Energy
Brent crude briefly reached $110 a barrel Friday, the first time since May, with WTI above $101. Weekly gains were 4.9 percent and 10.4 percent amid reports of escalation concerns, rumors of attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure, and unverified accounts of Iranian military movements. Houthis attacked the Yanbu pipeline terminal, according to reports. Iran intensified attacks in the Strait of Hormuz following the U.S. blockade, reports said. Ukraine continued strikes on Russian oil infrastructure. The G7 agreed to release reserves.
Record tanker rates have left heavy crude in the Americas while Asia and Europe lack diesel-rich grades, market data showed. Canada produces over 5 million barrels daily, with 4 million heading to U.S. refineries. Regional heavy crudes dropped about $10 a barrel, with Western Canadian Select reaching $74, then $79.50. Gulf-to-Europe freight reached $24.50 per barrel versus about $4 before the conflict. Americas-to-Asia rates exceeded $40. Hormuz ship-to-ship transfers pushed Gulf-to-Asia supertanker rates to $1.4 million a day.
The Energy Department offered 17 million more Strategic Petroleum Reserve barrels a day after the IEA accelerated remaining March stocks, including over 20 million barrels of diesel. The SPR stood at 283 million barrels and would fall near 266 million if taken in full. Firms took only 500,000 barrels in June under premiums of up to 24 percent. Commercial crude inventories have fallen more than 51 million barrels in 26 weeks.
President Trump waived sanctions on the five largest buyers of Russian oil and gas, citing the national interest, as a law from the late Sen. Lindsey Graham was due to impose up to 100 percent tariffs on those countries and 500 percent on Russian imports. China and India buy more than 85 percent of Russian crude. Trump said he agreed with Putin on nearly two million tons of diesel by December and called cheaper fuel for farmers, ranchers, and truckers his greatest priority. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called the waiver wrong.
Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer declared an energy emergency October 12, citing Iran-related disruptions and what she said was the nation’s largest year-over-year gasoline-price rise in Michigan. The order allows farm and logging vehicles to use dyed diesel on roads until December 31, and Patrick De Haan of GasBuddy observed that Michigan joined about a dozen other states in partially waiving such rules.
Geopolitics
Qatar’s government revenue fell 42 percent in the first half after strikes halted LNG exports, spending down 14 percent, the emir said. The half-year deficit already exceeded the full-year plan. Ras Laffan strikes destroyed two of 14 processing units, 17 percent of capacity, plus cold boxes that take years to replace. September LNG of 1.6 million tons was under a quarter of the pre-conflict pace, October at 0.6 million. The IMF expects a 15.6 percent contraction this year.
Meanwhile, U.S. officials said Pentagon plans for further Iran strikes include the GBU-43/B “MOAB” Massive Ordnance Air Blast against energy and nuclear sites. The munition is the largest non-nuclear bomb in the U.S. arsenal.
Turning to the Ukraine conflict, U.S. envoys proposed in Miami on October 10 that Europe shift some frozen Russian assets into a Washington-overseen vehicle to restart Ukraine talks. European officials declined. Chancellor Merz said funds frozen in Europe should stay Europe’s business. About €260 billion remain frozen, over €210 billion in the EU, mostly at Euroclear. Brussels already uses interest for Ukraine, including a further $1.62 billion.
Meanwhile, Ukraine’s Starlink and Starshield access was restored after a brief outage, British Defense Secretary Wes Streeting said after Pete Hegseth’s reassurance. Trump said he did not know who ordered any slowdown and that it was not the United States. Ukrainian officials reported speed limits on terminals moving over 100 mph, which they said disrupted missions and lost drones. Elon Musk said the U.S. government owns Starshield and the military, and the president set limits. A U.S. official said the president made no such request.
Economy
The U.S. closed its 2026 fiscal year with a $1.992 trillion deficit, more than $200 billion larger than the prior year. September receipts were $558 billion against $585 billion in outlays. Gross interest hit a record $1.360 trillion, up 12 percent. Net interest exceeded $1 trillion in September for the first time. Trailing twelve-month interest reached $1.4 trillion, compared with Social Security outlays of $1.67 trillion. T-bills are 23 percent of marketable debt.
Meanwhile, Mark Zandi of Moody’s Analytics estimated the Iran conflict’s household cost at nearly $2,000, or $265 billion nationwide, about $1,100 in energy, $540 in rates, and $360 in military, with energy still adding about $50 a week. Gasoline was $4.37, up from under $3, diesel was above $6, and mortgages 7.5 percent, up from below 6 percent. The White House described him as a frequently wrong Democrat donor. Brown University estimated $1,018 per household. The Congressional Budget Office put military costs at $38.1 billion through August 1 plus $2-3 billion a month. A Congressional Research Service report listed 81 aircraft lost or damaged.
That said, BlackRock is reportedly doing well. It ended the third quarter with a record $15.49 trillion under management, a sum equivalent to about half U.S. GDP, after $205 billion of net inflows. Earnings were $10.57 a share GAAP and $15.93 a share adjusted, with revenue up 19 percent to $7.75 billion. Private markets raised $68 billion in twelve months, and iShares took in almost $135 billion. Private-credit inflows rose $5 billion as redemptions eased to 11.5 percent. Moody’s said quality risks are mounting among weaker middle-market borrowers.
Lastly, in a recent analysis, Lance Roberts draws a distinction between supply-shock inflation and demand-pull inflation. He argues that supply-shock inflation resolves itself because incomes do not fund it, unlike demand-pull inflation. September headline CPI was 3.7 percent, core 2.6 percent. Gasoline rose 34.2 percent over the year and accounted for more than half the monthly gain. Real earnings fell 0.7 percent. Labor’s share of output hit 52.8 percent in the second quarter, lowest since 1947. Ten-year breakevens sat near 2.3 percent.
Preparedness
Madge Waggy opines that a food crisis is coming because just-in-time logistics, concentrated meatpacking, aging farmers, aquifer decline, and soil erosion are steadily eroding the system’s ability to absorb shocks. Stores hold only a few days of stock, four companies handle 80 to 85 percent of fed cattle, the average producer is 58.1 years old, farms have fallen from 6.8 million to 1.9 million, the Ogallala has dropped for decades, and California aims for groundwater sustainability by 2040, while cropland loses 1.5 to 2 billion tons of soil a year and trucking moves about 70 percent of freight. The country is not running out of food so much as running out of the cushion that once let a bad season pass unnoticed. Shelves can stay full with fewer brands at higher prices, and food-at-home costs rose about 25 percent from 2019 to 2023 while insecurity hit 13.5 percent of households. Because efficiency’s costs are deferred and people adapt by substituting and accepting the new normal, the thinning margin stays invisible until a compound shock arrives and the buffers are already gone.
Sources
Record Tanker Rates Strand Heavy Crude in the Americas
This oil logistics problem is now causing a ripple effect, tipping the heavy crude market in North and South America into oversupply—while Asia and Europe grapple with a shortage of heavy grades.
America’s Food Supply: Reliable, Not Resilient
Reliability, though, is not the same as resilience, and the two are easy to confuse because the difference only appears when something goes wrong.
Whitmer Declares Energy Emergency, Eases Diesel Rules for Farmers Amid Iran War Price Spike
Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer declared a state of energy emergency on Oct. 12, citing disruptions to global oil markets from the war in Iran
BlackRock’s Record $15.49T AUM Now Equals Half the US Economy
BlackRock ended the third quarter with $15.49 trillion in assets under management, a record, after $205 billion of net client inflows.
Iran War’s $2,000 Household Tab: Moody’s Economist Tallies Energy, Rates and Bombs
Consider that the war’s costs taken together have absorbed about half the average American household’s income gain over the past eight months. No wonder the war is so unpopular.
Pentagon Weighs MOAB for Iran as Unpopular War Lacks Any Endgame
It all along has seemed like a bombing campaign in search of a strategy.
Trump Floats Unfreezing Russian Assets to Restart Talks as Europe Digs In
The United States has floated a proposal that European countries unfreeze some of Russia’s sovereign assets and deposit them in an entity controlled by Washington.
Qatar Revenue Plunges 42% as Iran War Halts LNG Exports
Qatar’s government revenue fell 42% in the first half of 2026
US Offers 17M More SPR Barrels Nobody Took Last Time
There is one rather large catch: somebody has to want the oil.
Starshield Restored After Brief Ukraine Outage; Trump Denies Ordering It
Any limits on speed or usage are decided by the U.S. military and ultimately POTUS
US Closes FY2026 With $2T Deficit as Interest Hits Record $1.4T
the US is no longer even pretending that there is any hope to normalize spending, or any kind of happy ending to the US debt trajectory.
Bad Inflation Cures Itself. Good Inflation Doesn’t
Bad inflation doesn’t create the income that pays for it, so it destroys the demand that supports it.
Oil Hits $110 as Mideast Escalation Fears Return
Oil hit $110 a barrel for the first time since May as fears grow of renewed conflict in the Middle East.
Trump Waives Sanctions on Top Russian Oil Buyers, Cites National Interest and Diesel Deal
I have submitted to the Congress a certification that the issuance of such a waiver at this time is in the national interests of the United States
In addition to sources submitted by community members, the following were also used in the creation of this report: Goldman Sachs, Oneindia News, Reuters, Patrick De Haan of GasBuddy, The Kyiv Independent, USDA, ZeroHedge, CNBC, and Newsmax.
by westcoastjan 
