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Civil Wars, and EU Bank Runs

More confidence collapse this week – at the ECB staff, hints of EU bank runs, the WHO’s neofascist “pandemic” agreement may have hit an iceberg. NatGas prices plunged last week before the Biden NGL decision but Big Money always knows in advance. Welcome to clown world.

user profile picture davefairtex Jan 28, 2024
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Gross Domestic Product (GDP): +328B +1.18% q/q.  Not inflation-adjusted.
Durable Goods – New Orders (DGORDER): +0.02% m/m.  Flat.
Auto/Light Truck Sales (ALTSALES); +3.16% m/m.  Well off the 2021 highs.
Median New Home Sale Price (MSPNHSUS); -12.8k (-3.10% m/m);  2-year low.
Strategic Petroleum Reserve (WCSTUS1); +920k (+0.26% w/w).  Refill.
Total Bank Credit (TOTBKCR); +0.18% w/w.  Expansion.
Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): +3.5B (+0.05% w/w);  Slight expansion
30 Year Mortgage Rate (MORTGAGE30US); 6.69% +9bp.
10 Year Treasury (DGS10); 4.15% unchanged.

There was a fair amount of fuss on “the new Civil War” – since Senile Joe (really: his Oligarchy-owned Handlers) told Texas the border must remain open, and Texas appears to have refused this order, and there is chatter about federalizing the guard, and so on.   What are prices showing?  Is Big Money moving in alignment with a near-term “Civil War” outcome?

Evidence #1: the 10 year Treasury yield was unchanged on the week.  If a civil war were about to break out, Big Money would probably be panic-selling the 10-year, and we’d see a big spike higher in this yield – the risk of a US sovereign default would be immense if an actual civil war took place, and the losses to global central banks (who hold US treasury bonds as reserves) would be catastrophic.  If this were real, they’d all panic-sell.  That isn’t happening.

Evidence #2: the buck rose 0.16 (+0.16%) to 103.23.  The buck remains below the 200 MA, but it is in an uptrend in both daily & weekly timeframes.   This week’s rally was primarily about a mild Euro decline (-0.22%).  For the buck to rally – even slightly – with an alleged civil war imminent, well that’s extremely unlikely.  If a civil war was seen as likely – or even possible – Big Money would turn the dollar into confetti in a big way.  That’s not happening.

Evidence #3: gold mostly chopped sideways this week – price fell 2.70 (-0.13%) to 2026.60.  Really not much happened, although the banksters closed about 12k short positions – about 2.8% of the total.  That’s a hint of a low, but – just a hint.  No anticipated-civil-war “collapse of confidence” in USD is happening; if it were, gold would blow out to new all time highs overnight as Big Money raced out of the buck into the yellow metal.  Not happening.

Silver was pounded down on Monday, but spent the rest of the week recovering, ending…

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Top Comment

Excellent post, Dave. I am trying to re-focus on investments and this helps a lot.
On Biden’s promise to “close the border” once the number of...
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