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Tick Tock, Time Is Running Out: The Path to $200 Oil Laid Out

We’re almost out of time. The US has to get the Strait of Hormuz open, one way or the other, before its own inventories of oil and refined petroleum products are depleted. By the end of May is the word on the street.

The User's Profile Chris Martenson May 4, 2026
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For all of my Peak Prosperity followers and subscribers, I am going to start producing more frequent public video content.

As with COVID, my intent is for you to learn something but also to think, “I’ve got to send this to Aunt Sally and Uncle Bob.”

These videos will all be under 10 minutes, and will draw heavily from just one section of a given Fat Pipe or Wake-Up Call.

The summary of this video is that we are currently on a clear trajectory to $200+ oil, and possibly a lot higher. In some parts of the US, they are already experiencing the highest gasoline and diesel prices on record.

And, no, the US cannot be the swing supplier for the world, as many ignorant US officials keep claiming or suggesting.  The US is and will remain a net oil importer until and unless internal demand is killed off by higher prices.

However, the US is currently exporting oil on a net basis, meaning it is drawing down its own inventories to keep other countries supplied.  This cannot continue for much longer, and that’s the ticking clock in this story.

The US will either have to walk away from the Middle East or escalate dramatically in an attempt to save face and force open the Strait of Hormuz.  If the latter, I will be issuing my third and most urgent ALERT to subscribers during this conflict.

Iran has promised to strike the remaining oil export capabilities of the Persian Gulf states if it is attacked.  A move which would put us on the path to $300 or even $500 oil, and several localized shortages of an enormous array of products.


Timestamps

00:00 The Impending Energy Crisis
03:06 Oil Prices and Economic Impact
06:01 U.S. Oil Production and Export Dynamics
08:52 Future Projections and Strategic Insights

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