Consumer Economy
- Consumer Confidence (UMCSENT) 49.5 (+4.70 m/m)
- Nonfarm Payrolls (PAYEMS) 159.0M +57.0K (+0.04% m/m)
Consumer confidence rose slightly – but remains quite low. Back during Trump 1.0, we saw UMCSENT in the 90s – until Fauci’s plandemic appeared. Now, it’s around 50. That’s just above the all-time low.
Payrolls came in well below expectations (57k, vs expected 70k-140k), and there were some (negative) revisions too.
- Apr: +179k revised down to +148k
- May: +172k revised down to +129k
BREAKING: Since the start of 2025, US jobs numbers have now been revised down in 14 out of 17 months by a total of -710,000 jobs. [July 3]
(source – KobeissiLetter)
Based on recent history, Kobeissi suggests the lame +57k number will (on average) be revised lower to +15k.
Biggest sector-moves included:
- Edu/Health Services +47k
- Prof/Bus Services +36k
- Construction +26k
- Manufacturing -18k
- Financial -22k
- Hospitality -61k
Health Services is BOOMING, but manufacturing, not so much. Curiously, “health services” has been a BOOMING sector since 2022, right after Senile Joe et al mandated that Holy Shot. Trump got 4 shots too. Wouldn’t it feel great to have a President who didn’t take the shot and doesn’t like it at all?
My two recession indicators were mostly not-recessionary:
- Working part-time (only PTW is available): +201k +16.64%
- Working part-time (because of slack work): -101k -3.25%
The “slack work” indicator led the recession back in 2008, maybe by a few months faster than the “only PTW” series. Right now, slack work looks non-recessionary. Here’s the context:
Native vs foreign born workers saw a big drop in foreign workers, while there was a large increase in native workers. Are deportations a thing again? Or is it something seasonal? The big drop in foreign-born workers might explain the lack of “slack work” at this time.
- Native Born (LNU02073413) 132.0M +571k +0.43%
- Foreign Born (LNU02073395) 30.73M -747k -2.37%
This does make this pathetic payrolls look a bit better, if you’re a native-born looking for work. Based on the chart below, Trump 1.0 didn’t stop migration (red line) until 2019, migration screamed higher under Senile Joe, but the foreign-born trend has topped out under Trump 2.0 – as it did in 2019. It broke down to a 2-year low this month.
With A Disability
- CNP (LNU00074597)
by davefairtex 
