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Chris Martenson

Image | Off the Cuff: Don’t Get Pessimistic on Gold
Off the Cuff: Don’t Get Pessimistic on Gold
 PREVIEW

In this week’s Off the Cuff with Mish & Chris podcast, Chris and Mish discuss:

  • Where to now?
    • There’s a whiff of deflation in the air as central banks posture and pontificate. Is this a harbinger of things to come, or a head-fake before the money printing resumes in earnest?
  • Gold
    • It’s been a rough few weeks for holders of the yellow metal. Has there been any fundamental shift affecting the reasons for holding gold?

Cross-currents and volatility define the period we’re in now. For investors, vigilance and defense should be the main priorities. But, it seems we’re closer to the end of this stage than the beginning, so be positioned for action soon.
Off the Cuff: Don’t Get Pessimistic on Gold
 PREVIEW

In this week’s Off the Cuff with Mish & Chris podcast, Chris and Mish discuss:

  • Where to now?
    • There’s a whiff of deflation in the air as central banks posture and pontificate. Is this a harbinger of things to come, or a head-fake before the money printing resumes in earnest?
  • Gold
    • It’s been a rough few weeks for holders of the yellow metal. Has there been any fundamental shift affecting the reasons for holding gold?

Cross-currents and volatility define the period we’re in now. For investors, vigilance and defense should be the main priorities. But, it seems we’re closer to the end of this stage than the beginning, so be positioned for action soon.
Image | Rick Rule: We’re Entering a Great Era for Resource Investing
Rick Rule: We’re Entering a Great Era for Resource Investing

Recently, we crossed the seven billion threshold for humans on the planet. Most of these people are desperately trying to get up the living standard curve. And that requires resources.

Simple math tells us there is going to be increasing competition for a steadily dwindling – in both quantity and quality – global pool of high-grade resources. This 'scramble for stuff' is going to be one of the key defining trends of this century. And while it will have game-changing repercussions across societies, economies, and geopolitics, we are at a moment in time where tremendous upside awaits investors who recognize today the true future value of key resources and secure meaningful exposure to them.

Rick Rule has made a successful and storied career as a resource investor, and has rarely seen as attractive an alignment for the space as he does today. What is there to be so optimistic about?
Rick Rule: We’re Entering a Great Era for Resource Investing

Recently, we crossed the seven billion threshold for humans on the planet. Most of these people are desperately trying to get up the living standard curve. And that requires resources.

Simple math tells us there is going to be increasing competition for a steadily dwindling – in both quantity and quality – global pool of high-grade resources. This 'scramble for stuff' is going to be one of the key defining trends of this century. And while it will have game-changing repercussions across societies, economies, and geopolitics, we are at a moment in time where tremendous upside awaits investors who recognize today the true future value of key resources and secure meaningful exposure to them.

Rick Rule has made a successful and storied career as a resource investor, and has rarely seen as attractive an alignment for the space as he does today. What is there to be so optimistic about?
Image | Off The Cuff: Planning to Plan for the Plan
Off The Cuff: Planning to Plan for the Plan
 PREVIEW

In this week’s Off the Cuff with Mish & Chris podcast, Chris and Mish debate:

  • Rescuing Europe
    • There seems little reason to have optimism that the latest announcement of a plan to save the Continent will be any more fruitful than the many previous ones. A better question is: Can Europe be saved?
  • Fuzzy numbers
    • Reports of Cyber Monday record sales and lowering unemployment are in the media. Time to break out the champagne?

The leaders of Europe are showing Herculean talent in kicking the can further down the road. The key question now is when does the road end?
Off The Cuff: Planning to Plan for the Plan
 PREVIEW

In this week’s Off the Cuff with Mish & Chris podcast, Chris and Mish debate:

  • Rescuing Europe
    • There seems little reason to have optimism that the latest announcement of a plan to save the Continent will be any more fruitful than the many previous ones. A better question is: Can Europe be saved?
  • Fuzzy numbers
    • Reports of Cyber Monday record sales and lowering unemployment are in the media. Time to break out the champagne?

The leaders of Europe are showing Herculean talent in kicking the can further down the road. The key question now is when does the road end?
Image | How to Position Yourself for the Future: Step 1 – Financial Security
How to Position Yourself for the Future: Step 1 – Financial Security

src=What we care about most here is helping people adjust and adapt — happily, profitably, and safely — to what is likely to be a very different future.

Our framework centers on the idea that humanity is facing a set of predicaments quite unlike anything else in the history books. Because this time there are no borders to cross in search of safety; the entire world is involved. On a global basis, we’ve never experienced collective debt loads of this magnitude. Never before has an entire set of intertwined currency systems — all debt-based money — collectively been backed by nothing more than the hope of a larger future, and never before have this many people had to figure out how to move from more-concentrated to less-concentrated energy sources (from fossil fuels to sun- and wind-based alternatives). 

The convergence of exponential trends in population, energy depletion, debt accumulation, and an economic model that is hooked on growth will combine to produce quite an interesting, if not challenging and disruptive, future. The funny thing about complex systems is that they are unpredictable, and therefore preparing for what may come is a non-trivial (yet absolutely essential) task.
How to Position Yourself for the Future: Step 1 – Financial Security

src=What we care about most here is helping people adjust and adapt — happily, profitably, and safely — to what is likely to be a very different future.

Our framework centers on the idea that humanity is facing a set of predicaments quite unlike anything else in the history books. Because this time there are no borders to cross in search of safety; the entire world is involved. On a global basis, we’ve never experienced collective debt loads of this magnitude. Never before has an entire set of intertwined currency systems — all debt-based money — collectively been backed by nothing more than the hope of a larger future, and never before have this many people had to figure out how to move from more-concentrated to less-concentrated energy sources (from fossil fuels to sun- and wind-based alternatives). 

The convergence of exponential trends in population, energy depletion, debt accumulation, and an economic model that is hooked on growth will combine to produce quite an interesting, if not challenging and disruptive, future. The funny thing about complex systems is that they are unpredictable, and therefore preparing for what may come is a non-trivial (yet absolutely essential) task.
Image | The Framework for Predicting Our Financial Future
The Framework for Predicting Our Financial Future
 PREVIEW

The Framework for Predicting Our Financial Future

Wednesday, December 7, 2011

Executive Summary

  • Exponential change ‘speeds up’
  • When it finally happens, change happens quickly
  • Collapse progresses from the outside in
  • Complex systems will become simpler when energy is scarce
  • We fool ourselves at our peril
  • The rules will be changed
  • If you can’t accurately assess the risks, don’t play the game
  • Investing in a structural bear market

Part I: How to Position Yourself for the Future: Step 1 – Financial Security

If you have not yet read Part I, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

Part II: The Framework for Predicting Our Financial Future

Okay, assuming you have the basics covered, I now want to share with you my views on the markets and how things will unfold in the future. My assumption is that you have completed the full Crash Course (or one of the shorter versions) and are familiar with the exponential function and how it permeates our everyday life.

This framework is always subject to revision as new experiences and data points become available, but its central themes have been operative for me for several years.

Again, this body of work represents my personal observations, historical readings, and faith in the idea that cultures and laws may change but humans tend to behave in predictable ways. As always, I reserve the right to change my forecasts as new information becomes available.

Exponential Change ‘Speeds Up’

Understanding the nature of the systems in which we live is the centerpiece of our analytical framework. And at the heart of that is the concept that we live in a world dominated by exponential functions and curves. 

The Framework for Predicting Our Financial Future
 PREVIEW

The Framework for Predicting Our Financial Future

Wednesday, December 7, 2011

Executive Summary

  • Exponential change ‘speeds up’
  • When it finally happens, change happens quickly
  • Collapse progresses from the outside in
  • Complex systems will become simpler when energy is scarce
  • We fool ourselves at our peril
  • The rules will be changed
  • If you can’t accurately assess the risks, don’t play the game
  • Investing in a structural bear market

Part I: How to Position Yourself for the Future: Step 1 – Financial Security

If you have not yet read Part I, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

Part II: The Framework for Predicting Our Financial Future

Okay, assuming you have the basics covered, I now want to share with you my views on the markets and how things will unfold in the future. My assumption is that you have completed the full Crash Course (or one of the shorter versions) and are familiar with the exponential function and how it permeates our everyday life.

This framework is always subject to revision as new experiences and data points become available, but its central themes have been operative for me for several years.

Again, this body of work represents my personal observations, historical readings, and faith in the idea that cultures and laws may change but humans tend to behave in predictable ways. As always, I reserve the right to change my forecasts as new information becomes available.

Exponential Change ‘Speeds Up’

Understanding the nature of the systems in which we live is the centerpiece of our analytical framework. And at the heart of that is the concept that we live in a world dominated by exponential functions and curves. 

Image | Unfixable (UPDATED)
Unfixable (UPDATED)

Two weeks ago, Chris flew to Spain to speak at the 2012 Gold & Silver meeting in Madrid. He gave his latest, streamlined version of the Crash Course titled “Unfixable”.

GoldMoney was a sponsor of the event and recorded the presentation, which has subsequently been put onto the Internet. The wide pickup and positive reaction have been a real pleasure to see.

If you’re one of the few who has yet to run across it, here it is. Of particular note is how deftly Chris handles the Q&A segment, which starts about mid-way through.

Unfixable (UPDATED)

Two weeks ago, Chris flew to Spain to speak at the 2012 Gold & Silver meeting in Madrid. He gave his latest, streamlined version of the Crash Course titled “Unfixable”.

GoldMoney was a sponsor of the event and recorded the presentation, which has subsequently been put onto the Internet. The wide pickup and positive reaction have been a real pleasure to see.

If you’re one of the few who has yet to run across it, here it is. Of particular note is how deftly Chris handles the Q&A segment, which starts about mid-way through.

Image | Off The Cuff: It’s GAME ON for Central Bank Liquidity
Off The Cuff: It’s GAME ON for Central Bank Liquidity
 PREVIEW

In this week’s Off the Cuff with Mish & Chris podcast, Chris and Mish chew on:

  • Central bank liquidity

    • The ECB, the Fed, the Banks of England, Japan, and others turn on spigot, and the stock market throws a party. Will this actually help the situation at all? 
  • Endgame options for dealing with all the debt

    • 2008-style red flags are increasing. What risk is the banking system facing at this point?
  • “Banker to the world”

    • The Fed’s new name 

Yesterday saw lots of central bank intervention to provide liquidity. Rather than a cause for celebration, this should be a big cause for worry — but don’t tell that to the equity markets, which rocketed higher on the news (the bond market seems unfazed at this point).
Off The Cuff: It’s GAME ON for Central Bank Liquidity
 PREVIEW

In this week’s Off the Cuff with Mish & Chris podcast, Chris and Mish chew on:

  • Central bank liquidity

    • The ECB, the Fed, the Banks of England, Japan, and others turn on spigot, and the stock market throws a party. Will this actually help the situation at all? 
  • Endgame options for dealing with all the debt

    • 2008-style red flags are increasing. What risk is the banking system facing at this point?
  • “Banker to the world”

    • The Fed’s new name 

Yesterday saw lots of central bank intervention to provide liquidity. Rather than a cause for celebration, this should be a big cause for worry — but don’t tell that to the equity markets, which rocketed higher on the news (the bond market seems unfazed at this point).
Image | Robert Rapier: The Scientific Challenges to Replacing Oil with Renewables
Robert Rapier: The Scientific Challenges to Replacing Oil with Renewables

So, assuming the Peak Oil camp is on to something, what's the likelihood for a disruption-free transition to another energy source that can replace the energy output we currently enjoy from oil? There's no shortage of promising claims from new laboratory experiments, and there is a lot of optimism in political and entrepreneurial circles that renewable, alternative forms of energy (wind, solar, biofuels, etc) may be able to fill the "energy gap" in time. How realistic are these hopes?

Not very, says Robert Rapier, energy specialist and Chief Technology Officer of Merica International.

The problem is one of return on invested energy. It is extremely difficult to create fuels with the same energy-density Nature has concocted over thousands of millennia without using up as much (or more) energy in the process.
Robert Rapier: The Scientific Challenges to Replacing Oil with Renewables

So, assuming the Peak Oil camp is on to something, what's the likelihood for a disruption-free transition to another energy source that can replace the energy output we currently enjoy from oil? There's no shortage of promising claims from new laboratory experiments, and there is a lot of optimism in political and entrepreneurial circles that renewable, alternative forms of energy (wind, solar, biofuels, etc) may be able to fill the "energy gap" in time. How realistic are these hopes?

Not very, says Robert Rapier, energy specialist and Chief Technology Officer of Merica International.

The problem is one of return on invested energy. It is extremely difficult to create fuels with the same energy-density Nature has concocted over thousands of millennia without using up as much (or more) energy in the process.
Image | Off The Cuff: Give Thanks You Don’t Live In Greece
Off The Cuff: Give Thanks You Don’t Live In Greece
 PREVIEW

In this week’s Off the Cuff with Mish & Chris podcast, Chris and Mish pontificate on:

  • The Options for Greece

    • Which path should Greece choose at this point? Whichever one it is, it’s not going to feel good.
  • Weakness in the Banks
    • 2008-style red flags are increasing. What risk is the banking system facing at this point?
  • The promise of China and the Emerging Markets

    • More signs of Asian slowdown continue to appear.  

With the US Thanksgiving holiday upon us, Chris and Mish discuss the latest concerning data on the European credit crisis, and give particular thanks that they are not the one’s faced with the choices confronting Greece. There are a limited number of options left on the table this time (austerity; high/hyperinflation; outright default); none of them have pleasant repercussions to live through.
Off The Cuff: Give Thanks You Don’t Live In Greece
 PREVIEW

In this week’s Off the Cuff with Mish & Chris podcast, Chris and Mish pontificate on:

  • The Options for Greece

    • Which path should Greece choose at this point? Whichever one it is, it’s not going to feel good.
  • Weakness in the Banks
    • 2008-style red flags are increasing. What risk is the banking system facing at this point?
  • The promise of China and the Emerging Markets

    • More signs of Asian slowdown continue to appear.  

With the US Thanksgiving holiday upon us, Chris and Mish discuss the latest concerning data on the European credit crisis, and give particular thanks that they are not the one’s faced with the choices confronting Greece. There are a limited number of options left on the table this time (austerity; high/hyperinflation; outright default); none of them have pleasant repercussions to live through.
Image | Off The Cuff: Europe’s Destiny Hangs In the Balance
Off The Cuff: Europe’s Destiny Hangs In the Balance
 PREVIEW

In this week’s Off the Cuff with Mish & Chris podcast, Chris and Mish investigate:

  • Europe’s precarious plight

    • It’s all in the hands of the ECB at this point. Will it print? And if so, will it print enough to matter?
  • Corporations and The Stock Market
    • Are malinvestments on the rise?
  • The Congressional Supercommittee
    • Will it deliver a plan of any meaning by the approaching deadline? 

Chris has just returned from Spain and is amazed at how serene the scene remains there despite the severe deterioration of the European economy over the past several weeks. Mish concurs that a major ‘wake up call’ to the status quo is coming in the near term.
Off The Cuff: Europe’s Destiny Hangs In the Balance
 PREVIEW

In this week’s Off the Cuff with Mish & Chris podcast, Chris and Mish investigate:

  • Europe’s precarious plight

    • It’s all in the hands of the ECB at this point. Will it print? And if so, will it print enough to matter?
  • Corporations and The Stock Market
    • Are malinvestments on the rise?
  • The Congressional Supercommittee
    • Will it deliver a plan of any meaning by the approaching deadline? 

Chris has just returned from Spain and is amazed at how serene the scene remains there despite the severe deterioration of the European economy over the past several weeks. Mish concurs that a major ‘wake up call’ to the status quo is coming in the near term.
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