Economy
The Treasury reported a $404 billion October deficit, the worst October on record and the worst start to a fiscal year. Receipts were $369 billion, down 8.8%. Outlays were $773 billion, up 12%. Defense spending surged. Interest of $115.5 billion was the worst October on record. Gross interest over 12 months reached $1.4 trillion, or 28.2% of tax revenue.
U.S. household debt rose $334 billion in the third quarter to a record $19.1 trillion. Credit-card balances rose $22 billion to $1.29 trillion, about 61% higher than five years ago. Auto loans reached $1.73 trillion, student loans $1.66 trillion, and home equity lines of credit at $481 billion, the largest quarterly HELOC increase since 2005. The average new vehicle now costs $51,109.
Meanwhile, the BLS issued no 12-month inflation rate for most October series after a 2025 shutdown halted price collection. A Reality Index estimate puts it at 5.07% versus an estimated official CPI of 4.02%. Gasoline was up 37.4%. New vehicles averaged $51,109, up 2.1%, while Manheim used prices rose 2.0% and CPI used cars fell 3.3%. Since January 2020, the Reality Index is up 43.9% against 30.8% for CPI. The BLS reported a 0.4% month-over-month rise in seasonally adjusted consumer prices.
Existing home sales fell 5.5% in October to a 3.75 million annual rate, the lowest since August 2010. The median price rose 0.4% to $416,700, the 40th straight annual gain. Inventory was a 5.1-month supply. First-time buyers were 29%. The 30-year mortgage averaged about 7.3%, the highest since 2000 aside from one month in 2023.
EYM Diner, a 30-unit Denny’s franchisee, filed Chapter 11 with $10 million to $50 million in liabilities. Schlotzsky’s franchisee JPrieto Hospitality also filed after shrinking from 10 locations. Wendy’s franchisee Meritage Hospitality Group, once 314 restaurants, filed in September after closing 60. Outback franchisee Out West Restaurant Group filed with 61 restaurants and about $449 million in debt as guest traffic fell and food and labor costs rose.
Some have pointed to employment as a bright spot. However, according to Lance Roberts, October’s jobs report pushed headline recession indicators back to green, but labor hoarding explains why the earnings boom still isn’t reaching full-time workers. Payrolls rose 165,000, and unemployment fell to 4.1%, while claims hit a 57-year low of 189,000 and the layoff rate sat at 1.0%. Yet hiring remains cautious at a 3.4% rate, involuntary part-time work jumped 339,000 to 4.8 million, and earnings growth of 3.1% still trails 3.7% inflation. Full-time employment is just 49.0% of the working-age population – below the 50.6% level of 2019 and 67,000 lower than in September – while Q3 productivity rose 3.6% as hours worked increased only 0.1%, showing companies are squeezing more output from existing staff rather than adding new full-time jobs.
US Politics
A nearly five-hour nationwide ground stop Friday stranded an estimated 1.5 million travelers, with 9,814 delays and 5,117 cancellations after FAA communications instability at 3:36 p.m. Sean Duffy blamed 1980s copper analogue lines and asked for up to $50 billion in digital upgrades, which he says Congress has thus far refused to fund. That said, Democrats noted Republicans had control of Congress for two years. Markwayne Mullin called aging air traffic control a national security risk, although he indicated there is no evidence that the outages were related to a cyberattack or AI activity.
Following the mid-term elections, incoming Ohio Rep. Don Leonard said senior Democrats warned him that refusing to back Hakeem Jeffries for speaker would mean lost committee assignments, blocked bills, a living hell in Washington, and a lost reelection. He flipped Mike Carey’s seat and has called for an amendment ending Citizens United plus an end to U.S. support for the Iran war and Israel. House Democratic Caucus Chair Pete Aguilar said he does not know which senior Democrats Leonard meant and is not concerned about Jeffries’ expected election as speaker.
Separately, several abnormalities have been identified related to the Texas mid-term election. GOP vote totals remained near prior midterm levels, with Abbott at 4.59 million, while Democrats added about 2 million. House Democratic votes rose from 3 million in 2022 to 5.16 million, and total ballots rose from 7.56 million to 9.78 million. Talarico and Hinojosa received 5.2 to 5.4 million, above presidential candidate Harris’s 4.8 million in Texas in 2024, which is unusual for a mid-term. Polls missed by 9 to 11 points against Republicans. Of 700,000 foreign migrants since 2022, fewer than 100,000 can vote. Trump suggested fraud.
Meanwhile, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez told CNN that Democrats may impeach Supreme Court justices for what she called legalizing a lot of Trump’s criminality. She said there are so many criminals in the administration and all options are on the table. She has previously called for impeaching all six conservative justices. Jonathan Turley writes that Democrats are turning to impeachments they can pursue without votes to override a veto.
Energy
Ukraine struck Russia’s largest oil refinery at Omsk again in an eight-hour drone wave from more than 1,800 miles, according to reports. The plant processes more than 21 million tonnes of crude a year. The site was hit in October and July. Witkoff and Kushner were meeting Putin as the news emerged. Washington has pressed Kyiv to halt oil-site attacks.
Russia shipped 271,000 barrels a day of diesel in October, double September, mostly to Brazil, Turkey, and elsewhere. No waiver cargo has reached a U.S. port, as U.S. companies and ports have shunned the shipments due to the congressional ban and associated legal risks. The Agioi Fanendes is idling off the East Coast after two tankers diverted amid 2022 import-ban warnings. The White House said the deal adds global supply.
Separately, confidential letters show Iran told intermediaries to keep shadow-fleet tankers moving oil to China and negotiated buying Chinese port facilities as a sanctioned-crude hub. It has control at three locations and Shandong docks. Vessels tied to Ali Shamkhani’s son hauled the oil. Reports state Shamkhani and Khamenei were killed in February U.S.-Israeli strikes. Trackers say exports have plunged since August under a U.S. blockade. An IRGC-affiliated account claimed a 30% rise in exports to China, contrary to tracking data showing a decline.
Geopolitics
Iran’s Assembly of Experts said a withdrawal from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons has become an unavoidable necessity and a national demand, citing threats to nuclear knowledge and no hope in international bodies. The supreme leader will decide, and diplomat Mohammad Mehdi Shahriari said leaving in wartime would mean pursuing a nuclear weapon, which Iran does not intend. Iran notes Israel is nuclear-armed and outside the NPT. The statement stopped short of an actual withdrawal, with Iran remaining a party to the treaty.
Meanwhile, U.S. pressure on Turkey, Iraq, and Pakistan to close Iran’s land borders has failed, according to reports. Neighbors warned that cutting trade could provoke civil insurrection. Pakistan relies on Iranian fuel, and Iraq draws over a third of its electricity and gas from Iran. Mohsen Rezaei said Iran will not reopen Hormuz or negotiate until the blockade, sanctions, and frozen assets are lifted.
In the Ukraine conflict, Jared Kushner is now pushing to include European partners in the next Ukraine round after he and Steve Witkoff met Zelensky in Ireland. Zelensky said Europe must have a voice, but Moscow has repeatedly rejected that. Yuri Ushakov said Europeans must decide if they want peace or war. Russia seeks recognition of four eastern territories and Crimea. Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov warned that including Europeans could set back the talks.
Sources
Texas Midterms: The 2 Million Mystery Votes That Defy Every Trend
Where did the extra 2 million votes for Democrats come from?
Iran Clerics Call NPT Exit a National Demand as Israel’s Nukes Stay Off-Books
Iran has frequently pointed out the obvious double standard in all of this- that Israel itself is armed with nukes and is not a signatory to the NPT.
US Budget Deficit Explodes: Worst October on Record as Defense Spending Surges and Interest Devours 28% of Taxes
In other words, more than 28 cents of every dollar collected in taxes now goes to pay just the interest on US debt.
Iran Quietly Buys Chinese Oil Terminals to Keep Sanctioned Crude Flowing, Leak Shows
Iran has bought control of port facilities at three locations in China, and stakes in docks in the Shandong province, the home to the independent Chinese refiners, sources at the Iranian Oil Ministry told Iran International.
Ukraine Hits Russia’s Largest Oil Refinery in 8-Hour Drone Wave as US Envoys Meet Putin
Ukraine struck Russia’s Omsk oil refinery in its latest long-range drone attack, in at least the third known such attack on the site of the war.
Incoming Dem Exposes Party Threats: Back Jeffries or Face a Living Hell
Committee assignments will be withheld. Ability to get legislation on the floor for votes will be difficult, and the ability to get support for re-election will be a difficult case to make
Existing Home Sales Crash to 16-Year Low as High Rates Freeze the Market
Home buying is difficult when mortgage rates have climbed to their highest levels since 2000, aside from a single month in 2023. As a result, home sales fell to their lowest level since August 2010.
Restaurant Carnage Continues as More Franchise Operators File Chapter 11
The restaurant industry is suffering yet another brutal shakeout.
FAA’s 1980s Copper Relics Ground 1.5 Million as Trump Seeks $50B Overhaul
Duffy said the disruption exposed the weaknesses of an air traffic control network that still relies on “old switches, old routers” and “1980s little copper lines.”
Source | Submitted by Walberga
US Isolation Push Stalls as Iraq, Turkey, Pakistan Keep Iran Borders Open
US efforts to pressure Iran’s neighboring states to close their land borders had failed, stalling Washington’s campaign to cripple the Iranian economy
$19.1 Trillion Household Debt Record: Americans Drowning as the Economy Sinks
Just like that ship, our economy was once a magnificent vessel. But now it is also sinking.
AOC Floats Impeaching SCOTUS for “Legalizing” Trump’s “Criminality”
I mean, of course this Supreme Court as well has also kind of legalized a lot of his criminality
Russia Doubles Diesel Exports Under Trump Waiver — America Gets None of It
The global marketplace did fine. The American one got nothing.
Kushner Claims Europe In on Ukraine Talks as Kremlin Repeats Nyet
Kushner Goes All In On Getting Europe A Seat At Peace Table, After Moscow’s Nyet
Labor Hoarding Keeps Recession Gauges Green as Full-Time Jobs Stall
October’s jobs report pushed the headline recession indicators back to green, but “labor hoarding” explains why the earnings boom still isn’t reaching full-time workers.
Shutdown Blanks Official October Inflation. Reality: 5.07%
The Government Couldn’t Publish an Inflation Rate for October. Ours Is 5.07%.
In addition to sources submitted by community members, the following were also used in the creation of this report: InForney, Derek Ryan, USA Today, Snopes, Clash Report, Stars and Stripes, bne IntelliNews, Reuters, National Association of REALTORS, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Iran International, and Kyiv Post.
