Happy Friday, everyone. We’re trucking along at the farm…had a great work crew here yesterday in the form of Kevin, who’s visiting for a while, and Evie’s daughter Jayde, her boyfriend Tai, and their friend Brook…logs were split and stacked, holes were dug, fruit and peppers preserved, and mechanical issues were diagnosed and dealt with…it feels really good to have help. Maybe I should organize another work party? One of these Saturdays coming up…any nearby takers?
The Neverending Lies
There’s the fog of war, and then there’s whatever the heck this is:
As we say, pics or it didn’t happen! Nobody believes Trump anymore, not even the oil algos.
Certainly not any of the oil tracking analysts or companies whose main job is keeping track of such things:
According to the ‘lit’ tankers (those using their transponders), the traffic is all but completely dead:
Last year, 68 tankers crossed the Strait of Hormuz on September 1.This year, 5 tankers crossed on September 1.THANKS TO PRES. TRUMP, THE STRAIT IS, FOR ALL PRACTICAL PURPOSES, CLOSED. pic.twitter.com/5OePehTXaW
— Steve Hanke (@steve_hanke) September 2, 2026
Meanwhile, Trump is so confident of the Strait being open, that he has reportedly threatened Oman with bombs if they strike a deal with Iran:
Oman BACKS AWAY from Iran’s Strait of Hormuz TOLL PLAN — NYPSources claim Muscat now quietly refused Iran’s request to jointly charge fees on ships transitingThe decision averts confrontation with Trump, who has threatened to 'bomb' Oman over interference with the US blockade pic.twitter.com/VaDvls9tEH
— RT Intl (@RT_on_X) September 4, 2026
It’s tricky to figure out how much oil is actually making it from the Gulf…but it’s safe to say that at least 3-4 million barrels per day remain missing placing this energy crisis, even at those levels, at the very top of all energy crises.
Importantly, China seems to have returned to the oil-buying club:
What I thought was a mishap (wrong market timing from China) might hide other intent. There is systematic bidding from china everywhere, today's Dubai MoC (or what's left of it) was just two chinese outbidding eachother. The homemade oil futures broke loose yesterday. pic.twitter.com/YWfKiniLCa
— Oil Bandit 🛢️ (@OilCfd) September 2, 2026
Is the US at Peak Oil?
I can answer that question like this: the answer is ‘yes’ at these oil prices. At
by mike-from-jersey 
