Happy Monday, everyone. I hope you had a wonderful weekend, and a happy Father’s Day for all you US dads.
Schrodinger’s Strait
Is the Strait of Hormuz closed or is it open? It’s both, at the same time, apparently. What an exhausting weekend of contradictory statements and misinformation.
The U.S. is clearly quite worried about the Strait being open and is constantly beaming misinformation to that effect. Perhaps the most disappointing cabinet member is Chris Wright:
If by "normal" he means absolutely not normal, then the energy Secretary is making a solid point. https://t.co/BZpvlUfhth
— Chris Martenson (@chrismartenson) June 21, 2026
Still, ship traffic has rebounded to 20% to 30% of pre-war levels this past weekend, which is a good sign.
Strait of Hormuz crossings rebound, but recovery remains fragileVessel activity through the Strait of Hormuz increased sharply between 19 and 21 June, with 71 confirmed transits recorded and a weekend peak of 35 crossings on 20 June, according to #MarineTraffic data. The… pic.twitter.com/Vce9ZRMpMK
— MarineTraffic (@MarineTraffic) June 22, 2026
However, sharp eyes have noted that nearly ALL of the tanker traffic allowed was Iranian-linked:
Currently 3 tankers that are about to cross the Strait of Hormuz. All 3 are sanctioned!VIRGO (IMO: 9236250)ELVA (IMO: 9196644)VIGOR (IMO: 9262156)The Strait of Hormuz is open, just to Iran-linked vessels. Source: @MarineTraffic pic.twitter.com/2p8AR6yOrd
— HFI Research (@HFI_Research) June 22, 2026
And, oh wait, the SoH closed again Sunday evening:
According to vessel tracking data from https://t.co/bYX0jXrfTw, the Strait of Hormuz appears to have effectively closed just before 1700 UTC yesterday, with no transits observed after that time. At approximately 1650 UTC, the tanker 'Starbound Explorer' was turned around in… pic.twitter.com/nxv8Er0fHF
— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) June 21, 2026
Here’s the needed context for just how “open” the SoH is:
*6/20 Hormuz Tanker Crossings — Post-MOU Momentum Plunging*🚢🛢️Today's chart isolates Strait of Hormuz crossings by tanker class: Crude, Chemical, LNG, LPG. The initial post-deal surge is losing steam. After peaking at 15 tankers on June 18th, crossings dropped to 5 yesterday… https://t.co/gejou3Vb4N pic.twitter.com/5DjEahbtl4
— Michael McDonough (@M_McDonough) June 20, 2026
So is the Strait open or closed? It all depends on who’s doing the telling it seems.
Rocky Negotiations
This is an excellent encapsulation of the dynamic playing out in the negotiations. Iran is in control:
Let's be honest,the Iranian delegation's performance in Switzerland was a masterclass in psychological and diplomatic leverage.They arrived on their own terms, made the Americans wait, refused even the symbolic gesture of a handshake, held firm to their demands, and walked away… pic.twitter.com/OknkmW5kC3
— Richard (@ricwe123) June 21, 2026
Paragraph 1 of the MOU mentions Lebanon three times and calls for a cessation of all hostilities. Now Iran is also calling for a complete withdrawal of all Israeli forces from Lebanon:
Iran to Stop Any Negotiation If Israel Avoids Withdrawal from LebanonIran will stop any negotiation if the Israeli regime does not withdraw from Lebanon, according to information obtained by the Tasnim news agency. https://t.co/FWBZM3nclT pic.twitter.com/Wx9vRIifAK
— Tasnim News Agency (@Tasnimnews_EN) June 21, 2026
Trump seems unable to even slightly restrain Netanyahu or Ben Gvir:
🇮🇱🇱🇧 Israeli Minister Ben-Gvir:"Lebanon, all of Lebanon, should become our playground.All of Lebanon should be our target. And they tell me, "Wait a second, there is Lebanon and there is Hezbollah." I do not accept this artificial approach."This guy is a real psycho.… https://t.co/zVZ2eF3MPL
— Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) June 21, 2026
Apparently, threatening to kill the people you are negotiating with isn’t a winning strategy for moving the talks along. Who knew?
President Trump spoke with the Iranians overnight warning them not to close the Strait. "You close it and you won't have a country," Trump said he told Iranian officials. "You won't even make it back to your fu*king country."
— Trey Yingst (@TreyYingst) June 21, 2026
I can’t even imagine how difficult it must be for
by thc0655 
