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Chris Martenson

Image | The Rout Is On
The Rout Is On
 PREVIEW

The rout is on.  More market weakness lies dead ahead – unless the Fed reverses course, and soon.

Eight weeks ago, on March 8, 2011, I wrote that there was a very high chance of a rout in all of the major markets – stocks, bonds, and commodities – due to the sudden disappearance of quantitative easing (QE) money at the end of June.

Since markets are supposed to be forward-looking, if the ‘rout’ thesis is correct, we’d expect the markets to begin selling off well before the last POMO. Perhaps even right about, oh, say this past week.

But first, let’s review what I said in The Coming Rout:

The Rout Is On
 PREVIEW

The rout is on.  More market weakness lies dead ahead – unless the Fed reverses course, and soon.

Eight weeks ago, on March 8, 2011, I wrote that there was a very high chance of a rout in all of the major markets – stocks, bonds, and commodities – due to the sudden disappearance of quantitative easing (QE) money at the end of June.

Since markets are supposed to be forward-looking, if the ‘rout’ thesis is correct, we’d expect the markets to begin selling off well before the last POMO. Perhaps even right about, oh, say this past week.

But first, let’s review what I said in The Coming Rout:

Image | Addison Wiggin: We Can’t Afford the Solutions Needed to Reverse Our Decline
Addison Wiggin: We Can’t Afford the Solutions Needed to Reverse Our Decline

"Everything is out of whack. We can’t be the policeman to the world and provide a safety net for all citizens if we don’t have the tax rates or the income to the government that supports all that. It seems like common sense, and it should be common sense. But something happens when you take it from a discussion that you and I might have to the political level, which is often just driven by emotion and public speech. Somehow the desire, the continued promising that the government can solve all problems, meets with jubilation and boasts. And people want to just keep going, and they never want to actually accept that at some point the unsustainable has to end. I mean, that’s the nature of the world.

It gets frustrating to think that we’re at a point where politicians are really going to have to work together to come up with solutions that are going to be unpopular to anyone – and I struggle to think that we’re even capable of putting together a set of solutions that will work. It might be too late."

So states Addison Wiggin, executive publisher of Agora Financial and executive producer of I.O.U.S.A. Strong words from a man who has been writing for over ten years about how our debt-inebriated economy will eventually collapse upon itself – but is still shocked and saddened to see his predictions play out in reality. He sees the global economy to be at a point of massive destructive transformation – but full of opportunity for informed investors, and, ulitmately, for the system that succeeds it.

Click the play button below to listen to Chris' interview with Addison Wiggin (runtime 41m:50s):

[swf file="http://media.PeakProsperity.com/audio/addison-wiggin-2011-04-29.mp3"]

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In this podcast, Addison expounds on:

Addison Wiggin: We Can’t Afford the Solutions Needed to Reverse Our Decline

"Everything is out of whack. We can’t be the policeman to the world and provide a safety net for all citizens if we don’t have the tax rates or the income to the government that supports all that. It seems like common sense, and it should be common sense. But something happens when you take it from a discussion that you and I might have to the political level, which is often just driven by emotion and public speech. Somehow the desire, the continued promising that the government can solve all problems, meets with jubilation and boasts. And people want to just keep going, and they never want to actually accept that at some point the unsustainable has to end. I mean, that’s the nature of the world.

It gets frustrating to think that we’re at a point where politicians are really going to have to work together to come up with solutions that are going to be unpopular to anyone – and I struggle to think that we’re even capable of putting together a set of solutions that will work. It might be too late."

So states Addison Wiggin, executive publisher of Agora Financial and executive producer of I.O.U.S.A. Strong words from a man who has been writing for over ten years about how our debt-inebriated economy will eventually collapse upon itself – but is still shocked and saddened to see his predictions play out in reality. He sees the global economy to be at a point of massive destructive transformation – but full of opportunity for informed investors, and, ulitmately, for the system that succeeds it.

Click the play button below to listen to Chris' interview with Addison Wiggin (runtime 41m:50s):

[swf file="http://media.PeakProsperity.com/audio/addison-wiggin-2011-04-29.mp3"]

Download/Play the Podcast
Read the Transcript of the Podcast
Report a Problem Playing the Podcast

In this podcast, Addison expounds on:

Image | Simon Black: The Most Sound Opportunities Are Outside the Western World
Simon Black: The Most Sound Opportunities Are Outside the Western World

"In the long run, as decades of capital misallocations and inefficiencies in the global economy get shaken out, there’s going to be a redistribution of the wealth. And I think the wealth is going to go to where it’s treated best.

And at the end of the day, that’s really what I’m looking for: the places that have the most solid fundamentals and the best growth potential."

So states Simon Black, who travels the world (over 20 countries in the past 3 months) in order to assess and report on the investment and lifestyle opportunities offered by various international destinations for the readers of his blog, SovereignMan.com. His boots-on-the-ground observations lead him to conclude that there are a number of resource-rich and fiscally sound developing nations that are much better positioned to meet the future than the US and its developed counterparts. Smart investors, in his opinion, can't afford to ignore the stability and returns (both financial and lifestyle) that these countries offer. They should be asking themselves: Do I have sufficient exposure to these opportunities?

Click the play button below to listen to Chris' interview with Simon Black (runtime 33m:25s):

[swf file="http://media.PeakProsperity.com/audio/simon-black-2011-04-28-final.mp3"]

Download/Play the Podcast
Read the Transcript of the Podcast
Report a Problem Playing the Podcast

In this podcast, Simon details:

Simon Black: The Most Sound Opportunities Are Outside the Western World

"In the long run, as decades of capital misallocations and inefficiencies in the global economy get shaken out, there’s going to be a redistribution of the wealth. And I think the wealth is going to go to where it’s treated best.

And at the end of the day, that’s really what I’m looking for: the places that have the most solid fundamentals and the best growth potential."

So states Simon Black, who travels the world (over 20 countries in the past 3 months) in order to assess and report on the investment and lifestyle opportunities offered by various international destinations for the readers of his blog, SovereignMan.com. His boots-on-the-ground observations lead him to conclude that there are a number of resource-rich and fiscally sound developing nations that are much better positioned to meet the future than the US and its developed counterparts. Smart investors, in his opinion, can't afford to ignore the stability and returns (both financial and lifestyle) that these countries offer. They should be asking themselves: Do I have sufficient exposure to these opportunities?

Click the play button below to listen to Chris' interview with Simon Black (runtime 33m:25s):

[swf file="http://media.PeakProsperity.com/audio/simon-black-2011-04-28-final.mp3"]

Download/Play the Podcast
Read the Transcript of the Podcast
Report a Problem Playing the Podcast

In this podcast, Simon details:

Image | Axel Merk: Why Is Anyone Still Waiting to Sell the Dollar?
Axel Merk: Why Is Anyone Still Waiting to Sell the Dollar?

"The Fed can buy billions, even a trillion or so, but if and when the market is moving against the policymakers, then there is no stopping. The Fed cannot stem that tide. There is only so much that they can manage and so it is something that they have to watch very carefully. At the same time, they are not terribly concerned. If the bond market is falling, you do not know whether it is because of more economic growth or because of more inflation, and you really only know after the fact.

So for now people think “We have economic growth kicking in,” until the next economic numbers are not as great as expected, and so it is a bit like a "boiling-frog" syndrome. You print in all this money, you think everything is great, and you have some warning signs, but you think, “Things are moving along.” And by the time that you really see the damage you have created, it is quite late to undo this damage and it is going to be very, very expensive and painful."

So remarks Axel Merk, currency specialist and founder of the Merk Mutual Funds, who is perplexed by those waiting for additional warning signs to sell the dollar. In his view, we have all the evidence we need. He and Chris discuss the inner workings of the Fed and the course it is determinedly charting – and the looming dangers ahead for the US dollar.
Axel Merk: Why Is Anyone Still Waiting to Sell the Dollar?

"The Fed can buy billions, even a trillion or so, but if and when the market is moving against the policymakers, then there is no stopping. The Fed cannot stem that tide. There is only so much that they can manage and so it is something that they have to watch very carefully. At the same time, they are not terribly concerned. If the bond market is falling, you do not know whether it is because of more economic growth or because of more inflation, and you really only know after the fact.

So for now people think “We have economic growth kicking in,” until the next economic numbers are not as great as expected, and so it is a bit like a "boiling-frog" syndrome. You print in all this money, you think everything is great, and you have some warning signs, but you think, “Things are moving along.” And by the time that you really see the damage you have created, it is quite late to undo this damage and it is going to be very, very expensive and painful."

So remarks Axel Merk, currency specialist and founder of the Merk Mutual Funds, who is perplexed by those waiting for additional warning signs to sell the dollar. In his view, we have all the evidence we need. He and Chris discuss the inner workings of the Fed and the course it is determinedly charting – and the looming dangers ahead for the US dollar.
Image | Why You Should Get Busy Now
Why You Should Get Busy Now
 PREVIEW

I want to respond to a couple of member questions to the last report.  

Here are two flavors of the same question, written in response to “How This Will All Play Out,”  both wondering why I am advocating that people accelerate their plans, whatever they may be, to become more resilient.

Lemonyellowschwin wrote:

Chris wrote:

“If your plans include moving, selling a house, or making big improvements to your current house, I would strongly recommend putting those plans into high gear.”

Is this because of concerns about rapidly-rising interest rates (killing the ability to buy or sell real estate) and inflation increasing the cost of improvements?

nickbert wrote:

I myself am wondering the same thing. My family and I don’t own any real estate anymore (at least not in the US) and are not planning to buy anytime soon so that’s not an issue for us, but if there is another specific reason I would love to hear it.

As usual, there’s no easy answer to this, such as Because everything will stop working on June 12th, 2012 at 3:05 p.m.!! Nobody knows when the next difficulties will begin, obviously, or how serious they will be. Such is the nature of complex systems.

Given this, the best we can do is constantly weigh and then reweigh the various risks as circumstances change.

Why You Should Get Busy Now
 PREVIEW

I want to respond to a couple of member questions to the last report.  

Here are two flavors of the same question, written in response to “How This Will All Play Out,”  both wondering why I am advocating that people accelerate their plans, whatever they may be, to become more resilient.

Lemonyellowschwin wrote:

Chris wrote:

“If your plans include moving, selling a house, or making big improvements to your current house, I would strongly recommend putting those plans into high gear.”

Is this because of concerns about rapidly-rising interest rates (killing the ability to buy or sell real estate) and inflation increasing the cost of improvements?

nickbert wrote:

I myself am wondering the same thing. My family and I don’t own any real estate anymore (at least not in the US) and are not planning to buy anytime soon so that’s not an issue for us, but if there is another specific reason I would love to hear it.

As usual, there’s no easy answer to this, such as Because everything will stop working on June 12th, 2012 at 3:05 p.m.!! Nobody knows when the next difficulties will begin, obviously, or how serious they will be. Such is the nature of complex systems.

Given this, the best we can do is constantly weigh and then reweigh the various risks as circumstances change.

Image | How This Will Play Out
How This Will Play Out
 PREVIEW

How This Will Play Out

Tuesday, April 19, 2011

Executive Summary

  • Why downward pressure on the US dollar is building
  • What to expect when the Fed “ends” quantitative easing in June
  • The factors most likely to cause a major breakdown in the dollar
  • What you should do to protect against a dollar collapse
  • Why time is your most precious (and depleting) asset right now

Part I: The Breakdown Draws Near

If you have not yet read Part I, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

Part II: How This Will Play Out

Meanwhile…

Inflation continues to climb in every market except the United States, which tells us that US inflation statistics are probably wrong. In a global economy where the dollar is the world’s reserve currency, and given the fact that the dollar is down roughly 8% over the past year, it is practically impossible for inflation to be higher everywhere besides the US.

In Europe, the highest monthly gain in inflation in the record series was just recorded:

How This Will Play Out
 PREVIEW

How This Will Play Out

Tuesday, April 19, 2011

Executive Summary

  • Why downward pressure on the US dollar is building
  • What to expect when the Fed “ends” quantitative easing in June
  • The factors most likely to cause a major breakdown in the dollar
  • What you should do to protect against a dollar collapse
  • Why time is your most precious (and depleting) asset right now

Part I: The Breakdown Draws Near

If you have not yet read Part I, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

Part II: How This Will Play Out

Meanwhile…

Inflation continues to climb in every market except the United States, which tells us that US inflation statistics are probably wrong. In a global economy where the dollar is the world’s reserve currency, and given the fact that the dollar is down roughly 8% over the past year, it is practically impossible for inflation to be higher everywhere besides the US.

In Europe, the highest monthly gain in inflation in the record series was just recorded:

Image | The Breakdown Draws Near
The Breakdown Draws Near

Things are certainly speeding up, and it is my conclusion that we are not more than a year away from the next major financial and economic disruption.

Alas, predictions are tricky, especially about the future (credit: Yogi Berra), but here’s why I am convinced that the next big break is drawing near.
The Breakdown Draws Near

Things are certainly speeding up, and it is my conclusion that we are not more than a year away from the next major financial and economic disruption.

Alas, predictions are tricky, especially about the future (credit: Yogi Berra), but here’s why I am convinced that the next big break is drawing near.
Image | It Draws Near – Part II
It Draws Near – Part II
 PREVIEW

Meanwhile…

Inflation continues to climb in every market except the United States, which tells us that US inflation statistics are probably wrong. In a global economy where the dollar is the world’s reserve currency, and given the fact that the dollar is down roughly 8% over the past year, it is practically impossible for inflation to be higher everywhere besides the US.

In Europe, the highest monthly gain in inflation in the record series was just recorded:
It Draws Near – Part II
 PREVIEW

Meanwhile…

Inflation continues to climb in every market except the United States, which tells us that US inflation statistics are probably wrong. In a global economy where the dollar is the world’s reserve currency, and given the fact that the dollar is down roughly 8% over the past year, it is practically impossible for inflation to be higher everywhere besides the US.

In Europe, the highest monthly gain in inflation in the record series was just recorded:
Image | It Draws Near
It Draws Near
 PREVIEW

Things are certainly speeding up, and it is my conclusion that we are not more than a year away from the next major financial and economic disruption.

Alas, predictions are tricky, especially about the future (credit: Yogi Berra), but here’s why I am convinced that the next big break is drawing near.
It Draws Near
 PREVIEW

Things are certainly speeding up, and it is my conclusion that we are not more than a year away from the next major financial and economic disruption.

Alas, predictions are tricky, especially about the future (credit: Yogi Berra), but here’s why I am convinced that the next big break is drawing near.
Image | Insolvent and Going Deeper
Insolvent and Going Deeper

The US budget process is entirely out of control. By extension, its fiscal future is rather bleak.

All one has to do is back up two steps, entirely ignoring the meaningless budget scuffles currently ongoing in DC, to see that the federal government’s fiscal situation is in complete shambles. In fact, as things currently stand in terms of spending and revenues, the US government is insolvent – its liabilities vastly exceed its assets on a net-present-value basis.

Yes, Obama has just laid out a plan that calls for cutting some $4 trillion of new, incremental deficit additions over the next 12 years, but this merely obscures the fact that the deficit will still grow by a rather hefty amount nonetheless. Plans from both sides of the aisle call for adding more debt but at a slower pace. True, that’s progress of a sort, but not the type of progress you want to bring home to meet your mother.

Insolvent and Going Deeper

The US budget process is entirely out of control. By extension, its fiscal future is rather bleak.

All one has to do is back up two steps, entirely ignoring the meaningless budget scuffles currently ongoing in DC, to see that the federal government’s fiscal situation is in complete shambles. In fact, as things currently stand in terms of spending and revenues, the US government is insolvent – its liabilities vastly exceed its assets on a net-present-value basis.

Yes, Obama has just laid out a plan that calls for cutting some $4 trillion of new, incremental deficit additions over the next 12 years, but this merely obscures the fact that the deficit will still grow by a rather hefty amount nonetheless. Plans from both sides of the aisle call for adding more debt but at a slower pace. True, that’s progress of a sort, but not the type of progress you want to bring home to meet your mother.

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