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Worse Than First Feared

The User's Profile Chris Martenson April 12, 2011
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The economic impact of the earthquake, tsunami, and ongoing Fukushima disaster on Japan’s economy, that is.

Of course, that’s not much of a surprise to readers here, but it will definitely be creeping out into the broader markets over time, and should be fully recognized in another two months or so.

The economic minister of Japan, not usually given to anything other than very measured statements, has come out with some rather bold pronouncements, including the idea that Japan may have difficulty financing all of the costs due to an already too-high level of debt.

Here’s the story:

Japan quake’s economic impact worse than first feared

April 12, 2011

(Reuters) – The economic damage from Japan’s massive earthquake and tsunami last month is likely to be worse than first thought as power shortages curtail factory output and disrupt supply chains, the country’s economics minister warned on Tuesday.

The Bank of Japan governor said the economy was in a “severe state,” while central bankers were uncertain when efforts to rebuild the tsunami-ravaged northeast would boost growth, according to minutes from a meeting held three days after a record earthquake struck Japan on March 11.

The government and main opposition party have agreed to a spending package to get some reconstruction work started, but setting a large additional budget will be difficult due to Japan’s heavy debt burden.

“After a natural disaster, people tend to refrain from spending and you get a sense that factory output will shrink,” Economics Minister Kaoru Yosano told reporters after a cabinet meeting.

“In some areas, the impact could be very big.”

Recent headlines from around the world have confirmed that these insults are not confined to Japan:

Chrysler Output Restricted by Shortages From Japan Quake (Apr 11)

Smartphone Parts Shortage Caused By Japanese Quake (Apr 11)

Chinese factories face shortages due to Japan quake (Apr 11)

Largest U.S. dealer expects Japanese auto shortage (Apr 5)

The list of wounds to the complex economic system in Japan is long. There are lost farms and factories and displaced workers due to the earthquake and tsunami, there is an ever-widening exclusion zone around the Fukushima plant, there are export bans on Japanese goods by several nations, critical supply shortages from bottleneck industries, a scared citizenry in emergency saving mode, and topping it all off is a severe and prolonged energy shortage throttling 40% of Japan’s GDP.

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