $300,000 price category accounted for only 28% of total new house sales, down from 39% in June last year. That’s where the volume used to be, but people willing and able to buy a new house under $300,000 are out of luck – prices have moved away from them. And facing those higher house prices, and already struggling with soaring prices in the goods and services they need on a daily basis, they went on buyers’ strike.
by davefairtex 
