Consumer Economy
- Personal Income (PI) 26.40T +94.5B (+0.36% m/m)
- Durable Goods, New Orders (DGORDER) 313.7B +1.6B (+0.50% m/m)
- Auto/Light Truck Sales (ALTSALES) 15.6M +305K (+1.96% m/m)
- Industrial Production (INDPRO) 101.4 +0.10 (+0.10% m/m)
These are all September numbers; we are far from “up-to-date”. PI is not keeping up with actual inflation, ALTSALES had a slight bounce off a 2-year low, and INDPRO is moving slowly higher – after plunging in the last year of Biden et al. It doesn’t look very BOOMING to me.
I did see a new series (tweeted by Chris, and detailed at WolfStreet) that uses ADP payroll data, updated weekly, available at FRED, which wasn’t suppressed by the Schumer Shutdown.
Total Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (ADPWNUSNERSA) 134.6M +25K (+0.02% w/w)
This series was screaming higher under Biden et al, fell immediately after Trump was inaugurated, and then slowly chopped higher. Since April, the move has turned into a mostly sideways move. Is that a BOOMING economy?
My guess: the big “Biden” jump in ADP payrolls wasn’t about Biden BOOMING; it was about a ton of cheap imported workers getting fake social security numbers, and lots of jobs, which showed up in ADP data. Who benefits? The Oligarchy – the same group that funds the Bernie/AOC private jet for those “No Kings” rallies. It was a “soft slavery program.” Perhaps this is why Trump isn’t so focused on deporting cheap, non-criminal migrant workers. If he did, I suspect ADP would tank, rather than just chopping sideways. Personal Income would probably increase as a result. “Scarce workers” = pay increases.
ADP data is the patch for the Schumer Shutdown-delayed Payrolls data. And – maybe ADP is even better?
Credit & Rates
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL) 6.54T -16.6B (-0.25% w/w)
- Total Bank Credit (TOTBKCR) 18.90T +17.4B (+0.09% w/w) [+4.68% annualized]
- 30 Year Mortgage Rate (MORTGAGE30US) 6.19% -4 bp
- 3 Month Treasury (DGS3MO) 3.70% -18 bp
- 10 Year Treasury (DGS10) 4.14% +12 bp
- 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TLT) 88.17 -2.04 -2.26%
- 10 Year JGB 1.94% +14 bp
Rumor has it the Fed will start expanding its balance sheet next week; this week may be the last balance sheet contraction we have for quite some time.
by hail 
