I was in Washington DC on Wednesday of this week…and I had a few moments, so I picked up my laptop, and headed over to the “Mall of America” display…I wanted to see the tacky arch for some reason.  Well, when I got there, to the main entrance to the Land of the Free™ and the Home of the Brave, I was told that my laptop was one of 26 specifically prohibited items to bring into the area.

Two gentlemen scanning the extensive list of free and very brave banned items.

I found it entirely emblematic of where we are at the moment.  The entrance was a hodge-podge of poorly made poster boards.  The list of excluded items spoke of a nation terrified of its own shadows, not one confident of itself and its people.

No, I am not feeling it this 4th.

Schrodinger’s Strait

Is the Strait of Hormuz (SoH) open or closed?  It all depends on who is doing the observing, it seems.

Over the past 24 hours, inbound traffic has been running about 1/3^rd normal:

Strait of Hormuz over the last 24 hours.Just a quick cheat guide: any tanker ending with "prosperity" or "b" will be used for ship-to-ship transfers via the Oman lane under US escorts.VLCC inbound tanker flow, excluding Iran, is around 4 a day right now, or 8 million b/d.… pic.twitter.com/fmqZHJxn7w

— HFI Research (@HFI_Research) July 3, 2026

Iran says that it is in control of the Soh:

MORE: Iran’s top operational military headquarters, the Khatam ol Anbia Central Headquarters, warned on July 2 that Iran will deliver a “decisive and swift” response to any US interference in Iranian efforts to manage the strait. The statement added that all oil tankers and… https://t.co/VFGnC0qY35 pic.twitter.com/tPyiKzPHBf

— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) July 3, 2026

But the US is escorting tanker conga-lines through:

Becoming more and more convinced Iran simply cannot close the strait anymore. What else are we to conclude from stupid lies like this while the US military escorts bigger and bigger convoys like this through the Omani corridor everyday? https://t.co/LTTeM0OJ4j pic.twitter.com/7vkGOr8tX8

— Φίλιππος (@phileeppos) July 1, 2026

So, is it closed or not?  The answer is yes…

The Mysterious Low Price of Oil

This is the greatest surprise and mystery to me; how in the world did ‘they’ manage to create a wall of oil bearishness at a time of maximum disruption and extremely elevated risk?

So despite a war in the world’s most prolific oil producing region that’s drawn down 1.3 to 1.7 billion barrels of oil, Brent is trading almost $1 a barrel cheaper than before the conflict while WTI is just a few cents higher. There is no logical explanation that justifies this

— Dan McTeague (@GasPriceWizard) July 1, 2026

Trump says he’s pondering renewed strikes against Iran.

WASHINGTON—President Trump has weighed a return to all-out war with Iran, holding multiple