The Fat Pipe 08/28/26: Is the Straight Opened or Closed?, Will Russia Respond?, Crude Not Tracking Products, Measles, The Big Club, and Grab Bag

It’s another huge week of news…things are getting spicier.  I personally think they will get a lot more ‘interesting’ going forward.

Schrodinger’s Strait

Is it open, is it closed, or is it really neither?

The US says that the SoH is 100% open.  “The US military has achieved a major milestone in the Strait of Hormuz. We have successfully cleared sea mines from the shipping lanes that were laid months ago by the IGRC.”

Update from CENTCOM Commander: pic.twitter.com/osPbltjJ1C

— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) August 28, 2026

While that may be a milestone, the sea mines weren’t the problem:

*Sigh* – one more time…it's not the mines, it's the truck-mounted supersonic missiles. pic.twitter.com/jKFy3Q1KmO

— Chris Martenson (@chrismartenson) August 26, 2026

Next, US CENTCOM claimed that they have escorted 750 million barrels safely through the SoH.  The problem with this claim is that 3.7 billion barrels would have shipped during that time frame and also the math doesn’t math:

US CENTCOM is saying that they escorted 750 million barrels of crude oil out over the past several months.Maths again: Operation Project Freedom began 116 days ago on 2026-05-04, which is nearly 6.5 million barrels per day. That number most likely includes the brief MoU period,… https://t.co/0gDLrtgoK0 pic.twitter.com/TWvLYMzkvP

— TankerTrackers.com, Inc. (@TankerTrackers) August 28, 2026

This professional firm simply tracks tankers and counts what they can via AIS ship transponders and the rest by satellite imaging.  Net result?  6.7 million barrels per day (mb/d) over the past 7 days.  That’s a far cry from the pre-war 21 mb/d:

Here's an infographic we shared with clients a couple of days ago for folks to understand. The maths are quite simple.Our method is to count the daily average of what departs the US Navy blockade line. We then substract from that what we know comes out of Oman and Fujairah. The… pic.twitter.com/oueNyfUGbM

— TankerTrackers.com, Inc. (@TankerTrackers) August 27, 2026

Still, there are increasing flows from the SoH, which is a good sign.  However, the gods of war giveth and they taketh away:

Hormuz flows may be improving, but the Red Sea is going the other way.Yanbu crude loadings have reportedly fallen from more than 4 mmb/d to about 1 mmb/d, Houthi attacks and Bab el-Mandeb risk are forcing Saudi barrels into darker, longer and more complicated routes through… pic.twitter.com/yUu4Shn9Cg

— Art Berman (@aeberman12) August 28, 2026

Also, despite the profound success of the US military, for some inexplicable reason, ships keep getting struck by Iranian missiles:

UKMTO confirms that the Oil Tanker hit last night August 26th 21h50 UTC is the Kuwaiti-owned "AL SALAM II"They haven't released the name of the tanker hit on August 25th night.On August 24th the Greek-owned "METRO VENETIAN" was struck. https://t.co/tLigiLJi8a pic.twitter.com/kM9wakSV5F

— MenchOsint (@MenchOsint) August 27, 2026

Crude Oil & Products Part Ways

The great mystery continues…every night, like clockwork, in the thinly traded hours, crude oil does only one thing…it falls in price.  Last night was no exception:

But