Please, prepare for the worst.
Note: For my new subscribers, an ALERT is a collection of facts and/or events that causes me to personally take action. Historically, I issue them quite rarely. My bar is high.
If I were to rank my ALERTS on a scale, rather than as a yes/no binary condition, today’s would be either #1 or #2 on that all-time list.
Because I know these propel many of you to your own actions, I feel the responsibility of my position and sincerely hope I am providing good guidance. At the end of the day, either what I am concerned about will come to pass or it won’t. But that’s not how I score my alerts.
For example, in October of 2008, I alerted people to “get cash out of the bank now!” just a week before all hell broke loose. I took cash out and said others should as well. Years later, we learned that the deepest of Wall Street insiders and bank CEO’s were doing exactly that for themselves, but not telling anyone. The fact that the banking system didn’t completely collapse doesn’t diminish the importance of my advice or in any way invalidate the actions of the people who followed that advice.
What we’re doing here is engaging in risk management. Risks have probabilities. Sometimes you take steps and place bets and – thankfully – those insurance policies aren’t actually drawn upon. I am not a fortune teller, I am a risk manager. I play the probabilities and then communicate those to you.
In all my years of watching the financial markets on a daily and often hourly basis, I’ve never seen such terrible risks to our financial system.
This is 2008, but an order of magnitude worse.
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