Welcome to Monday. It’s going to be a particularly interesting week…
Weekend Trump vs M-F Trump
People have noticed the pattern. Weekend Trump is a mean sunofagun, calling for civilization-ending bombings, and complete blockades of all shipping to and from the Strait.
Monday through Friday, Trump is a conciliatory pussycat, prone to tweeting about imaginary negotiation progress right before the “markets” open.
Trump called for a complete blockade of all ships in and out of the Persian Gulf on Friday:
That second part in yellow, to "interdict every vessel in international waters that has paid a toll to Iran…" how is that not openly provocative to the recipient countries, such as China? This reads like yet another escalation (that will hopefully be walked back). pic.twitter.com/bp158K6A3T
— Chris Martenson (@chrismartenson) April 12, 2026
On Monday, it became “just those hailing from Iranian ports.”
“The United States to Blockade Ships Entering or Exiting Iranian Ports on April 13 at 10:00 A.M. ET. Thank you for your attention to this matter!” – President Donald J. Trump pic.twitter.com/gUBqyUGs1G
— The White House (@WhiteHouse) April 13, 2026
Iran prepared for this eventuality by placing a lot of oil in ‘floating storage’ outside to he Strait. Will the US interdict these vessels? What if they are being escorted by Chinese or other warships? What then?
One thing people may not know is that Iran has been holding floating storage in the Gulf of Oman. They have prepared for the possibility of a Naval blockade. They have also waited to sell oil. Now that the blockade is here, Iran can use the floating storage to sell the oil to…
— HFI Research (@HFI_Research) April 12, 2026
Once that floating storage is gone (green circle), that’s when the panic really begins to set in:
With Iran having kept up the flow of oil during the war, this will knock another ~2 Mb/d from daily global oil flows. And soon enough, they would have to shut in their fields too:
Looking at the limited empty oil tankers inside the Persian Gulf, plus Tehran’s onshore storage, Iran will need to shut in wells in 10-15 days (the same process its neighbours faced 5-6 weeks ago). Would that prompt Iran to change its negotiation approach? Unclear.
— Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) April 13, 2026
This would be another very significant shock to the world’s oil situation. However, all we’re likely to see this week is more mysterious selling of oil futures by ‘somebody.’
But, don’t forget, all of those will have to roll over by April 20th here in the US. That’s going to be a popcorn-worthy day.
Meanwhile, Netanyahu says the war isn’t over because Israel hasn’t gotten what it wants from the situation yet.
In a Hebrew-only press release, Netanyahu told Israelis the war on Iran has not ended and that he will continue "defeating Iran and its proxies." He presented a map highlighting Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, Yemen, and Gaza as Iran's attempts to strangle Israel, claiming Israel is… pic.twitter.com/j1Gyn2JqrL
— Quds News Network (@QudsNen) April 11, 2026
Which means the complete humiliation of Trump and the US is more a side dish to Israel than the main course.
“They report to me.” That phrasing seems deliberate (and accurate):
Benjamin Netanyahu says the Trump administration reports directly to him on a daily basis about Iran.Netanyahu says JD Vance reported every single detail of the peace talks to him.“He reported to me in detail, as members of this administration do every day.” pic.twitter.com/rnH8xhYKOU
— Shadow of Ezra (@ShadowofEzra) April 13, 2026
The Oil and Other Supply Troubles Are Just Beginning
While the US ““markets”” gyrate upwards with every possible chance of the Strait resuming full operations, the reality is far different.
Trump proudly proclaims that the US will now be selling oil to the world. The only problem? The US
by quercus-bicolor-2 
