We’ve got a fat Fat Pipe today, so let’s dive in.
Peak Oil Has Arrived in the U.S. and Almost Nobody Is Ready for It
I beat the oil drum loudly because it’s so difficult to overstate just how vitally important it is for our future prosperity that not just the volumes of oil continue to course through our economic arteries and veins, but also the available net energy of that oil. It’s both quantity and quality that matter here.
Too few people appreciate these ideas, which is understandable because they’ve been so completely surrounded by abundant oil their whole lives that it would be like trying to explain water to a fish.
But, at long last, the time has arrived to have that conversation out loud and in public. Again.
To begin, various analytical firms have finally caught on:
Kpler cuts 2025 crude forecastKpler has lowered its US crude supply forecast by 120,000 to 170,000 barrels a day for the rest of 2025 and into 2026, as weaker prices threaten to slow shale production. Brent is now expected to average $60 to $65 a barrel from the fourth quarter… pic.twitter.com/9OGwLd75Sj
— Kpler (@Kpler) May 5, 2025
It’s now “okay” for oil analysts to go against the US DOE and predict lower output this year, next, and every year beyond.
So, right on cue, it would seem that the dreaded Peak Oil has arrived:
Diamondback Energy Inc., the largest independent oil producer in the Permian Basin, says production has likely peaked in America’s prolific shale fields and will decline in the months ahead after crude prices plummeted.
The Texas company trimmed its own full-year production forecast Monday, and said in a letter Monday to investors that it expects onshore oil rigs across the entire US industry to drop by almost 10% by the end of
by jhgoodwin 
