Home Public

Public

Straight Talk with Mike Shedlock (aka “Mish”)

Today marks the launch of our new and (hopefully) regularly recurring "Straight Talk" series, featuring thinking from notable minds the PeakProsperity.com audience has indicated it wants to learn more about. Readers submit the questions they want addressed and our guests take their best crack at answering. Our hopes are high you'll enjoy the expert insights and alternative perspectives this new series brings.

Our inaugural Straight Talk contributor is Mike Shedlock, author of Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis, one of the most visited and respected economic blogs on the Web. Mish is an outspoken deflationist and outlines his rationale for being so in his answers to our questions. He is also a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management.

1. You’ve gone from mainframe computer programming analyst (in 2005) to being one of the most widely-read econobloggers in the world today. To what extent do you attribute your competitive advantage to holding a non-traditional background vs. the more ‘classically’ trained analysts and commentators?

Mish: It certainly helps not having a background in economics as taught by academia today. Nearly everyone in academia is a Keynesian or Monetarist.

Straight Talk with Mike Shedlock (aka “Mish”)

by Chris Martenson

1. You’ve gone from mainframe computer programming analyst (in 2005) to being one of the most widely-read econobloggers in the world today. To what extent do you attribute your competitive advantage to holding a non-traditional background vs. the more ‘classically’ trained analysts and commentators?

Mish: It certainly helps not having a background in economics as taught by academia today. Nearly everyone in academia is a Keynesian or Monetarist.

Chris on Yahoo! Finance: The Wisdom of Owning “Things” vs “Paper”

by Chris Martenson

Last week, Chris traveled to New York City for his second appearance on Yahoo! Finance’s Tech Ticker.

Chris joined host Aaron Task in Tech Ticker’s Nasdaq studio to discuss his latest outlook on the ‘Three Es,’ namely that the fast-approaching arrival of Peak Oil and shortages of other key natural resources is going to put the breaks on global economic growth.

Chris on Yahoo! Finance: The Wisdom of Owning “Things” vs “Paper”

by Chris Martenson

Last week, Chris traveled to New York City for his second appearance on Yahoo! Finance’s Tech Ticker.

Racing Against Time: Peak Oil = Peak Economy

by Chris Martenson

This post is a contribution to Honda’s “Racing Against Time” thought leadership series. Chris Martenson was selected to provide a unique perspective on how we should approach the discussion of oil as a finite energy source. During the first week of October 2010, five individuals provide their own thoughts on the subject. These independent contributors were not compensated for their participation and as such their views are their own and do not necessarily reflect those of Honda. Details and links to what others are saying about “Racing Against Time” can be found at www.facebook.com/Honda.

Peak Oil will result in ‘peak economy.’ Once it arrives, nothing will work quite the same way again.

Let me explain.

The concept of “Peak Oil” is simple enough: Oil is a finite resource. Someday, no matter how hard we try, we will hit a maximum rate of production. From that time on, we will see less and less oil coming up out of the ground. What Peak Oil refers to, then, is not “running out” of oil, but the fact that we are going to hit peak production sooner or later. All of the data suggests that “sooner” is a better candidate than “later.”

By itself, the concept of having to get by on just a little bit less oil each year seems to be manageable enough. Perhaps we can develop more hybrid/electric cars, wind/solar farms, and other technologies that can help us use energy more efficiently. I will applaud these technologies as they become more widely available, but basic math indicates that they cannot possibly bridge the energy gap being left by retreating oil supplies fast enough. So then what?

My particular concern, and the focus of my writing and speaking, is the role of energy in creating and supporting the economy upon which we all depend. The short version of the story is this: Our economy utterly depends on oil to function. And for the first time ever, oil production is declining. We are now racing against time.

Racing Against Time: Peak Oil = Peak Economy

by Chris Martenson

Peak Oil will result in ‘peak economy.’ Once it arrives, nothing will work quite the same way again.

Let me explain.

Interview with the Survival Podcast

by Chris Martenson

Yesterday, I was interviewed by Jack Spirko of The Survival Podcast. We had a meaty exploration of the core tenets of the Three Es in light of recent developments, then delved pretty deeply into strategies for building personal resilience, which is the main focus of Jack’s regular podcasts. I enjoyed myself and think the discussion is worth listening to.

The podcast of our interview is now posted on TSP. Click here to listen to it.

Interview with the Survival Podcast

by Chris Martenson

The podcast of our interview is now posted on TSP. Click here to listen to it.

What Should I Do? The Basics of Resilience (Part 8 – Community)

by Chris Martenson

Note: This article is part of a series on personal preparation to help you answer the question, “What should I do?” Our goal is to provide a safe, rational, relatively comfortable experience for those who are just coming to the realization that it would be prudent to take precautionary steps against an uncertain future. Those who have already taken these basic steps (and more) are invited to help us improve what is offered here by contributing comments, as this content is meant to be dynamic and improve over time.

You are going to need community.

It is my informed opinion that there is no “fix” to our current predicament; there are only outcomes to be managed. Unless some brand-new energy source is discovered – preferably about 15 years ago and prosecuted with all due haste – the necessary liquid fuels will not be there to power enough new economic development to cover all the past debts and unfunded promises. While this does not necessarily mean the “end of the world,” for many it will certainly mean “the end of the world as they know it.”

What Should I Do? The Basics of Resilience (Part 8 – Community)

by Chris Martenson

You are going to need community.

Guest Post: Investing In One Lesson

by machinehead

Many of you will recognize today’s author from his insightful comments that appear frequently across PeakProsperity.com.

It sucks to try earning income from investments these days. Until about ten years ago, most folks assumed they could make an easy 5 percent from safe, risk-free vehicles such as T-bills or CDs. With $500,000 saved, you could generate $25,000 in annual income. Them days are gone! Today, thanks to the Federal Reserve’s Japanese-style ZIRP (Zero Interest Rate Policy) regime, one-year T-bills yield only 0.25%, while one-year CDs average 1.25% — a mere $6,250 annually on a $500,000 account.

Guest Post: Investing In One Lesson

by machinehead

Many of you will recognize today’s author from his insightful comments that appear frequently across PeakProsperity.com.

Morons

by Davos

‎150,000 miles of roads?!?! 1 mile of road takes 5,500 gallons of liquid asphalt. One barrel of oil produces 19.5 gallons of gas, 9.2 gallons of distillate (diesel or home heating oil) 1.3 gallons of asphalt and road oil – or 4,231 barrels of oil. So, if I have this right 150,000 x 4,231=634,650,000 barrels of oil.

We are borrowing 50 billion to get .09 cents of every dollar borrowed added to GDP and in the process we are going to push oil prices north, dragging the cost of goods and services with it.

Morons

by Davos

We are borrowing 50 billion to get .09 cents of every dollar borrowed added to GDP and in the process we are going to push oil prices north, dragging the cost of goods and services with it.

What Should I Do? The Basics of Resilience (Part 7 – Protecting Wealth)

by Chris Martenson

Note: This article is part of a series on personal preparation to help you answer the question, "What should I do?" Our goal is to provide a safe, rational, relatively comfortable experience for those who are just coming to the realization that it would be prudent to take precautionary steps against an uncertain future. Those who have already taken these basic steps (and more) are invited to help us improve what is offered here by contributing comments, as this content is meant to be dynamic and improve over time.

Graduates of the Crash Course series emerge aware that, economically speaking, the next twenty years are going to be completely unlike the last twenty years. This invariably leads to the question, "How do I prepare financially?"

We have entered some truly treacherous investing waters, where we must question everything and accept nothing, even (and especially) the base assumption that any given currency, be that the US dollar or euro or Yen, will retain its value. Is a ‘double-dip’ recession coming? Nobody knows for certain, but all the warning signs are there. Our view is that it’s best to start thinking about preserving and protecting your wealth now, while you still have that opportunity. The bottom line here is that you should not be taking your cues from what your neighbors seem to be doing, but instead being sure that your own house is in order.

What Should I Do? The Basics of Resilience (Part 7 – Protecting Wealth)

by Chris Martenson

What Should I Do? The Basics of Resilience (Part 6 – Heat, Power, & Communications)

by Chris Martenson

Note: This article is part of a series on personal preparation to help you answer the question, "What should I do?" Our goal is to provide a safe, rational, relatively comfortable experience for those who are just coming to the realization that it would be prudent to take precautionary steps against an uncertain future. Those who have already taken these basic steps (and more) are invited to help us improve what is offered here by contributing comments, as this content is meant to be dynamic and improve over time.

Heat, Power, and Communications

Being warm, having instant access to electricity, and being able to connect with anyone anytime, anywhere, are so integrated in present-day life that we often forget just how much value these luxuries offer us. My town has experienced four weather- and usage-related power outages in the past year (for a total of eleven power-free days), which provided a useful reminder of just how dependent we are on the miracle of steady, uninterrupted energy.

Being able to see when it is dark, cook food, and heat your space should an outage occur in the winter are first-level needs to prepare for. Remaining in touch with those you depend on (and those who depend on you) is also a primary need, especially in any prolonged outage situation.

Even more significantly than with food and water, there are major cost differences between preparing in an ideal or long-term sort of way using totally self-sufficient alternate energy systems and preparing in a good-enough stop-gap way for temporary outages. There is certainly value in planning and investing to accomplish both, but do not let concerns that you will not have the perfect long-term system impede you from preparing for some of the more likely problematic wrinkles that may come your way.

What Should I Do? The Basics of Resilience (Part 6 – Heat, Power, & Communications)

by Chris Martenson

Heat, Power, and Communications

What Should I Do? The Basics of Resilience (Part 5 – Health and First Aid)

by Chris Martenson

Note: This article is part of a series on personal preparation to help you answer the question, “What should I do?” Our goal is to provide a safe, rational, relatively comfortable experience for those who are just coming to the realization that it would be prudent to take precautionary steps against an uncertain future. Those who have already taken these basic steps (and more) are invited to help us improve what is offered here by contributing comments, as this content is meant to be dynamic and improve over time.

The Future of Your Health

Like our “just in time” food system, our modern medical infrastructure is highly complex; it functions well only under controlled circumstances and with abundantly available specific resources. As with food, the ease with which we’ve accessed medical services over recent decades has invited us to reduce our health self-sufficiency. We’ve become so sheltered from the health risks our forefathers faced that we’re especially vulnerable if we’re ever forced to live without easy access to professional care.

Taking on a bit more responsibility and a few more preventive steps in one’s personal health is crucial; a must-do in the process of becoming resilient. Some of the steps recommended for beginners are universal; others depend on your personal needs. But in all cases, a good dose of foresight and practicality is in order to build some security into the future of your health. You should plan ahead for the things you know you’ll need: are there medications you take regularly? Do you wear contact lenses or glasses? What supplements, hygiene products, or nutritional supplies would you be hard-pressed to live without?