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Peak Insiders

by Chris Martenson

Executive Summary

  • Controlled markets can't be controlled forever
  • Confidence is beginning to fail, even at the top
  • The leading indicators to monitor closely
  • The reason to get excited about gold & silver again

If you have not yet read Part 1: Who’s Going To Eat The Losses? available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

As we recently covered in this week's special webinar, the geopolitical tensions across the world, alone, should have created some sort of ‘risk off’ response in the equity markets.  With China, Russia and North Korea all increasingly at odds with the US for a wide variety of reasons, it’s very hard to make a case that Everything is Awesome!

Instead, it’s very easy to make the case that the world is on the brink of a period of destructive trade wars, if not actual 'hot' wars. 

Again, that alone should be introducing some uncertainty, some ‘risk off’ behaviors by which we mean some sort of a selloff in equities. But that’s just not the case.

In fact, the current stock ramp-up is the second longest without even a 3% sell-off in all of US equity history.

It's my firm belief that these calm markets do not represent the collective wisdom of millions of independent traders and investors.  They are instead the result of both direct and indirect support of said markets by monetary authorities and their proxies. That is, the central banks and the big banks they actually represent and look out for. 

But this lack of volatility will have a very painful cost some day. No different than in a political crisis where an oppressed people finally rise up, the suppression of market volatility will spill over and…

How To Deal With Our Dangerous Markets And Failing Future
PREVIEW by Chris Martenson

Executive Summary

  • Controlled markets can't be controlled forever
  • Confidence is beginning to fail, even at the top
  • The leading indicators to monitor closely
  • The reason to get excited about gold & silver again

If you have not yet read Part 1: Who’s Going To Eat The Losses? available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

As we recently covered in this week's special webinar, the geopolitical tensions across the world, alone, should have created some sort of ‘risk off’ response in the equity markets.  With China, Russia and North Korea all increasingly at odds with the US for a wide variety of reasons, it’s very hard to make a case that Everything is Awesome!

Instead, it’s very easy to make the case that the world is on the brink of a period of destructive trade wars, if not actual 'hot' wars. 

Again, that alone should be introducing some uncertainty, some ‘risk off’ behaviors by which we mean some sort of a selloff in equities. But that’s just not the case.

In fact, the current stock ramp-up is the second longest without even a 3% sell-off in all of US equity history.

It's my firm belief that these calm markets do not represent the collective wisdom of millions of independent traders and investors.  They are instead the result of both direct and indirect support of said markets by monetary authorities and their proxies. That is, the central banks and the big banks they actually represent and look out for. 

But this lack of volatility will have a very painful cost some day. No different than in a political crisis where an oppressed people finally rise up, the suppression of market volatility will spill over and…

by Chris Martenson

Executive Summary

  • How bad will "bad" get?
  • What will happen to world supply and prices?
  • Who is most vulnerable?
  • How quickly could this occur?

If you have not yet read Part 1: Why The Shale "Miracle" Is Becoming A "Debacle" available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

How to Position Yourself

Okay, here’s the summary so far.  The shale companies are burning cash and they’ve done so every year. At every oil price point. And there’s nothing in the data to suggest that will change this year, or next.

So the first question to ask is: When will investors wake up and stop funding these companies?

This should be immediately followed by: How much financial and economic damage will then result? And how soon afterwards?

Well, if the companies stop drilling because their funding dries up, the decline rates of the various shale basins would translate into the immediate and sudden loss of a huge amount of oil production.  

How much?

According to the EIA the decline rates each month for the three biggest shale fields would be between 53,000 and 158,000 barrels per month.

Taken together, one month of not bringing any new wells online for these three fields would result in a drop in oil output of -314,000 barrels.  And a similar (but slightly smaller) drop the next month.  And the month after that, the same thing.  And so on.

After just 3 months the US would be down more than -1,000,000 barrels per day when all the other shale fields are taken into account. 

Now that’s extreme, and it’s very unlikely that drilling would just suddenly stop one day. But the point here is that…

The Coming Shale Debacle
PREVIEW by Chris Martenson

Executive Summary

  • How bad will "bad" get?
  • What will happen to world supply and prices?
  • Who is most vulnerable?
  • How quickly could this occur?

If you have not yet read Part 1: Why The Shale "Miracle" Is Becoming A "Debacle" available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

How to Position Yourself

Okay, here’s the summary so far.  The shale companies are burning cash and they’ve done so every year. At every oil price point. And there’s nothing in the data to suggest that will change this year, or next.

So the first question to ask is: When will investors wake up and stop funding these companies?

This should be immediately followed by: How much financial and economic damage will then result? And how soon afterwards?

Well, if the companies stop drilling because their funding dries up, the decline rates of the various shale basins would translate into the immediate and sudden loss of a huge amount of oil production.  

How much?

According to the EIA the decline rates each month for the three biggest shale fields would be between 53,000 and 158,000 barrels per month.

Taken together, one month of not bringing any new wells online for these three fields would result in a drop in oil output of -314,000 barrels.  And a similar (but slightly smaller) drop the next month.  And the month after that, the same thing.  And so on.

After just 3 months the US would be down more than -1,000,000 barrels per day when all the other shale fields are taken into account. 

Now that’s extreme, and it’s very unlikely that drilling would just suddenly stop one day. But the point here is that…

by charleshughsmith

Executive Summary

  • The Destructive Practices To Stop Doing
  • The Regenerative Behaviors To Do More Of
  • Getting The Foundational Pieces In Place
  • The Payoff, For Both You & Society

If you have not yet read Part 1: We Need a Social Revolution available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

In Part 1, we compared non-hierarchical, bottoms-up secular social revolutions with hierarchical, top-down political and technological revolutions managed by the state and corporate sector.  Next, we surveyed the erosion of social connectedness and social capital, and asked who benefited from this fraying of the social order.  While certain players derive some benefit from political divisiveness and from the sale of technologies that undermine authentic connectedness, it seems that much of the social-order decay is collateral damage—destruction that wasn’t intentional.

How can we strengthen or repair our own connections and social fabric in such a disintegrative era?

There are two basic approaches: stop participating in destructive dynamics, and assemble the foundational pieces of a connected social life.

How do we as individuals and households foster and nurture the social bonds that are fast-eroding in civil society?

The basic strategies are not difficult to understand, though they are extremely difficult to put in place in modern-day America:

  • Strip out busyness to free up enough time and energy for social life and connectedness.
  • Live in a place with short commutes to friends, family and public social spaces.
  • Recognize (and then…..
Rescuing Our Future
PREVIEW by charleshughsmith

Executive Summary

  • The Destructive Practices To Stop Doing
  • The Regenerative Behaviors To Do More Of
  • Getting The Foundational Pieces In Place
  • The Payoff, For Both You & Society

If you have not yet read Part 1: We Need a Social Revolution available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

In Part 1, we compared non-hierarchical, bottoms-up secular social revolutions with hierarchical, top-down political and technological revolutions managed by the state and corporate sector.  Next, we surveyed the erosion of social connectedness and social capital, and asked who benefited from this fraying of the social order.  While certain players derive some benefit from political divisiveness and from the sale of technologies that undermine authentic connectedness, it seems that much of the social-order decay is collateral damage—destruction that wasn’t intentional.

How can we strengthen or repair our own connections and social fabric in such a disintegrative era?

There are two basic approaches: stop participating in destructive dynamics, and assemble the foundational pieces of a connected social life.

How do we as individuals and households foster and nurture the social bonds that are fast-eroding in civil society?

The basic strategies are not difficult to understand, though they are extremely difficult to put in place in modern-day America:

  • Strip out busyness to free up enough time and energy for social life and connectedness.
  • Live in a place with short commutes to friends, family and public social spaces.
  • Recognize (and then…..
by Adam Taggart

Last year, I detailed out my personal investments in the report How My Portfolio Is Positioned Right Now. It turned out to be one of our most popular articles over the past few years.

In it, I mentioned that I'll do my best to update our subscribers when I make a material change to my portfolio allocation.

Well, I just did.

I Just Added To My Short Position
PREVIEW by Adam Taggart

Last year, I detailed out my personal investments in the report How My Portfolio Is Positioned Right Now. It turned out to be one of our most popular articles over the past few years.

In it, I mentioned that I'll do my best to update our subscribers when I make a material change to my portfolio allocation.

Well, I just did.

by Chris Martenson

Executive Summary

  • Knowing, Doing & Being
  • Preparing for and embracing de-growth
  • Getting your perspective straight
  • Ways to participate

If you have not yet read Part 1: Signs Of Distress available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

How We Fix This

At Peak Prosperity our model for squaring up to reality and taking action has three components.

Knowing – refers to gathering the best and most complete data and letting it tell the tale. Often this is hard work, mainly because much if it is ‘not happy data’ and sometimes leads to grief, such as when I view the decline in butterfly populations.

Doing – once armed with the data that says “DO SOMETHING!” we figure you should probably do something. The Eight Forms Of Capital framework in Prosper! lays out a great starting point for anyone. Stepping through each form of capital not only makes you more resilient for any future that might arrive, but happier, more well connected, and healthier today. It’s a win-win and that’s why we like it. Of course Adam and I live what we preach, so there’s nothing in there that we are not following ourselves.

Being – nothing that we do will matter in the end of we humans do not find a new way to be on this planet with each other. We need to be able to tame our egos to the point that we can finally know when to say “enough!” because we know that more stuff isn’t where our happiness and contentment come from. Further we need to remember that are a part of not apart from nature. Reconnecting to the natural world is a huge and important part of being alive and content. Mastering being allows us to experience lives of amazing abundance, in part by being grateful for what we do have rather than consumed by what we do not have.

Once we are on the path of aligning ourselves and our actions with the reality of the world we become…

Joining The Quiet Revolution
PREVIEW by Chris Martenson

Executive Summary

  • Knowing, Doing & Being
  • Preparing for and embracing de-growth
  • Getting your perspective straight
  • Ways to participate

If you have not yet read Part 1: Signs Of Distress available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

How We Fix This

At Peak Prosperity our model for squaring up to reality and taking action has three components.

Knowing – refers to gathering the best and most complete data and letting it tell the tale. Often this is hard work, mainly because much if it is ‘not happy data’ and sometimes leads to grief, such as when I view the decline in butterfly populations.

Doing – once armed with the data that says “DO SOMETHING!” we figure you should probably do something. The Eight Forms Of Capital framework in Prosper! lays out a great starting point for anyone. Stepping through each form of capital not only makes you more resilient for any future that might arrive, but happier, more well connected, and healthier today. It’s a win-win and that’s why we like it. Of course Adam and I live what we preach, so there’s nothing in there that we are not following ourselves.

Being – nothing that we do will matter in the end of we humans do not find a new way to be on this planet with each other. We need to be able to tame our egos to the point that we can finally know when to say “enough!” because we know that more stuff isn’t where our happiness and contentment come from. Further we need to remember that are a part of not apart from nature. Reconnecting to the natural world is a huge and important part of being alive and content. Mastering being allows us to experience lives of amazing abundance, in part by being grateful for what we do have rather than consumed by what we do not have.

Once we are on the path of aligning ourselves and our actions with the reality of the world we become…

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