Premium Archives
by
Chris Martenson
Executive Summary
- The recent tanker attacks in the Gulf of Oman are both odd and murky
- Assessing what happens next in and around the Strait of Hormuz
- Recession watch! Many more signs of weakening with which to contend
- When the black swan(s) arrive the bubble(s) will burst
- Getting the timing right is going to be tricky, of course
If you have not yet read Part 1: Waiting For The Black Swan, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
There are a huge number of warning signs that a recession is imminent, if not already here, and the price of oil is one of them (more on the others later).
Right now, with oil inventories climbing despite relatively low global oil output, oil is saying “economic weakness is here.”
Perhaps the biggest “sour note” in the ongoing stock bull parade is the dramatic inversion of the yield curve, which means shorter maturity government paper is yielding more than longer maturity paper.
For example, you can get a higher yield on 3-month paper than 5-year paper. This key indicator has now been inverted for a full quarter, an historically accurate indicator of recession.
Another is the difference between 6-month and 3-month T-bills. Again, outside of a recession, we’ve never seen a reading as low as it is right now.
The reason I track the possibility of a recession so closely is because I don’t think that the vast majority of people will be ready to consider alternatives to the status quo as long as everything ‘seems fine.’ Despite a worsening trade war, despite weakening global trade, despite the many geopolitical risks, US and other equity markets continue to rise and seem impervious to any and all bad news.
Which is why I don’t think this bubble ends with mom and pop retail investors catching on and ducking out. It will ends when…
What Happens When War Meets Recession?
PREVIEW by Chris MartensonExecutive Summary
- The recent tanker attacks in the Gulf of Oman are both odd and murky
- Assessing what happens next in and around the Strait of Hormuz
- Recession watch! Many more signs of weakening with which to contend
- When the black swan(s) arrive the bubble(s) will burst
- Getting the timing right is going to be tricky, of course
If you have not yet read Part 1: Waiting For The Black Swan, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
There are a huge number of warning signs that a recession is imminent, if not already here, and the price of oil is one of them (more on the others later).
Right now, with oil inventories climbing despite relatively low global oil output, oil is saying “economic weakness is here.”
Perhaps the biggest “sour note” in the ongoing stock bull parade is the dramatic inversion of the yield curve, which means shorter maturity government paper is yielding more than longer maturity paper.
For example, you can get a higher yield on 3-month paper than 5-year paper. This key indicator has now been inverted for a full quarter, an historically accurate indicator of recession.
Another is the difference between 6-month and 3-month T-bills. Again, outside of a recession, we’ve never seen a reading as low as it is right now.
The reason I track the possibility of a recession so closely is because I don’t think that the vast majority of people will be ready to consider alternatives to the status quo as long as everything ‘seems fine.’ Despite a worsening trade war, despite weakening global trade, despite the many geopolitical risks, US and other equity markets continue to rise and seem impervious to any and all bad news.
Which is why I don’t think this bubble ends with mom and pop retail investors catching on and ducking out. It will ends when…
by
Adam Taggart
Executive Summary
- The nuts and bolts of expatriation, including the legal process of expatriation
- The tax consequences of expatriation
- The immigration consequences of expatriation
- The pros and cons of U.S. investments once you expatriate
- The tax consequences should you choose to spend more than a few months each year in the United States after expatriation
If you have not yet read Part 1: A Primer For Those Considering Expatriation, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
Expatriation: The Basics
Once you’ve obtained a second passport and qualified for residence in another country, you can begin the legal process of expatriation.
To do so, you must make an appointment with a U.S. consulate. You generally cannot expatriate within the territorial boundaries of the United States. The consular officer will explain the consequences of expatriation and have you sign some forms.
Two or more appointments may be necessary to complete the process. At the end of whatever sequence of visits applies at the consulate you choose, you’ll then hand in your U.S. passport. Anywhere from several weeks to several months later, you’ll receive an official document called a “Certificate of Loss of Nationality” (CLN). With the receipt of this document, you will have officially relinquished your U.S. nationality.
Income Tax Consequences of Expatriation
Once you give up your U.S. citizenship and passport, you have no further obligation to pay U.S. tax on your worldwide income. However, U.S. law imposes an…
Important Consequences Of Expatriation
PREVIEW by Adam TaggartExecutive Summary
- The nuts and bolts of expatriation, including the legal process of expatriation
- The tax consequences of expatriation
- The immigration consequences of expatriation
- The pros and cons of U.S. investments once you expatriate
- The tax consequences should you choose to spend more than a few months each year in the United States after expatriation
If you have not yet read Part 1: A Primer For Those Considering Expatriation, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
Expatriation: The Basics
Once you’ve obtained a second passport and qualified for residence in another country, you can begin the legal process of expatriation.
To do so, you must make an appointment with a U.S. consulate. You generally cannot expatriate within the territorial boundaries of the United States. The consular officer will explain the consequences of expatriation and have you sign some forms.
Two or more appointments may be necessary to complete the process. At the end of whatever sequence of visits applies at the consulate you choose, you’ll then hand in your U.S. passport. Anywhere from several weeks to several months later, you’ll receive an official document called a “Certificate of Loss of Nationality” (CLN). With the receipt of this document, you will have officially relinquished your U.S. nationality.
Income Tax Consequences of Expatriation
Once you give up your U.S. citizenship and passport, you have no further obligation to pay U.S. tax on your worldwide income. However, U.S. law imposes an…
by
Chris Martenson
Executive Summary
- The government is NOT riding to our rescue here. So don’t count on it.
- Our decisions today will determine our destiny tomorrow
- The most important single insight to base your future plans on
- How to focus the time you have now
If you have not yet read Part 1: These Are ‘The Good Old Days’, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
There’s no Plan B in the works. I’ve not read a single national strategy that incorporates the ideas of Peak Oil, Peak Net Energy, or how to transition from our current system of money and credit that’s based on exponential expansion to one that does not require endless growth to function.
And yet, we continue to consume the world’s resources at an ever-increasing pace:
Preparing For The Reckoning
PREVIEW by Chris MartensonExecutive Summary
- The government is NOT riding to our rescue here. So don’t count on it.
- Our decisions today will determine our destiny tomorrow
- The most important single insight to base your future plans on
- How to focus the time you have now
If you have not yet read Part 1: These Are ‘The Good Old Days’, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
There’s no Plan B in the works. I’ve not read a single national strategy that incorporates the ideas of Peak Oil, Peak Net Energy, or how to transition from our current system of money and credit that’s based on exponential expansion to one that does not require endless growth to function.
And yet, we continue to consume the world’s resources at an ever-increasing pace:
by
Chris Martenson
Executive Summary
- Changing your fate requires action today
- Here’s the action/opportunity I’m most focused on today in my own life
- How to step into an “elder” role, if you have the courage
- How to create a world worth inheriting
If you have not yet read Part 1: The Path From Survival To Significance, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
Our mission at Peak Prosperity is to “Create a world worth inheriting”. Every single day we feel like we’re doing everything we can to move towards this goal. But some days, it feels like our efforts may not be nearly enough to get the job done.
But while our own actions may be insufficient, they are necessary. And paired with the steps you take, and those of the hundreds of thousands of other PeakProsperity.com readers, our odds for success exponentially improve.
I’d like to slip out of ‘convincing mode’ for this piece. Because so many people still seem to be unaware of our many predicaments, I often find myself leaning towards lining up all the evidence, in the hope that I can open a few more eyes.
But not today. We all know the score. We’re collectively on a terribly unsustainable course. The data is overwhelming at this point.
All of this then, leads to the idea that to create a world worth inheriting we have to first admit that our society is not on track to do that.
It’s up to us to plan accordingly, based on what our own eyes, ears and hearts are telling us is true.
Mine tell me that there’s a better way, one that does not involve squabbling like primitive monkeys over key resources.
And then we must be willing to change on a very deep level. Both internally so we can be proper elders and compatriots to those around us, and externally as we move into a life of consuming less.
I look around and I see people using their big brains to work with nature, create abundance, and believe in ourselves as creative forces for good.
The opportunities that are capturing my personal attention most and are inspiring me into new action in my own life are…
Creating A World Worth Inheriting
PREVIEW by Chris MartensonExecutive Summary
- Changing your fate requires action today
- Here’s the action/opportunity I’m most focused on today in my own life
- How to step into an “elder” role, if you have the courage
- How to create a world worth inheriting
If you have not yet read Part 1: The Path From Survival To Significance, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
Our mission at Peak Prosperity is to “Create a world worth inheriting”. Every single day we feel like we’re doing everything we can to move towards this goal. But some days, it feels like our efforts may not be nearly enough to get the job done.
But while our own actions may be insufficient, they are necessary. And paired with the steps you take, and those of the hundreds of thousands of other PeakProsperity.com readers, our odds for success exponentially improve.
I’d like to slip out of ‘convincing mode’ for this piece. Because so many people still seem to be unaware of our many predicaments, I often find myself leaning towards lining up all the evidence, in the hope that I can open a few more eyes.
But not today. We all know the score. We’re collectively on a terribly unsustainable course. The data is overwhelming at this point.
All of this then, leads to the idea that to create a world worth inheriting we have to first admit that our society is not on track to do that.
It’s up to us to plan accordingly, based on what our own eyes, ears and hearts are telling us is true.
Mine tell me that there’s a better way, one that does not involve squabbling like primitive monkeys over key resources.
And then we must be willing to change on a very deep level. Both internally so we can be proper elders and compatriots to those around us, and externally as we move into a life of consuming less.
I look around and I see people using their big brains to work with nature, create abundance, and believe in ourselves as creative forces for good.
The opportunities that are capturing my personal attention most and are inspiring me into new action in my own life are…
by
Chris Martenson
- How financialization facilitates wealth transfer
- How to escape the slow squeeze of financialization
- Understanding mannon
- How to prepare for the future
If you have not yet read Part 1: The Company Store , available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
Given that the powers that be are highly motivated to keep their power and privilege intact, we all need to be prepared for the trends to continue for a while longer, perhaps a lot longer, before they change.
In fact, I think we need to get this right out on the table; nothing will change until something forces that change.
Whether that’s an ecological catastrophe that cannot be ignored any longer, a financial collapse, or a social rebellion is unknowable. But something along those lines.
Power never gives up its advantages willingly. Especially not a power structure so far gone that it shrugs when its children (as young as 5!) and farmers alike are resorting to suicide as a means of escape from its depredations and oversights.
Especially not from a system of banking that doesn’t even question handing out many trillions of dollars against dodgy collateral (“it was an emergency!”).
Meanwhile you and I have to live our lives knowing that there’s a rigged game afoot that is rather unhinged and bottomless in its desire for more (mammon is winning).
The opportunity, such as it is, is for us to first recognize this game for what it is (rigged) and to realign our own actions with the future we wish to see. Step one is…
It’s Time to Respond
PREVIEW by Chris Martenson- How financialization facilitates wealth transfer
- How to escape the slow squeeze of financialization
- Understanding mannon
- How to prepare for the future
If you have not yet read Part 1: The Company Store , available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
Given that the powers that be are highly motivated to keep their power and privilege intact, we all need to be prepared for the trends to continue for a while longer, perhaps a lot longer, before they change.
In fact, I think we need to get this right out on the table; nothing will change until something forces that change.
Whether that’s an ecological catastrophe that cannot be ignored any longer, a financial collapse, or a social rebellion is unknowable. But something along those lines.
Power never gives up its advantages willingly. Especially not a power structure so far gone that it shrugs when its children (as young as 5!) and farmers alike are resorting to suicide as a means of escape from its depredations and oversights.
Especially not from a system of banking that doesn’t even question handing out many trillions of dollars against dodgy collateral (“it was an emergency!”).
Meanwhile you and I have to live our lives knowing that there’s a rigged game afoot that is rather unhinged and bottomless in its desire for more (mammon is winning).
The opportunity, such as it is, is for us to first recognize this game for what it is (rigged) and to realign our own actions with the future we wish to see. Step one is…
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