Happy Memorial Day, US folks!
The Fog of Diplomacy and Insane Oil Prices
I got plum worn out this weekend trying to keep up with the so-called MOU or peace deal gymnastics. Trump kept saying one thing, the Iranians quite different things, and absolutely nobody was releasing any actual agreement language to evaluate.
The NYTimes reported that Iran agreed to give up its nuclear material (May 23rd):
Trump then tweeted out that Iran had agreed to open up the Strait of Hormuz.
When oil futures opened Sunday night at 7 pm ET, they immediately tanked:
JUST IN: 🇺🇸🇮🇷 Brent crude oil falls 5% as US and Iran negotiate deal to reopen Strait of Hormuz and end war. pic.twitter.com/XGzFpw9eCr
— Watcher.Guru (@WatcherGuru) May 24, 2026
Iran immediately said, “No way!” to all of these ideas:
🚨 TRUMP SURRENDER?!Trump just claimed the Strait of Hormuz “will be opened” under a new deal with Iran. But Iran’s state-run Fars News says Tehran would still control passage routes, permits, timing, and access through the strait.And now even figures close to Trump are… pic.twitter.com/qoqEnhELms
— MeidasTouch (@MeidasTouch) May 23, 2026
Going further, Iran’s news agency informed everyone that Trump’s tweets were not legit and mainly for internal US propaganda purposes.
This next tweet is the equivalent of saying, “I am 95% of the way to finalizing my bid on the house; we just haven’t agreed to a price, or if/how their entrenched mother-in-law can be displaced before closing.”
Insider reporting from an unnamed White House official says the Iran deal is “95% done.”The remaining 5% of negotiations are focused on Iran opening the Strait of Hormuz and turning over all nuclear material. https://t.co/GNlih9fUDj
— Frank Luntz (@FrankLuntz) May 24, 2026
As of now, there is no agreement. None. We’re exactly where we were last week, and the week before that. Unless Trump surrenders:
Here’s the most detailed response so far by IranHormuz and all nuclear material remain under Iranian control If so, Trump has chosen complete surrenderAnd to allow Iran to emerge as the 4th center of world power — for now pic.twitter.com/SE64yevPrP
— Robert A. Pape (@ProfessorPape) May 24, 2026
Here’s the current state of things:
🇺🇸70 days ago: We are 24 hrs away from deal 🇺🇸50 days ago: We are 24 hrs away from deal 🇺🇸30 days ago: We are 24 hrs away from deal 🇺🇸10 days ago: We are 24 hrs away from deal 🇺🇸 01 days ago: We are 24 hrs away from deal …Continue 😂pic.twitter.com/uEtUsXr1oD
— The Iran Spectator (@IR_Media24) May 25, 2026
But, no matter to the ““markets.”” Somebody stands ready to sell oil at the drop of every tweet, regardless if it turns out (again) to be complete US/Trumpian nonsense:
Five "deal" announcements, zero closed (yet). That's a trend. Sell the tweet, buy the molecule. Iran's leverage increases with every day that passes and inventories decline, while it decreases for the West. Thank you to @SquawkCNBC Asia for having me on this morning. Attached…
— Jeffrey Currie 🆔++ (@CommodMkt) May 25, 2026
Oil pricing remains a complete and utter clown show:
May 25th, 2026
All that is being accomplished by keeping oil prices so
by mike-from-jersey 
