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by Nomi Prins

Executive Summary

  • The biggest Mexico risk factors investors need to watch
    • Remittance risk
    • Currency risk
    • Capital flight risk
    • Oil price risk
    • Debt risk
  • What Mexico must prioritize going forward to secure its future

If you have not yet read Part 1: Trouble South Of The Border available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

Republican presidential candidate, Donald Trump has nabbed many a headline with his disparaging remarks on how Mexico is sending ‘bad’ Mexicans over the border to ostensibly steal US jobs and sell drugs. He has called US leaders ‘stupid’ for letting this happen. The truth of the US-Mexico economic relationship is entirely different.

According to Pew Research, between 2005 and 2010, 1.4 million immigrants moved back to Mexico from the US, 90 percent of them voluntarily.  The total amount of 11.3 million unauthorized immigrants to the US has remained stable, not increased, over the past five years, having risen from about 3.5 million in 1990 to a peak of 12.2 million in 2007. The figure dropped between 2007-09, mainly due to a decrease in immigration from Mexico. Since 2009, an average of about 350,000 new unauthorized immigrants have entered the US annually, of which less than a third are from Mexico, compared to one half before the financial crisis of 2008. (Source)

There are other misunderstandings about the economic and financial relationship between the US and Mexico that transcend raising constituent anger about faux population movements. There is the matter of…

Is Mexico The Next Greece?
PREVIEW by Nomi Prins

Executive Summary

  • The biggest Mexico risk factors investors need to watch
    • Remittance risk
    • Currency risk
    • Capital flight risk
    • Oil price risk
    • Debt risk
  • What Mexico must prioritize going forward to secure its future

If you have not yet read Part 1: Trouble South Of The Border available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

Republican presidential candidate, Donald Trump has nabbed many a headline with his disparaging remarks on how Mexico is sending ‘bad’ Mexicans over the border to ostensibly steal US jobs and sell drugs. He has called US leaders ‘stupid’ for letting this happen. The truth of the US-Mexico economic relationship is entirely different.

According to Pew Research, between 2005 and 2010, 1.4 million immigrants moved back to Mexico from the US, 90 percent of them voluntarily.  The total amount of 11.3 million unauthorized immigrants to the US has remained stable, not increased, over the past five years, having risen from about 3.5 million in 1990 to a peak of 12.2 million in 2007. The figure dropped between 2007-09, mainly due to a decrease in immigration from Mexico. Since 2009, an average of about 350,000 new unauthorized immigrants have entered the US annually, of which less than a third are from Mexico, compared to one half before the financial crisis of 2008. (Source)

There are other misunderstandings about the economic and financial relationship between the US and Mexico that transcend raising constituent anger about faux population movements. There is the matter of…

by charleshughsmith

Executive Summary

  • Energy plays a key role in sovereign economic (un)sustainability
  • The export boom is imploding
  • The neofeudal model is collapsing as 'serf' nations enter default
  • Take preparation now, while it still matters

If you have not yet read Part 1: Why Greece Is The Precursor To The Next Global Debt Crisis available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

In Part 1, we examined the core dynamics that expanded Greek debt to its current unmanageable size—currency/trade deficits and bailouts—and the enormous transfer of private bank debt to the public ledger via the Troika bailouts, only 10% of which trickled down to the Greek people.

There are two other dynamics beneath the surface theater, dynamics which are not unique to Greece but are characteristic of the most heavily indebted nations.

Food and Fuel Imports Drive Structural Imbalances and Debt/Currency Crises

In our recent podcast, Chris mentioned this chart of imported energy by nation. Note that the nations with crushing structural debt loads (the so-called PIIGS—Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain) also happen to be major importers of energy.

 

What does this have to do with Greece’s debt crisis? Let’s go back to the key driver of Greek debt—imports that far exceeded exports, not occasionally but structurally, year in and year out.  Money was borrowed to pay for those imports, interest accrued on the loans and then austerity was pressed on the debtor nations by the lenders as a means of extracting interest on the rising debts.

If a nation does not generate a significant percentage of its own energy and food needs, or export enough goods and services to offset its imports of energy and food…

More Sovereign Defaults Are Coming
PREVIEW by charleshughsmith

Executive Summary

  • Energy plays a key role in sovereign economic (un)sustainability
  • The export boom is imploding
  • The neofeudal model is collapsing as 'serf' nations enter default
  • Take preparation now, while it still matters

If you have not yet read Part 1: Why Greece Is The Precursor To The Next Global Debt Crisis available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

In Part 1, we examined the core dynamics that expanded Greek debt to its current unmanageable size—currency/trade deficits and bailouts—and the enormous transfer of private bank debt to the public ledger via the Troika bailouts, only 10% of which trickled down to the Greek people.

There are two other dynamics beneath the surface theater, dynamics which are not unique to Greece but are characteristic of the most heavily indebted nations.

Food and Fuel Imports Drive Structural Imbalances and Debt/Currency Crises

In our recent podcast, Chris mentioned this chart of imported energy by nation. Note that the nations with crushing structural debt loads (the so-called PIIGS—Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain) also happen to be major importers of energy.

 

What does this have to do with Greece’s debt crisis? Let’s go back to the key driver of Greek debt—imports that far exceeded exports, not occasionally but structurally, year in and year out.  Money was borrowed to pay for those imports, interest accrued on the loans and then austerity was pressed on the debtor nations by the lenders as a means of extracting interest on the rising debts.

If a nation does not generate a significant percentage of its own energy and food needs, or export enough goods and services to offset its imports of energy and food…

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