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by Chris Martenson

True Prosperity

by Chris Martenson 
Tuesday, April 17, 2012

Executive Summary

  • Why once you understand the oil situation, you understand how systemic change is inevitable
  • Why to expect a major financial crisis this year
  • Why now is the best time to understand what true prosperity is (beyond just money), and how it should shape your priorities in advance of the coming changes
  • Our guidance on where to focus your efforts most for the greatest returns

Part I: The Trouble with Money

If you have not yet read Part I, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

Part II: True Prosperity

In understanding material wealth, the role of energy — and particularly oil, in today’s world — is hard to underestimate. 

Primary Wealth

This point cannot be made often enough: Oil is responsible for everything we see around us.

This means that oil is responsible for most everything we might think is delivered by our economy. Which means that oil is the source of nearly all wealth.

As Gregor Macdonald recently penned for us in an excellent report

True Prosperity
PREVIEW by Chris Martenson

True Prosperity

by Chris Martenson 
Tuesday, April 17, 2012

Executive Summary

  • Why once you understand the oil situation, you understand how systemic change is inevitable
  • Why to expect a major financial crisis this year
  • Why now is the best time to understand what true prosperity is (beyond just money), and how it should shape your priorities in advance of the coming changes
  • Our guidance on where to focus your efforts most for the greatest returns

Part I: The Trouble with Money

If you have not yet read Part I, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

Part II: True Prosperity

In understanding material wealth, the role of energy — and particularly oil, in today’s world — is hard to underestimate. 

Primary Wealth

This point cannot be made often enough: Oil is responsible for everything we see around us.

This means that oil is responsible for most everything we might think is delivered by our economy. Which means that oil is the source of nearly all wealth.

As Gregor Macdonald recently penned for us in an excellent report

by charleshughsmith

Why a Near-Term Market Rollover is Probable

by Charles Hugh Smith, contributing editor
Wednesday, April 11, 2012

Executive Summary

  • A plethora of technical indicators show a breakdown is in progress
  • The key charts you need to be aware of
  • Time to place your bets: higher equity prices or higher interest rates?
  • Why a defense strategy in the near term is critical for those holding stocks and bonds

Part I: Are We Heading for Another 2008?

If you have not yet read Part I, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

Part II: Why a Near-Term Market Rollover is Probable

In Part I, we summarized the global financial meltdown of 2008 as recognition that the collateral beneath an enormous inverted pyramid of leveraged debt had vanished, while all the monetary and fiscal tricks of central banks and governments failed to sustain the illusion of sufficient collateral.

Once again we find that massive, sustained intervention in global financial markets is being touted as successful – everything has been “fixed,” markets have been “stabilized,” and a global “recovery” is well underway,

If we believe this, we might be exposed to a dramatic downside should 2012 turn out to be another 2008, when markets realized that intervention did not create collateral, but instead a temporary illusion of sufficient collateral. 

Why A Near-Term Market Rollover is Probable
PREVIEW by charleshughsmith

Why a Near-Term Market Rollover is Probable

by Charles Hugh Smith, contributing editor
Wednesday, April 11, 2012

Executive Summary

  • A plethora of technical indicators show a breakdown is in progress
  • The key charts you need to be aware of
  • Time to place your bets: higher equity prices or higher interest rates?
  • Why a defense strategy in the near term is critical for those holding stocks and bonds

Part I: Are We Heading for Another 2008?

If you have not yet read Part I, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

Part II: Why a Near-Term Market Rollover is Probable

In Part I, we summarized the global financial meltdown of 2008 as recognition that the collateral beneath an enormous inverted pyramid of leveraged debt had vanished, while all the monetary and fiscal tricks of central banks and governments failed to sustain the illusion of sufficient collateral.

Once again we find that massive, sustained intervention in global financial markets is being touted as successful – everything has been “fixed,” markets have been “stabilized,” and a global “recovery” is well underway,

If we believe this, we might be exposed to a dramatic downside should 2012 turn out to be another 2008, when markets realized that intervention did not create collateral, but instead a temporary illusion of sufficient collateral. 

by Gregor Macdonald

Promising Investments as the Race for BTUs Heats Up

by Gregor Macdonald, contributing editor
Tuesday, April 3, 2012

Executive Summary

  • Three attractive sectors to invest in early as we enter the post-oil economy
  • The transition away from oil has already begun — which energy sectors are leading?
  • The key trends over the next five years
  • How scarcity — and inflation — will manifest in this next phase

Part I: The Race for BTUs

If you have not yet read Part I, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

Part II: Promising Investments as the Race for BTUs Heats Up

Hopefully readers will not be too shocked by my openhandedness towards a cyclical global expansion — restrained by oil for sure, but made possible by several years of continued reflationary monetary policy and the ability of humans to tactically access new sources of energy.

Let’s remember that a tremendous amount of pain, in industrial terms, has already been taken by the OECD over the past 7 years as it shed nearly 15% of its oil demand. Readers will also recall my previous essays, in which I warned that an export boom was continuing to unfold in the United States. And readers of my work over the past several years know I’ve been adamant that the 5 billion people in the developing world have plowed right through the 2008 financial crisis increasing their reliance on coal.

Thus, I identify three areas of investment as the world stumbles forward with poor growth in the OECD, restrained by oil but becoming increasingly desperate to find some — any — additional energy resources. These are not stock recommendations, nor am I making a timing call as to when to invest in these areas. Rather, these are indicative of three means by which an investor could participate in emerging, secular trends over the next 2 to 4 years.

Promising Investments as the Race for BTUs Heats Up
PREVIEW by Gregor Macdonald

Promising Investments as the Race for BTUs Heats Up

by Gregor Macdonald, contributing editor
Tuesday, April 3, 2012

Executive Summary

  • Three attractive sectors to invest in early as we enter the post-oil economy
  • The transition away from oil has already begun — which energy sectors are leading?
  • The key trends over the next five years
  • How scarcity — and inflation — will manifest in this next phase

Part I: The Race for BTUs

If you have not yet read Part I, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

Part II: Promising Investments as the Race for BTUs Heats Up

Hopefully readers will not be too shocked by my openhandedness towards a cyclical global expansion — restrained by oil for sure, but made possible by several years of continued reflationary monetary policy and the ability of humans to tactically access new sources of energy.

Let’s remember that a tremendous amount of pain, in industrial terms, has already been taken by the OECD over the past 7 years as it shed nearly 15% of its oil demand. Readers will also recall my previous essays, in which I warned that an export boom was continuing to unfold in the United States. And readers of my work over the past several years know I’ve been adamant that the 5 billion people in the developing world have plowed right through the 2008 financial crisis increasing their reliance on coal.

Thus, I identify three areas of investment as the world stumbles forward with poor growth in the OECD, restrained by oil but becoming increasingly desperate to find some — any — additional energy resources. These are not stock recommendations, nor am I making a timing call as to when to invest in these areas. Rather, these are indicative of three means by which an investor could participate in emerging, secular trends over the next 2 to 4 years.

by Chris Martenson

I have just returned from a trip to Canada, where I had the chance to present the core ideas of the Crash Course to audiences in Alberta and the city of Guelph. The message was well received in both locations, and I am heartened to see the great work happening across Canada, to not only learn about but act on issues related to the intersection of the economy, energy, and other natural resources.

It was also my distinct pleasure to meet several long-time subscribers along the way, and to chat with you all (hello again!). The most typical refrain I heard from you was why don’t more people see things this way? That is something we’ll be covering in greater detail here in the future, especially once the new website is up and launched and we have a better platform and venue for offering such material. I will note that one of the more important elements of our weekend seminar offerings is on exactly this subject. Our only other seminar being offered in 2012 is on the last weekend of June at Kripalu, and it would be a pleasure to see you there.

On to the markets and other thoughts…

Doing It Right in Canada
PREVIEW by Chris Martenson

I have just returned from a trip to Canada, where I had the chance to present the core ideas of the Crash Course to audiences in Alberta and the city of Guelph. The message was well received in both locations, and I am heartened to see the great work happening across Canada, to not only learn about but act on issues related to the intersection of the economy, energy, and other natural resources.

It was also my distinct pleasure to meet several long-time subscribers along the way, and to chat with you all (hello again!). The most typical refrain I heard from you was why don’t more people see things this way? That is something we’ll be covering in greater detail here in the future, especially once the new website is up and launched and we have a better platform and venue for offering such material. I will note that one of the more important elements of our weekend seminar offerings is on exactly this subject. Our only other seminar being offered in 2012 is on the last weekend of June at Kripalu, and it would be a pleasure to see you there.

On to the markets and other thoughts…

by Chris Martenson

How High and When to Sell?

by Chris Martenson
Wednesday, March 28, 2012

Executive Summary

  • Confiscation and/or excessive taxation of gold seem low risks at the moment
  • Our price projections for gold
  • How to know when to sell your gold
  • What to exchange your gold for

Part I: Gold is Manipulated (But That’s Okay)

If you have not yet read Part I, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

Part II: How High and When to Sell?

Confiscation and/or Taxation

Here is a quick aside on the prospect of confiscation and/or additional and punitive taxation of gold (and silver) because it comes up often. I think neither is especially likely at this point.

Confiscation will become a concern for me if:

  • Gold is ever remonetized. Should gold become the international choice of cross-border balancing, as I expect it might some day, the chance of it being ‘nationalized’ will skyrocket. However, as was true in the 1930s in the US, I fully expect that holders of gold will be compensated for their holdings. 
  • Gold is demanded for oil. Should a current oil-exporting nation demand that it be paid in gold instead of cash, I would expect gold to be nationalized.
  • Gold crosses $5,000/ounce. Once gold becomes a significant store of value compared to other sources such as money market funds or 401k plans, it might become a target of choice for revenue-strapped governments. As it is right now — on a relative basis vs. the equity or bond markets — the size of the entire gold market is a tiny, puny store of value, and therefore not really worth the government’s effort.

Should any of these things change, I believe we will have weeks, if not many months, of forewarning of confiscation or additional taxation — and my alert service will have you prepared well in advance.

There will be rumblings and discussions and other warning signs to forewarn that a change is coming, if one ever does. For now it seems rather unlikely that either confiscation or burdensome taxation is a near and present concern to hold.

How High and When to Sell?
PREVIEW by Chris Martenson

How High and When to Sell?

by Chris Martenson
Wednesday, March 28, 2012

Executive Summary

  • Confiscation and/or excessive taxation of gold seem low risks at the moment
  • Our price projections for gold
  • How to know when to sell your gold
  • What to exchange your gold for

Part I: Gold is Manipulated (But That’s Okay)

If you have not yet read Part I, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

Part II: How High and When to Sell?

Confiscation and/or Taxation

Here is a quick aside on the prospect of confiscation and/or additional and punitive taxation of gold (and silver) because it comes up often. I think neither is especially likely at this point.

Confiscation will become a concern for me if:

  • Gold is ever remonetized. Should gold become the international choice of cross-border balancing, as I expect it might some day, the chance of it being ‘nationalized’ will skyrocket. However, as was true in the 1930s in the US, I fully expect that holders of gold will be compensated for their holdings. 
  • Gold is demanded for oil. Should a current oil-exporting nation demand that it be paid in gold instead of cash, I would expect gold to be nationalized.
  • Gold crosses $5,000/ounce. Once gold becomes a significant store of value compared to other sources such as money market funds or 401k plans, it might become a target of choice for revenue-strapped governments. As it is right now — on a relative basis vs. the equity or bond markets — the size of the entire gold market is a tiny, puny store of value, and therefore not really worth the government’s effort.

Should any of these things change, I believe we will have weeks, if not many months, of forewarning of confiscation or additional taxation — and my alert service will have you prepared well in advance.

There will be rumblings and discussions and other warning signs to forewarn that a change is coming, if one ever does. For now it seems rather unlikely that either confiscation or burdensome taxation is a near and present concern to hold.

by Mark Nestmann

Important Consequences of Expatriation

by Mark Nestmann, contributing editor
Thursday, March 22, 2012
 

Part I: A Primer for Those Considering Expatriation

In Part I of this article, we describe a plan that any U.S. citizen can use to legally and permanently end their future obligation to pay U.S. tax on their worldwide income or estate.

If you have not yet read Part I, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

Part II: Important Consequences of Expatriation

 In this second part, we explain:

  • The nuts and bolts of expatriation, including the legal process of expatriation
  • The tax consequences of expatriation
  • The immigration consequences of expatriation
  • The pros and cons of U.S. investments once you expatriate
  • The tax consequences should you choose to spend more than a few months each year in the United States after expatriation
Expatriation: The Basics

Once you’ve obtained a second passport and qualified for residence in another country, you can begin the legal process of expatriation.

To do so, you must make an appointment with a U.S. consulate. You generally cannot expatriate within the territorial boundaries of the United States. The consular officer will explain the consequences of expatriation and have you sign some forms.

Two or more appointments may be necessary to complete the process. At the end of whatever sequence of visits applies at the consulate you choose, you’ll then hand in your U.S. passport. Anywhere from several weeks to several months later, you’ll receive an official document called a “Certificate of Loss of Nationality” (CLN). With the receipt of this document, you will have officially relinquished your U.S. nationality.

Important Consequences of Expatriation
PREVIEW by Mark Nestmann

Important Consequences of Expatriation

by Mark Nestmann, contributing editor
Thursday, March 22, 2012
 

Part I: A Primer for Those Considering Expatriation

In Part I of this article, we describe a plan that any U.S. citizen can use to legally and permanently end their future obligation to pay U.S. tax on their worldwide income or estate.

If you have not yet read Part I, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

Part II: Important Consequences of Expatriation

 In this second part, we explain:

  • The nuts and bolts of expatriation, including the legal process of expatriation
  • The tax consequences of expatriation
  • The immigration consequences of expatriation
  • The pros and cons of U.S. investments once you expatriate
  • The tax consequences should you choose to spend more than a few months each year in the United States after expatriation
Expatriation: The Basics

Once you’ve obtained a second passport and qualified for residence in another country, you can begin the legal process of expatriation.

To do so, you must make an appointment with a U.S. consulate. You generally cannot expatriate within the territorial boundaries of the United States. The consular officer will explain the consequences of expatriation and have you sign some forms.

Two or more appointments may be necessary to complete the process. At the end of whatever sequence of visits applies at the consulate you choose, you’ll then hand in your U.S. passport. Anywhere from several weeks to several months later, you’ll receive an official document called a “Certificate of Loss of Nationality” (CLN). With the receipt of this document, you will have officially relinquished your U.S. nationality.

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