In 2020, Bitcoin was a fantastic indicator – first on the way down, and then on the way back up again. Will it act the same way in 2025? Given the WEF/Fink-“digital gold” talk, it might act differently this time. The new leader of the WEF professes love for bitcoin and hatred for gold. Based on our Covid experience and their use of climate-change private jets, what do you think Fink et al are buying? How many COVID shots do you think Fink et al have received? I like to buy low and sell high. I know that’s blasphemy to some – but that’s just how I am.
Meanwhile, Bobby seems set to eliminate the organized (deliberate?) aluminum poisoning of our children, and by definition, our entire population. Now, if he can organize treatment of “long COVID” (long vax), we might get our society back to 1960s levels of testosterone.
Just imagine what that might lead to.
Consumer Economy
Personal Income (PI) 25.91T +112.3B (+0.43% m/m)
Durable Goods, New Orders (DGORDER) 0.30T -8.8B (-2.90% m/m)
Median New Home Sales Price (MSPNHSUS) 403.8K -3.40K (-0.84% m/m)
GDP (GDP) 30.35T +391.9B (+1.29% q/q)
The Q2 GDP print was 5% annualized; with inflation at perhaps 9%, that’s not keeping up. Personal Income rose by about 5% annualized as well. Not keeping up – but not contraction either.
Durable Goods orders fell again, hinting at contraction.
Median new home sale prices continue to slide lower, after reaching an all-time high in 2022. This month marks the second-lowest value since 2022. Real Estate prices continue to fall.
Credit & Rates
Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL) 6.60T -15.0B (-0.23% w/w)
Total Bank Credit (TOTBKCR) 18.65T -16.8B (-0.09% w/w)
30 Year Mortgage Rate (MORTGAGE30US) 6.56% -2 bp
10 Year Treasury (DGS10) 4.23% -3 bp
3-Month Year Treasury (DGS3MO) 4.16% -11 bp
QT is still happening. Meanwhile, bank credit suffered a strong decline – the first weekly decline (4.68% annualized) since April. If this continues, it is deflationary.
Short-term rates fell again this week, with the 3-month falling 11 bp, while 20 and 30-year bonds rose 3 bp. See how all the shorter-term bond rates (except for 20 & 30) are well below the Fed Funds rate (black line)?
That
by davefairtex 
