When Political Narratives Become Economic Quicksand

The BLS recently “revised down” the jobs number for the past year (March-24 to March-25) by a whopping 911,000.  As a result some are now saying that the US has actually been in a  recession, which is not the least bit surprising to either myself pr Paul Kiker because for the past year we’ve been tracking around 10 major recession indicators that have been flashing red.

How did the BLS get things so wrong?  The generous interpretation is that their ridiculously flawed “Birth-Death” model got caught wrong-footed by the Covid stimulus gyrations and economic perturbations.

The less generous interpretation is that the BLS was trying to help the Harris campaign by making things look a lot better than they actually were.

So we discussed the jobs numbers pretty thoroughly.

We also dove into gold, powering again to new highs, and the possibility that the signal gold is telegraphing is that big money is moving in advance of … something.  Something big.

• It reminds us all of this:Is gold saying a massive currency accident is on the way?  Maybe a major war?  Who knows?  But it’s something.

  Next, people struggling to make mortgage payments or who are currently holding off on buying a house due to economic inability, are probably not going to be helped all that much by even a 0.50% rate cut by the Fed.

  The reason?  All of their other costs in life, such as electricity, auto insurance, real estate taxes, and home insurance, are rising so rapidly that their monthly nut is getting eroded faster than any possible decline in mortgage rates.

  Oh, and let’s not forget health insurance:

  

  The truly infuriating part about this particular bit of news is that the BLS is gaslighting everyone by telling them health insurance costs have gone down over the past 5 years.

  

  In fact, this has been everyone’s actual experience.

  

  Paul Kiker finished up this podcast with another request that everyone take a good, hard look at their portfolio and income and wealth positioning to take into account the possibility that either lackluster market returns and/or higher-than-expected inflation could be stiff future realities.

  To make an appointment to speak with Paul Kiker’s team, just click this link, fill out the simple form, and someone from his office will reach out within 48 business hours to schedule your free, no-obligation, no hard sales pressure review of your circumstances, positioning, and financial situation.