Public Archives
by
Gregor Macdonald
Global Slowdown
The U.S. economy weakened appreciably in the first quarter of 2013. But what if this weakness persists into the second quarter just completed, and worsens still in the second half of this year? Q1 GDP, as reported on June 26th, was revised lower to just 1.8%. And various indications suggest that Q2 could come in slightly lower still, at 1.6%. Might the U.S. economy be guiding to a long-term GDP of 1.5%? That’s the rate identified by such observers as Jeremy Grantham – the rate at which we combine aging demographics, lower fertility rates, high resource costs, and the burdensome legacy of debt. Well, after a four-year reflationary rally in just about everything, and now with an interest-rate shock, the second half of 2013 appears to have more downside rather than upside risk. Have global stock markets started to discount this possibility?
The Dead Weight of Sluggish Global Growth
by Gregor MacdonaldGlobal Slowdown
The U.S. economy weakened appreciably in the first quarter of 2013. But what if this weakness persists into the second quarter just completed, and worsens still in the second half of this year? Q1 GDP, as reported on June 26th, was revised lower to just 1.8%. And various indications suggest that Q2 could come in slightly lower still, at 1.6%. Might the U.S. economy be guiding to a long-term GDP of 1.5%? That’s the rate identified by such observers as Jeremy Grantham – the rate at which we combine aging demographics, lower fertility rates, high resource costs, and the burdensome legacy of debt. Well, after a four-year reflationary rally in just about everything, and now with an interest-rate shock, the second half of 2013 appears to have more downside rather than upside risk. Have global stock markets started to discount this possibility?
by
JW
A fascinating and sometimes disturbing look at the impacts humans have on their environment as we develop, grow, and inhabit our world. You can explore the pre-selected regions/topics (oil sands) or use the "Explore the World" link at the bottom right of the page to type in your own location and look at how your region has changed over the past 30 years.
http://world.time.com/timelapse/?hpt=hp_t3
Note: Grab the slider and move it back in time to see how things might look in reverse. How long would it take for Nature to reclaim the land and reverse the impacts of our development and growth?
Visualizing the Impact of Humans
by JWA fascinating and sometimes disturbing look at the impacts humans have on their environment as we develop, grow, and inhabit our world. You can explore the pre-selected regions/topics (oil sands) or use the "Explore the World" link at the bottom right of the page to type in your own location and look at how your region has changed over the past 30 years.
http://world.time.com/timelapse/?hpt=hp_t3
Note: Grab the slider and move it back in time to see how things might look in reverse. How long would it take for Nature to reclaim the land and reverse the impacts of our development and growth?
by
Adam Taggart
One of my more memorable moments in business school came during an Operations class. The topic for the day was the Bullwhip Effect, a very real and vexing phenomenon that occurs in forecast-driven distribution systems.
Essentially, when there are multiple parties in a distribution system, the imperfections in each player's forecasts (no forecast is consistently perfect) compound to wreak increasing havoc over time, even if demand stays relatively stable.
Grasping how this works is somewhat non-intuitive…
Why the Bullwhip Effect All But Guarantees Another Poorly-Handled Liquidity Crisis
by Adam TaggartOne of my more memorable moments in business school came during an Operations class. The topic for the day was the Bullwhip Effect, a very real and vexing phenomenon that occurs in forecast-driven distribution systems.
Essentially, when there are multiple parties in a distribution system, the imperfections in each player's forecasts (no forecast is consistently perfect) compound to wreak increasing havoc over time, even if demand stays relatively stable.
Grasping how this works is somewhat non-intuitive…
by
JW
by
Chris Martenson
In 1996, demographers William Strauss and Neil Howe published the book The Fourth Turning. This study of generational cycles ("turnings") in America revealed predictable social trends that recur throughout history, and warned of a coming crisis (a "fourth turning") based on this research.
Fourth turnings are defined by disorder and great changes brought on by a breakdown of the systems and operating principles that dominated the prior three turnings.
Neil Howe: The Fourth Turning Has Arrived
by Chris MartensonIn 1996, demographers William Strauss and Neil Howe published the book The Fourth Turning. This study of generational cycles ("turnings") in America revealed predictable social trends that recur throughout history, and warned of a coming crisis (a "fourth turning") based on this research.
Fourth turnings are defined by disorder and great changes brought on by a breakdown of the systems and operating principles that dominated the prior three turnings.
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