Dear Peak Prosperity members…I couldn’t wait until tomorrow’s Fat Pipe to communicate recent events. They seem that urgent to me. The data below explains why I am spending half of each day preparing, topping everything off, and getting ready.
The quick version is that it’s far more than the Strait of Hormuz being closed down. Russia’s oil exporting abilities have come under the largest, most sustained, and effective attacks since the Iran War started…and the US and Europe have said nothing at all about those attacks. Which means they are approved and sanctioned. “Somebody” is busy destroying global oil exports, and I seriously doubt they’ve thought their cunning plan all the way through.
No End In Sight
To begin, Trump is sounding more and more unhinged, making threats to Iran while also claiming that they have been “militarily obliterated.”
COUNTERPOINT: The "militarily obliterated" country of Iran hit multiple US military bases last night, most of which are truly obliterated, and rained missiles down upon Israel. pic.twitter.com/yJ0aYNVoNC
— Chris Martenson (@chrismartenson) March 26, 2026
Trump is looking quite stressed of late, and is almost certain to escalate the war if he doesn’t get his way. Spoiler, he’s not going to get his way.
Why not? Because Iran has been very clear about their 5 demands for the war’s end. Iran has repeatedly said “No talks!” until these five conditions are met:
- A complete halt to “aggression and assassinations” by the US and Israel.
- Concrete guarantees that war will not be imposed on Iran again.
- Guaranteed and clearly defined war reparations.
- An end to the war across all fronts, including for all resistance groups in the region.
- International recognition and guarantees of Iran’s sovereign authority over the Strait of Hormuz.
Numbers 2 and 3 are in bold because those are conditions that winners impose on losers. There’s nothing to suggest that Trump personally or the US more generally are able to accept defeat. Especially not so soon. Heck the war is barely a month old. That’s a pretty fast losing pace.
But, make no mistake, the US has
by davefairtex 
