There’s a Scouting Report coming out later today, and I wasn’t going to put out a Fat Pipe so as not to swamp you with content, but events last night have forced my hand.
So here’s a mini Fat Pipe just about those events.
The Most Kinetic Ceasefire Ever
The point of a ceasefire is that, you know, no firing of weapons happens because that has ceased.
Last night, yet another wild round of kinetic exchanges happened. It’s all a bit foggy, but the latest incident seems to have started on May 6th with a US F-18 operating from the USS Abraham Lincoln using its 20mm canons to disable the rudder of the Iranian tanker HASNA.
🇺🇸/IRAN: US fires on, disables Iranian commercial ship▪️US attacked it with aircraft operating from a relatively nearby aircraft carrier – in theory the US could sink all these ships with aircraft and missiles and is holding off to avoid large-scale Iranian retaliation;▪️It… pic.twitter.com/tYFGUoTUT3
— Brian Berletic (@BrianJBerletic) May 7, 2026
Then the CIA released an assessment (‘leaked’ to the WaPo) that Iran retains 75% of pre-war mobile launchers, 70% of missile stockpiles, can survive blockade 90-120 days. It said Iran’s leadership is “more radical and increasingly confident they can outlast US political will.”
The US – and the entire world – has not got three to four months to wait this out… four months gets us to Capital D economic Depression territory.
So maybe Iran’s capabilities haven’t been completely eliminated as Trump keeps boasting. My guess is the ‘leak’ happened because the CIA was frustrated at being unable to get the president to focus on the material during the normal conduct of briefings.
In response, Iran fired 7-8 missiles from southern Hormozgan shore batteries at USS Truxtun, USS Rafael Peralta, and USS
by cmartenson 
