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David Collum

Image | David Collum: We’ve Got A Recession Coming
David Collum: We’ve Got A Recession Coming

Whether or not you've had time yet to plow your way through David Collum's excellent 2016 Year in Review, our annual podcast with Dave always brings additional color to light — and this year's is no exception.

David Collum: We’ve Got A Recession Coming

Whether or not you've had time yet to plow your way through David Collum's excellent 2016 Year in Review, our annual podcast with Dave always brings additional color to light — and this year's is no exception.

Image | 2016 Year In Review
2016 Year In Review

Every year, friend-of-the-site David Collum writes a detailed "Year in Review" synopsis full of keen perspective and plenty of wit. This year's is no exception. As with past years, he has graciously selected PeakProsperity.com as the site where it will be published in full. It's quite longer than our usual posts, but worth the time to read in full.

2016 Year In Review

Every year, friend-of-the-site David Collum writes a detailed "Year in Review" synopsis full of keen perspective and plenty of wit. This year's is no exception. As with past years, he has graciously selected PeakProsperity.com as the site where it will be published in full. It's quite longer than our usual posts, but worth the time to read in full.

Image | David Collum: The Next Recession Will Be A Barn-Burner
David Collum: The Next Recession Will Be A Barn-Burner

For those who enjoyed his encyclopedic 2015: Year In Review, this week we spend an hour with David Collum to ask: After processing through all of that information, what do you think the future is most likely to bring?

Perhaps it comes as little surprise that he sees the global economy headed back down into recession, one that will be deeper and more damaging than the 2008 crisis.

David Collum: The Next Recession Will Be A Barn-Burner

For those who enjoyed his encyclopedic 2015: Year In Review, this week we spend an hour with David Collum to ask: After processing through all of that information, what do you think the future is most likely to bring?

Perhaps it comes as little surprise that he sees the global economy headed back down into recession, one that will be deeper and more damaging than the 2008 crisis.

Image | 2015 Year In Review
2015 Year In Review

I am penning my seventh “Year in Review.” These summaries began exclusively for myself, evolved into a sort of holiday cheer for a couple hundred e-quaintances with whom I had been affiliating since my earliest days as a market bear in the late ’90s, and metastasized into the Tower of Babble—longer than a Ken Burns miniseries—summarizing the human follies that capture my attention each year.

I wade through the year’s most extreme lunacies as well as a few special topics while trying to find the overarching themes. Somehow 450 pages of notes, quotes, and anecdotes describing a web of interconnected concepts must be distilled into the “Year in Review,” all in a few short weeks. So let’s head to the choppers.
2015 Year In Review

I am penning my seventh “Year in Review.” These summaries began exclusively for myself, evolved into a sort of holiday cheer for a couple hundred e-quaintances with whom I had been affiliating since my earliest days as a market bear in the late ’90s, and metastasized into the Tower of Babble—longer than a Ken Burns miniseries—summarizing the human follies that capture my attention each year.

I wade through the year’s most extreme lunacies as well as a few special topics while trying to find the overarching themes. Somehow 450 pages of notes, quotes, and anecdotes describing a web of interconnected concepts must be distilled into the “Year in Review,” all in a few short weeks. So let’s head to the choppers.
Image | 2015 Year In Review (Part 2)
2015 Year In Review (Part 2)
As regards the banks, we have come down from the trees but are not out of the woods yet.
 
The six biggest banks are ginormous—50% larger than they were at the previous high at the start of the crisis—but the sector was relatively quiet this year. Hundreds of billions in fines have been levied by various governmental Rainbow Coalitions.
 
As statutes of limitations began to run out, Eric Holder and authorities declared there would be no prosecutions of individuals responsible for the crisis.

 
2015 Year In Review (Part 2)
As regards the banks, we have come down from the trees but are not out of the woods yet.
 
The six biggest banks are ginormous—50% larger than they were at the previous high at the start of the crisis—but the sector was relatively quiet this year. Hundreds of billions in fines have been levied by various governmental Rainbow Coalitions.
 
As statutes of limitations began to run out, Eric Holder and authorities declared there would be no prosecutions of individuals responsible for the crisis.

 
Image | David Collum: We’re Now Stuck In A Global Game Of Tetris
David Collum: We’re Now Stuck In A Global Game Of Tetris

Whether or not you've had time yet to plow your way through David Collum's excellent 2014 Year in Review, our annual podcast with Dave always brings additional color to light — and this year's is no exception.

David Collum: We’re Now Stuck In A Global Game Of Tetris

Whether or not you've had time yet to plow your way through David Collum's excellent 2014 Year in Review, our annual podcast with Dave always brings additional color to light — and this year's is no exception.

Image | 2014 Year in Review: Part 2
2014 Year in Review: Part 2

This year has been all about risk—existential risk. Some of it seemed to dissipate and some lingers.  Market valuations remain risky—regression to the mean could easily provide a 50% haircut and more if we observe regression through the mean. This has not come to pass, but the risk is very real.

Those who seek risk in markets will eventually find it.
2014 Year in Review: Part 2

This year has been all about risk—existential risk. Some of it seemed to dissipate and some lingers.  Market valuations remain risky—regression to the mean could easily provide a 50% haircut and more if we observe regression through the mean. This has not come to pass, but the risk is very real.

Those who seek risk in markets will eventually find it.
Image | 2014 Year in Review
2014 Year in Review

I have not seen a year in which so many risks—some truly existential—piled up so quickly. Each risk has its own, often unknown, probability of morphing into a destructive force. Groping for a metaphor—I love metaphors and similes—I feel like we’re in the final throes of a geopolitical Game of Tetris as financial and political authorities race to place the pieces correctly. But the acceleration is palpable. The proximate trigger for pain and ultimately a collapse can be small, as anyone who’s ever stepped barefoot on a Lego knows.
2014 Year in Review

I have not seen a year in which so many risks—some truly existential—piled up so quickly. Each risk has its own, often unknown, probability of morphing into a destructive force. Groping for a metaphor—I love metaphors and similes—I feel like we’re in the final throes of a geopolitical Game of Tetris as financial and political authorities race to place the pieces correctly. But the acceleration is palpable. The proximate trigger for pain and ultimately a collapse can be small, as anyone who’s ever stepped barefoot on a Lego knows.
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