Chris Martenson
Europe
Are You Prepared for $200 Oil?
Wednesday, January 11, 2012
Executive Summary
- Higher oil prices caused by an Iran conflict could very well be the trigger for the next major economic downturn
- Where oil prices will likely go, and how quickly, if a conflict erupts in the Persian Gulf
- The prudent steps you should take now, in advance of a potential conflict
- How the financial markets will react, and likely safe havens
- Why a war with Iran will be much messier than the Iraq war
Part I: Iran: Oh, No; Not Again
If you have not yet read Part I, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
Part II: Are You Prepared for $200 Oil?
In Part I, we connected a few dots and made the point that Iran remains the last unconquered oil province within the last great deposit fields left on the planet. Perhaps it is coincidence that Iran now finds itself in the crosshairs, but that is unlikely. Instead, the oil treasures of the Middle East remain the last great prize, and Iran is unlucky enough to be standing in the way.
Once one understands where we are in the Peak Oil story, all of these maneuvers make sense and conform to a brutal but coherent logic: If oil supplies are dwindling as fast as the data suggests, then controlling the last, best supplies will be considered essential by every interested party.
While such speculation is interesting to engage in, there’s really nothing you or I can do to alter these events. Instead, our job is to prepare as best we can.
The larger set of world events is grinding inexorably towards a lower standard of living, with the squabbling at present really being over who eats the first sets of losses. However, the next leg of the downturn will be precipitated by some event, and a war with Iran that spikes oil prices would be a perfect catalyst.
Are You Prepared for $200 Oil?
PREVIEWAre You Prepared for $200 Oil?
Wednesday, January 11, 2012
Executive Summary
- Higher oil prices caused by an Iran conflict could very well be the trigger for the next major economic downturn
- Where oil prices will likely go, and how quickly, if a conflict erupts in the Persian Gulf
- The prudent steps you should take now, in advance of a potential conflict
- How the financial markets will react, and likely safe havens
- Why a war with Iran will be much messier than the Iraq war
Part I: Iran: Oh, No; Not Again
If you have not yet read Part I, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
Part II: Are You Prepared for $200 Oil?
In Part I, we connected a few dots and made the point that Iran remains the last unconquered oil province within the last great deposit fields left on the planet. Perhaps it is coincidence that Iran now finds itself in the crosshairs, but that is unlikely. Instead, the oil treasures of the Middle East remain the last great prize, and Iran is unlucky enough to be standing in the way.
Once one understands where we are in the Peak Oil story, all of these maneuvers make sense and conform to a brutal but coherent logic: If oil supplies are dwindling as fast as the data suggests, then controlling the last, best supplies will be considered essential by every interested party.
While such speculation is interesting to engage in, there’s really nothing you or I can do to alter these events. Instead, our job is to prepare as best we can.
The larger set of world events is grinding inexorably towards a lower standard of living, with the squabbling at present really being over who eats the first sets of losses. However, the next leg of the downturn will be precipitated by some event, and a war with Iran that spikes oil prices would be a perfect catalyst.
In each of the years 2008, 2009, and 2010, significant worries emerged that Western nations might attack Iran. Here again in 2012, similar concerns are once again at the surface.
The ECB’s Latest Liquidity Move
Get Ready for Worldwide Currency Devaluation
Wednesday, December 21, 2011
Executive Summary
- The risk of cascading derivatives failures is the “nuclear option” scaring central planners into doing everything in their power to prop up the financial system
- The loss of small investors leaves market prices more vulnerable to the growing percentage of fickle, short-term, “hot money” trading systems
- Removal of China’s ‘deep pockets’ from the EU and US credit markets could easily cause them to seize up
- Why currency devaluation via inflation still seems the likely endgame
- Recommendations for increasing your financial and personal resilience to this outcome
Part I: Worse Than 2008
If you have not yet read Part I, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
Part II: Get Ready for Worldwide Currency Devaluation
Derivatives
You’d think that after AIG blew up spectacularly and Lehman choked on a hairball of tangled derivatives (one that is still being picked apart), the lesson would have been learned and derivatives reduced in both size and complexity.
Unfortunately, that lesson was not learned, and we have to square up to the fact that derivatives are now roughly $100 trillion larger in aggregate than they were in 2009:
Get Ready for Worldwide Currency Devaluation
PREVIEWGet Ready for Worldwide Currency Devaluation
Wednesday, December 21, 2011
Executive Summary
- The risk of cascading derivatives failures is the “nuclear option” scaring central planners into doing everything in their power to prop up the financial system
- The loss of small investors leaves market prices more vulnerable to the growing percentage of fickle, short-term, “hot money” trading systems
- Removal of China’s ‘deep pockets’ from the EU and US credit markets could easily cause them to seize up
- Why currency devaluation via inflation still seems the likely endgame
- Recommendations for increasing your financial and personal resilience to this outcome
Part I: Worse Than 2008
If you have not yet read Part I, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
Part II: Get Ready for Worldwide Currency Devaluation
Derivatives
You’d think that after AIG blew up spectacularly and Lehman choked on a hairball of tangled derivatives (one that is still being picked apart), the lesson would have been learned and derivatives reduced in both size and complexity.
Unfortunately, that lesson was not learned, and we have to square up to the fact that derivatives are now roughly $100 trillion larger in aggregate than they were in 2009:
There are several hard things about this particular crisis, especially for the aware. One is the waiting for the other shoe to drop, as we all know it must. The vast imbalances that led to the 2008 crisis are mainly still intact, and in many cases are larger than they were before.
Total 3291 items
Community
by hgrootveldgmail-com 
eQRP: Self-Directed Retirement
Learn more