Buckle up, folks, this is a longer-than-usual podcast with Paul Kiker and me.
We discussed four big topic areas:
- Silver (and gold),
- The so-called “jobless recovery,” which is a polite way of saying the job market is worsening and unlikely to improve,
- The AI bubble, as evidenced by an amazing new graphic coupled to a profound lack of new electricity generation to support it,
- Peak Oil has arrived in the US without any fanfare whatsoever, which sets up oil for a major bull run.
Is it time for oil specifically, and commodities generally, to join gold and silver’s massive bull runs? Things sure are setting up that way.
But what about the “Mag 7” and their massive bull runs based on massive future build-out plans? Those seem to be running into a wall of electrical reality.
The story begins with this amazing AI bubble graphic:
The AI Investment cycle visualized Almost $1 Trillion has been invested into AI so far and that may just be the start pic.twitter.com/mxp2BOm1hO
— Evan (@StockMKTNewz) December 16, 2025
Wow!
$4 trillion of CapEx and barely half that in revenue by 2032? Well, okay, but here’s the problem: that level of CapEx is assuming the electricity capacity will be there.
That turns out to be a bad assumption:
Well, then that means the grid electricity won’t be there for the data centers. Okay, no problem! Then the data centers will have to generate on-site using natural gas turbines.,
Uh oh!
So, adding this all up, the AI valuations depend on an assumption of a massive build-out of power-hungry data centers, but it turns out a cursory glance at the electrical generation capacity in the US over the next 5 years cannot support those assumptions.
The key to successful long-term investing is finding stories that people haven’t discovered yet, or those that they have misinterpreted, and then investing accordingly.
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by cmartenson 
