Joining me once again is Dave Russell, the CEO of GoldCore.

As always, Dave’s depth of expertise in finance and markets shines through.

The key takeaways are that Investors should closely monitor oil inventories, refined fuel markets, Treasury yields, inflation pressures, and developments in Japan, as these interconnected forces could drive the next major phase of global financial instability.

Dave agrees with my assessment that oil markets are being heavily manipulated by the US government.  This is short-term thinking that could easily result in a long-term disaster.

Price signals are vital to the process of balancing demand against supply.  Break the price signal, and you risk future dislocations in supplies up to and including actual shortages.

Inflation is back on the menu, and rising long-bond yields are consistent with this idea.  How much further could it rise?  And how can we each prepare?  All this and more in the podcast.

We also discussed:

• Supply destruction is becoming permanent.
• Energy shortages are feeding economy-wide inflation.
• The Strait of Hormuz disruption is having accumulating effects.
• Government inflation measures understate reality.
• Oil inventories are approaching critical lows.
• Central banks are steadily accumulating gold.
• China is absolutely vacuuming up available gold
• A futures market delivery crisis is possible.
• The Federal Reserve has few effective policy options.
• Japan’s yen carry trade is beginning to unwind.
• The carry trade has supported global asset prices for decades.

In other words, we discussed a lot because so much is currently happening.

As always, be informed, and be ready to make good decisions based on limited and/or imperfect information.

Timestamps

00:00 – Disclaimer
00:08 – Opening: Energy access, scarcity & inflation
00:44 – Welcome & introduction of Dave Russell
01:07 – Dave’s background (trading desk, FX, bonds, yen carry experience)
01:40 – War, Iran conflict & cost-push inflation
04:00 – “Schrödinger’s Strait,” spillover risks & propaganda
05:30 – Oil price reaction, mysterious selling & futures vs physical
09:32 – Gasoline/diesel prices in Ireland & Europe
10:26 – Strait of Hormuz flows, missing oil & soaring crack spreads
13:29 – Heating oil, diesel proxies & inflation signals
15:31 – Cushing inventories, open interest & delivery risks
19:20 – US commercial crude & total inventories at multi-decade lows
22:13 – Cost-push inflation chain (energy → food, packaging, transport)
25:16 – Risks of suppressing oil futures & abrupt price shocks
32:14 – Rising bond yields (30-year at multi-decade highs) & fiscal stress
37:47 – Why yields are rising (lost demand, weaponization of dollar, trust)
42:45 – 1970s-style second inflation wave risks
45:57 – Yields up + dollar weak: emerging-market-style signal
47:13 – Outlook for yields & limited policy options
54:43 – Yen carry trade: status, pressures & BOJ independence claims
01:05:05 – Who is selling yen & technical levels
01:07:37 – How a carry-trade unwind would work & market opacity
01:11:27 – Futures market mechanics (ladder, stop-outs, algos)
01:16:33 – Gold: central-bank buying, China flows & paper vs physical
01:18:46 – China suspending individual Shanghai Gold Exchange trading
01:24:00 – Gold’s role in China’s monetary system & long-term strategy
01:29:42 – Current gold demand from Goldcore’s perspective
01:32:42 – Broader reset risks, fiat system limits & hard assets
01:35:39 – Stablecoins / Genius Act as temporary demand patch
01:40:06 – Fort Knox / US gold revaluation comments
01:40:36 – Closing thoughts & allocation advice from Dave

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