Home CPI, Confidence Collapse, Unaffordable Auto Insurance, & Your Mental Immune System

CPI, Confidence Collapse, Unaffordable Auto Insurance, & Your Mental Immune System

Inflation has not gone away, and people are being “inflated” out of their auto insurance. Now we know. Fear porn’s purpose is to hijack people’s memories and personality. Which means, “they” need to be locked up because “they” won’t stop until this happens.

user profile picture davefairtex Jan 14, 2024
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Consumer Price Index (CPIAUCSL): +0.3% m/m (+0.1% m/m prior);
Producer Price Index (PPIACO): -1.3% m/m, -3.3% y/y.  New 2-year low.
30 Year Mortgage Rate (MORTGAGE30US): 6.66% (+4 bp w/w).
10 Year Treasury (DGS10): 3.97% (-8 bp w/w).
Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): +5.7B
Total Bank Credit (TOTBKCR): -21B (-0.12% w/w); heading lower after 6 weeks of expansion.
Strategic Petroleum Reserve (WCSSTUS1): 355k +606 (+0.17% w/w), slight refill.

The CPI release on Thursday (0830 Eastern) caused some volatility – metals jumped higher, then sold off hard.  Treasurys sold off hard too, but eventually bounced back.  Mostly.  Given that energy prices haven’t risen – why is the CPI moving higher?  WolfStreet has the details:

Beneath the Skin of CPI Inflation, December: Not in the Mood to Just Go Away (Source – wolfstreet)

Long story short: “services inflation”, a.k.a. “core services less energy service” = 0.44% m/m (annualized: 5.28%).  Cherry-picked, some of the largest components include:

medical care services & insurance +0.7% m/m
motor vehicle insurance +1.5% m/m (+20% y/y!)
movies, concerts, sports events +1.6% m/m
airline fares +1.0% m/m
pet services +0.8% m/m

It still appears to be a tale of vaxxidents and healthy, in-person worker shortages.  Mainstream, as always, remains baffled.  Something mandated certainly was “Safe” & Effective at causing seemingly unstoppable “services” inflation.

Odds of a rate cut at the next meeting?  5% at the next (Jan 31) meeting, and 81% by March 20, according to CME Fedwatch Tool.  Will things play out this way if services inflation continues to rage?  “They” had better keep a lid on commodity prices.  It is their only hope.  Nobody likes the Biden-Handler policy – the open borders, the endless money for foreign wars, so – short-term – cheap commodities are their only hope.  I suspect the Bankster Cartel (a branch of “them”) is doing the heavy lifting.

Gold was mostly flat this week, rising 1.80 (0.09%) to 2051.60.  Gold fell for most of the week, recovering all of its losses on Friday.  Friday’s good-sized move (+32.40) happened slowly across the day rather than being a price move triggered by some event (like a new war, or a new economic release).  Reading the tea leaves, it feels a little like Big Money was going into gold ahead of “the weekend”, which is when all the fun stuff usually takes place.   One note: the banksters piled in short on Friday – gold’s Open Interest increased by 20k on that day alone,…

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Despite being highly informed, my prep didn’t change much as I realize there is yet another curveball around the corner. Living in this state...
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