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Peak Insiders
Peak Insiders
by
Chris Martenson
Executive Summary
- The US/Russia proxy war in Syria is fast escalating to dangerous levels
- Much of the unrest today was imminently avoidable and sadly ignored
- The US neo-con model is making more enemies both outside and inside America
- The risks of full-blown war breaking out
- What to do to prepare in advance
If you have not yet read Part 1: Making The World A More Dangerous Place available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
Look, we’ve given these warnings before and unless you happen to live in one of the unfortunate countries that is being bombed or overtly or covertly supplied with the weapons of war by the west, they seem to not have amounted to much.
Such is the nature of reading tea leaves. Instead of thinking of them as binary outcomes – things that either happened or didn’t happen – think of them as ‘probability fields.’ Like the chance of rolling a three with a 6-sided die vs. the chance of rolling a three with a 20-sided die. The ‘probability field’ of the 6-sided die is a lot higher.
The probabilities and forces that push us closer to and further from war are ever changing and highly complex. They shift with events and decisions, most of which we are unaware of because they are either not reported on or reported with heavy distortion of the truth.
So reading the tea leaves is the best we can do.
Our advice for any war breaking out anywhere in the Middle East, or especially between Russia (or China) and the West would be to have all of your preparations done a year before that moment.
Anything that disrupts global maritime trade, even for a very short while will rock the financial systems of the world. Anything that calls into question the desire or ability of a country to repay its foreign debts (and wars are great excuses to stiff your creditors if they happen to be attacking you) will rock the financial world.
Heck, anything that…
How Things May Well Get Ugly Quickly
PREVIEW by Chris MartensonExecutive Summary
- The US/Russia proxy war in Syria is fast escalating to dangerous levels
- Much of the unrest today was imminently avoidable and sadly ignored
- The US neo-con model is making more enemies both outside and inside America
- The risks of full-blown war breaking out
- What to do to prepare in advance
If you have not yet read Part 1: Making The World A More Dangerous Place available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
Look, we’ve given these warnings before and unless you happen to live in one of the unfortunate countries that is being bombed or overtly or covertly supplied with the weapons of war by the west, they seem to not have amounted to much.
Such is the nature of reading tea leaves. Instead of thinking of them as binary outcomes – things that either happened or didn’t happen – think of them as ‘probability fields.’ Like the chance of rolling a three with a 6-sided die vs. the chance of rolling a three with a 20-sided die. The ‘probability field’ of the 6-sided die is a lot higher.
The probabilities and forces that push us closer to and further from war are ever changing and highly complex. They shift with events and decisions, most of which we are unaware of because they are either not reported on or reported with heavy distortion of the truth.
So reading the tea leaves is the best we can do.
Our advice for any war breaking out anywhere in the Middle East, or especially between Russia (or China) and the West would be to have all of your preparations done a year before that moment.
Anything that disrupts global maritime trade, even for a very short while will rock the financial systems of the world. Anything that calls into question the desire or ability of a country to repay its foreign debts (and wars are great excuses to stiff your creditors if they happen to be attacking you) will rock the financial world.
Heck, anything that…
by
Brian Pretti
Executive Summary
- New bear market + re-enter recession = 30-40% drop in stock prices
- What are the chart of the best technical indicators telling us?
- Confusion reigns during the transition from bull market to bear
- Why volatility will reign & capital protection should be prioritized
If you have not yet read Part 1: Has The Market Trend Shifted From Bull To Bear? available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
It’s The Global Economy, Stupid!
I believe another key question for equity investors right now is whether the recent noticeable slowing in global economic trajectory ultimately results in recession. Why is this important? According to the playbook of historical experience, stock market corrections that occur in non-recessionary environments tend to be shorter and less violent than corrections that take place within the context of actual economic recession. Corrections in non-recessionary environments have been on average contained to the 10-20% range. Corrective stock price periods associated with recession have been worse, many associated with 30-40% price declines known as “bear market” environments.
We can see exactly this in the following graph. We are looking at the Dow Jones Global Index. This is a composite of the top 350 companies on planet Earth. If the fortunes of these companies do not represent and reflect the rhythm of the global economy, I do not know what does. The blue bars marked in the chart are the periods covering last two US recessions. US recessions that were accompanied by downturns in major developed economies globally. As I’ve stated many a time, economies globally are….
Why The Next Drop Will Likely Be 30-40%
PREVIEW by Brian PrettiExecutive Summary
- New bear market + re-enter recession = 30-40% drop in stock prices
- What are the chart of the best technical indicators telling us?
- Confusion reigns during the transition from bull market to bear
- Why volatility will reign & capital protection should be prioritized
If you have not yet read Part 1: Has The Market Trend Shifted From Bull To Bear? available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
It’s The Global Economy, Stupid!
I believe another key question for equity investors right now is whether the recent noticeable slowing in global economic trajectory ultimately results in recession. Why is this important? According to the playbook of historical experience, stock market corrections that occur in non-recessionary environments tend to be shorter and less violent than corrections that take place within the context of actual economic recession. Corrections in non-recessionary environments have been on average contained to the 10-20% range. Corrective stock price periods associated with recession have been worse, many associated with 30-40% price declines known as “bear market” environments.
We can see exactly this in the following graph. We are looking at the Dow Jones Global Index. This is a composite of the top 350 companies on planet Earth. If the fortunes of these companies do not represent and reflect the rhythm of the global economy, I do not know what does. The blue bars marked in the chart are the periods covering last two US recessions. US recessions that were accompanied by downturns in major developed economies globally. As I’ve stated many a time, economies globally are….
by
charleshughsmith
Executive Summary
- The Fed Won't Be Able To Soak Up Bad Mortgages Like It Once Did
- Chinese Capital Will Dry Up After Capital Controls Are Imposed
- The weakening petro-dollar will weaken demand for high-end housing
- The inevitable symmetry of bubbles will force a price mean-reversion
If you have not yet read Part 1: How Much Longer Can Our Unaffordable Housing Prices Last? available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
In Part 1, we looked at factors that limit further home price appreciation—mortgage rates that can’t go much lower and stagnant household incomes—and factors that could continue to push prices higher in islands of strong job growth and global demand.
Here in Part II, we’ll look at several dynamics that could deflate the current Housing Bubble #2, even in areas currently experiencing high demand for housing such as New York City and San Francisco.
The Fed Will Encounter Political Headwinds in Pushing Money to the Wealthy
Setting aside cash buyers from overseas, a major factor in the inflation of Housing Bubble #2 was the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing programs that expanded the pool of money available to the already-wealthy while prompting very little “trickling down” of this new money to the bottom 90% of households.
The one Fed policy that aided the bottom 90% was buying $1.75 trillion of home mortgages. This unprecedented buying spree helped push mortgage rates down to equally unprecedented lows.
But as this chart shows, the Fed is…
How A Major Housing Correction Can Happen Over The Next 1.5 Years
PREVIEW by charleshughsmithExecutive Summary
- The Fed Won't Be Able To Soak Up Bad Mortgages Like It Once Did
- Chinese Capital Will Dry Up After Capital Controls Are Imposed
- The weakening petro-dollar will weaken demand for high-end housing
- The inevitable symmetry of bubbles will force a price mean-reversion
If you have not yet read Part 1: How Much Longer Can Our Unaffordable Housing Prices Last? available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
In Part 1, we looked at factors that limit further home price appreciation—mortgage rates that can’t go much lower and stagnant household incomes—and factors that could continue to push prices higher in islands of strong job growth and global demand.
Here in Part II, we’ll look at several dynamics that could deflate the current Housing Bubble #2, even in areas currently experiencing high demand for housing such as New York City and San Francisco.
The Fed Will Encounter Political Headwinds in Pushing Money to the Wealthy
Setting aside cash buyers from overseas, a major factor in the inflation of Housing Bubble #2 was the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing programs that expanded the pool of money available to the already-wealthy while prompting very little “trickling down” of this new money to the bottom 90% of households.
The one Fed policy that aided the bottom 90% was buying $1.75 trillion of home mortgages. This unprecedented buying spree helped push mortgage rates down to equally unprecedented lows.
But as this chart shows, the Fed is…
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