Welcome to another Fat Pipe. As a reminder, we are living through the last line:
Fake Deals
Every day, usually right before the precious US markets open, a peace deal of some sort is announced. Or progress on the talks. Yesterday it was a “letter of intent:”
⚡BREAKING: 🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump reportedly told Netanyahu that mediators are drafting a “letter of intent” for both the U.S. and Iran to sign.The proposed agreement would formally end the war and begin a 30-day negotiation period focused on:– Iran’s nuclear program– Reopening the… pic.twitter.com/BihXUmz0pr
— Litest (@Litest) May 21, 2026
The contents were frankly not even remotely believable as they were merely the entire set of US demands written down:
Do you believe that Iran has agreed to the entire wish-list of US demands and none of their own?Yeah, me neither. https://t.co/TveCa3flea
— Chris Martenson (@chrismartenson) May 21, 2026
A WSJ reporter blurts out the obvious:
Source tells me the draft “deals” circulating are inaccurate.
— laurence norman (@laurnorman) May 22, 2026
The constant manipulation of the price of oil is, of course, not leading to the necessary prices that would curtail demand to bring it in line with actual supplies.
Instead of higher oil prices leading to demand destruction and slowing the record inventory depletion, the daily fake news ping pong lowers price, leading to demand acceleration.
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) May 22, 2026
In fact, US oil demand has not fallen one bit:
As all of this unfolds, the US slips quietly through oil deficits toward oil shortages:
US oil inventories are collapsing:Total US crude inventories, including the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), fell by -17.8 million barrels last week, the largest weekly drawdown in history.Commercial crude inventories fell -7.9 million barrels, the biggest decline since… pic.twitter.com/TCrF57hLtZ
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) May 21, 2026
The warnings from the most experienced insiders about the ever-growing oil calamity have zero positive impact on the price of oil, for some increasingly bizarre reason:
Some math:- Pre-war flows 25 Mb/d of oil + products- 80% of that is 20 Mb/dStill missing: 5 Mb/dCriminey, that's some bad math. https://t.co/I9ZM0baHE2
— Chris Martenson (@chrismartenson) May 21, 2026
Fatih Birol of the IEA sends a(nother) stern warning:
Oil market risks ‘red zone’ by summer, IEA chief warns https://t.co/ipEhEfifwb
— The Straits Times (@straits_times) May 21, 2026
Trump says, “We have total control of the Strait.”
Trump:We have total control of the Strait of Hormuz. pic.twitter.com/E7nikCPa8s
— Clash Report (@clashreport) May 21, 2026
The data says the US does not control the Strait:
Strait of Hormuz | Vessel CrossingsConfirmed Strait of Hormuz transits rose to 10 on 20 May from four the previous day, while the IRGC Navy stated that 26 vessels were underway following coordination and approval procedures with Iranian authorities. Most movements involved… pic.twitter.com/xivkr61r14
— Kpler (@Kpler) May 22, 2026
Of ““Markets”” and Oil And Peace
This will be the eighth week in a row that stocks have mysteriously powered higher. This helps Trump out enormously, and so we wonder…could the financial insiders be helping Trump out? Maybe with some help[ from the Fed using offshore accounts? Maybe the US government is using its magic money machines?
Trump sure loves it…this is from his TruthSocial this morning:
This morning at 8:12 a.m. ET stock futures ripped higher (and oil lower).
Futures are ripping and we still don’t have a deal. The resilience of stocks are amazing: pic.twitter.com/d3tpAfwbfc
— QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) May 22, 2026
All on the ‘news’ that Pakistan’s Army chief went to Tehran:
🇺🇸🇮🇷 Markets suddenly exploded the moment reports emerged that Pakistan’s army chief was heading to Iran.At the exact same time:-Oil collapsed-The dollar dropped-The S&P 500 ripped higherTraders immediately interpreted the move as a possible sign that backchannel… https://t.co/pNqfXwbKWr pic.twitter.com/unRACoAKJP
— Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) May 22, 2026
Really? An army chief can cause trillions of dollars of
by rmlaporte 
