Happy Monday, everyone. I am a bit sore from all the planting and gardening I did this weekend. But potatoes don’t plant themselves, I’ve learned.
A Relatively Quiet Weekend
That’s good news of a sort, because Israel broke the ceasefire (of course) and immediately started bombing Lebanon despite promising not to.
🇮🇱🇱🇧 Israel has been hitting southern Lebanon without pause for the past few hours.This is what a ceasefire looks like to Netanyahupic.twitter.com/RhSAucpSLt https://t.co/hMdYRodtAR
— Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) April 26, 2026
Israel is just blatantly committing crimes at this point, and a lot of countries besides the US have begun to take notice and speak out:
IDF levels entire towns in Lebanon saying it was Hezbollah infrastructure pic.twitter.com/emoVXActnT
— RT (@RT_com) April 27, 2026
The IRGC issued a warning, but as far as I know, no missiles flew last night:
🚨 ⛔ URGENT :🔥🔥🔥 WARNING 🔥🔥🔥The drums of war have returned to beat.. we will not leave Lebanon.The world must watch what we will do on this blessed night.All settlers must evacuate Tel Aviv immediately. ⚡ pic.twitter.com/AzYwAm899X
— IRAN NEWS ☫ (@IR_HDX) April 26, 2026
The negotiations, as expected, are going to take a lot longer than Trump thought. Iran has now removed any nuclear discussions or concessions off the table. They will potentially negotiate on those later as a later phase of the process:
Iran Shifts Stance, Rejects Nuclear Limits in Any New Deal Iran reportedly refuses any agreement restricting its nuclear program, focusing instead on war-end terms, sanctions relief, and maritime issues, sidelining nuclear talks from Islamabad negotiations, complicating Trump’s… pic.twitter.com/MjE4qSHOvc
— Washington Eye (@washington_EY) April 26, 2026
So, for now, the Strait remains closed.
Trump’s administration has done everything possible to prevent people from figuring out just how disastrously wrong this entire war has gone for the US. NBC News finally added up the damage, and it’s staggering:
(Source – NBC News)
The pressure on Trump to end this war is mounting daily. And he hates losing. But the US is going to have to honestly negotiate and not just dictate demands, as it seems to have been doing so far.
Iran still holds the winning hand.
The Greatest Energy Shock in History
Even though there was no resumption of kinetic war between Iran and the US this weekend, the Strait remains as fully closed as it has ever been:
Check any source you want—there’s no tankers heading into the SoH. We’re looking at over 10mb/d crude still offline. This cumulative loss is gonna start redlining the whole system pretty soon. The massive global onshore inventory draw has already kicked off. #oott #iran pic.twitter.com/m42eb57zL3
— JH (@CRUDEOIL231) April 27, 2026
Yet, somehow, the price of oil in the US cannot rise above $100/bbl without being immediately smacked down by ‘somebody.’ That has become such an open secret that even Blooberg is running headlines like this:
by pnwdefector 
