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Image | Gordon Chang: The Reasons for China’s Imminent Bust
Gordon Chang: The Reasons for China’s Imminent Bust
by Chris Martenson

The global dominant narrative about China is wrong, claims Gordon Chang. Don't expect it to be the 'pocketbook of last resort' that will rescue world markets from their current malaise.

And don't expect its remarkable economic growth to continue. In fact, expect a "hard landing" for China – and soon.

Forbes.com columnist and international lawyer Gordon Chang has spent much of his time since the early 1980s working and living in China. His primary knowledge of the country and his relationships there give him a superior understanding to how its economy is actually faring than many analysts based in the West. And what he sees today doesn't inspire confidence.

We are seeing the first real signs of slowdown in China's economic growth looking at the year-over-year numbers for the past several months. Car sales have decreased nearly 5% since last year, and property values are beginning to plummet in key markets (30% in October alone in Shanghai).

 
Gordon Chang: The Reasons for China’s Imminent Bust
 by Chris Martenson

The global dominant narrative about China is wrong, claims Gordon Chang. Don't expect it to be the 'pocketbook of last resort' that will rescue world markets from their current malaise.

And don't expect its remarkable economic growth to continue. In fact, expect a "hard landing" for China – and soon.

Forbes.com columnist and international lawyer Gordon Chang has spent much of his time since the early 1980s working and living in China. His primary knowledge of the country and his relationships there give him a superior understanding to how its economy is actually faring than many analysts based in the West. And what he sees today doesn't inspire confidence.

We are seeing the first real signs of slowdown in China's economic growth looking at the year-over-year numbers for the past several months. Car sales have decreased nearly 5% since last year, and property values are beginning to plummet in key markets (30% in October alone in Shanghai).

 
Image | Exclusive Arnie Gundersen Interview: The Dangers of Fukushima Are Worse and Longer-Lived Than We Think
Exclusive Arnie Gundersen Interview: The Dangers of Fukushima Are Worse and Longer-Lived Than We Think
by Chris Martenson

"I have said it's worse than Chernobyl, and I’ll stand by that. There was an enormous amount of radiation given out in the first two to three weeks of the event. And add the wind blowing inland. It could very well have brought the nation of Japan to its knees. I mean, there is so…
Exclusive Arnie Gundersen Interview: The Dangers of Fukushima Are Worse and Longer-Lived Than We Think
 by Chris Martenson

"I have said it's worse than Chernobyl, and I’ll stand by that. There was an enormous amount of radiation given out in the first two to three weeks of the event. And add the wind blowing inland. It could very well have brought the nation of Japan to its knees. I mean, there is so…
Image | Mapping The Fugly Future with David Collum
Mapping The Fugly Future with David Collum
by David Collum

In the course of his info-scouting, Chris has conversations with many different thinkers. Some are well-known to you; others perhaps less so. An important objective of our podcast interview series is to expose our listeners to the variety of voices and points of view that Chris considers when developing the perspective that he brings to his reporting.

David Collum may be a new voice to many of you. Like Chris, David came to the field of macroeconomic study from a scientific background. Again like Chris, his published observations and predictions have begun to amass a readership built on respect for his emprical approach to projecting the future. For those of you unfamilar with David's work, we think you'll enjoy having this insider's ear to his recent recorded discussion with Chris, which covers a wide range of topics.

In short, David sees a world where market risk has been removed (through misguided government intervention), leading to perverse behavior. In many ways, we are repeating the sins of past empires – and he warns us that history has a much higher incident rate of soverign insolvency than we may want to believe.
Mapping The Fugly Future with David Collum
 by David Collum

In the course of his info-scouting, Chris has conversations with many different thinkers. Some are well-known to you; others perhaps less so. An important objective of our podcast interview series is to expose our listeners to the variety of voices and points of view that Chris considers when developing the perspective that he brings to his reporting.

David Collum may be a new voice to many of you. Like Chris, David came to the field of macroeconomic study from a scientific background. Again like Chris, his published observations and predictions have begun to amass a readership built on respect for his emprical approach to projecting the future. For those of you unfamilar with David's work, we think you'll enjoy having this insider's ear to his recent recorded discussion with Chris, which covers a wide range of topics.

In short, David sees a world where market risk has been removed (through misguided government intervention), leading to perverse behavior. In many ways, we are repeating the sins of past empires – and he warns us that history has a much higher incident rate of soverign insolvency than we may want to believe.
Image | Egypt’s Warning: Are You Listening?
Egypt’s Warning: Are You Listening?
by Chris Martenson

One day, a fruit and vegetable seller was arrested in Tunisia, sparking social unrest, and a few weeks later the government of Egypt was set to topple. 

Such is the nature of complex, chaotic, and unpredictable systems. The stresses build for years and years, and nothing really seems to be happening, but then everything suddenly changes. Egypt is therefore emblematic of what we might expect in any complex system in which pressures are building, such as the US Treasury market.  

Can events in complex systems ever be predicted? No…and yes. No, because the precise timing and details can never be predicted. Yes, because we can be certain that anything that is unsustainable will someday cease to continue and things that are horribly imbalanced will someday topple. We can also be certain that the change, when it comes, will be rather sudden and abrupt, rather than gentle and linear.

That is, we can easily predict that a complex system will shift, and that it will probably do so rapidly, but not exactly when or by how much.

Egypt’s Warning: Are You Listening?
 by Chris Martenson

One day, a fruit and vegetable seller was arrested in Tunisia, sparking social unrest, and a few weeks later the government of Egypt was set to topple. 

Such is the nature of complex, chaotic, and unpredictable systems. The stresses build for years and years, and nothing really seems to be happening, but then everything suddenly changes. Egypt is therefore emblematic of what we might expect in any complex system in which pressures are building, such as the US Treasury market.  

Can events in complex systems ever be predicted? No…and yes. No, because the precise timing and details can never be predicted. Yes, because we can be certain that anything that is unsustainable will someday cease to continue and things that are horribly imbalanced will someday topple. We can also be certain that the change, when it comes, will be rather sudden and abrupt, rather than gentle and linear.

That is, we can easily predict that a complex system will shift, and that it will probably do so rapidly, but not exactly when or by how much.

Image | Wikileaks: US Officials Concerned Saudi Arabia Has Less Oil Than Claimed
Wikileaks: US Officials Concerned Saudi Arabia Has Less Oil Than Claimed
 PREVIEW
by Chris Martenson

There has been another Wikileaks release, exposing the US diplomatic channels as being aware of the possibility of Saudi overstatement of reserves and the possibility that future Saudi ‘swing production’ may be far more limited than believed.

Here’s how the Guardian UK put it:

The US fears that Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest crude oil exporter, may not have enough reserves to prevent oil prices escalating, confidential cables from its embassy in Riyadh show.

The cables, released by WikiLeaks, urge Washington to take seriously a warning from a senior Saudi government oil executive that the kingdom’s crude oil reserves may have been overstated by as much as 300bn barrels – nearly 40%.

(Source) 

Wikileaks: US Officials Concerned Saudi Arabia Has Less Oil Than Claimed
 PREVIEW by Chris Martenson

There has been another Wikileaks release, exposing the US diplomatic channels as being aware of the possibility of Saudi overstatement of reserves and the possibility that future Saudi ‘swing production’ may be far more limited than believed.

Here’s how the Guardian UK put it:

The US fears that Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest crude oil exporter, may not have enough reserves to prevent oil prices escalating, confidential cables from its embassy in Riyadh show.

The cables, released by WikiLeaks, urge Washington to take seriously a warning from a senior Saudi government oil executive that the kingdom’s crude oil reserves may have been overstated by as much as 300bn barrels – nearly 40%.

(Source) 

Image | Germany Attacks US Economic Policy
Germany Attacks US Economic Policy
 PREVIEW
by Chris Martenson

The title of this piece comes straight from a Financial Times article posted this morning. The German finance minister leveled the cannons and blasted away at US policy, daring to point out that emperor has no clothes.

In a vigorous and unflinching attack, he described US economic policies as “clueless” and pointed out that the US stance towards China’s exchange rate policy is hypocritical.

In several of the scenarios that I have written, I have used ‘words’ from a German official as the trigger for massive, disruptive change. So perhaps I am overly sensitized to this particular development, but I am convinced that this is exactly how the ball gets rolling; someone in a position of authority speaks the truth.

Germany Attacks US Economic Policy
 PREVIEW by Chris Martenson

The title of this piece comes straight from a Financial Times article posted this morning. The German finance minister leveled the cannons and blasted away at US policy, daring to point out that emperor has no clothes.

In a vigorous and unflinching attack, he described US economic policies as “clueless” and pointed out that the US stance towards China’s exchange rate policy is hypocritical.

In several of the scenarios that I have written, I have used ‘words’ from a German official as the trigger for massive, disruptive change. So perhaps I am overly sensitized to this particular development, but I am convinced that this is exactly how the ball gets rolling; someone in a position of authority speaks the truth.

Image | Poking China, Goosing Gold
Poking China, Goosing Gold
 PREVIEW
by Chris Martenson

Well, what the Fed meeting started, the Obama administration seems intent on continuing; namely, the trashing of the dollar and the elevation of gold.  First, the Fed announced that they are ready to print more thin-air money, something that comes as no surprise to anyone here, as this has been predicted on these pages for several years.  It is just the most obvious outcome (or ending) for any fiat currency. 

Then the Obama administration, almost certainly engaging in pre-election maneuvering, poked a very sharp stick at China in a manner of which the potential impact should not be underestimated:

Poking China, Goosing Gold
 PREVIEW by Chris Martenson

Well, what the Fed meeting started, the Obama administration seems intent on continuing; namely, the trashing of the dollar and the elevation of gold.  First, the Fed announced that they are ready to print more thin-air money, something that comes as no surprise to anyone here, as this has been predicted on these pages for several years.  It is just the most obvious outcome (or ending) for any fiat currency. 

Then the Obama administration, almost certainly engaging in pre-election maneuvering, poked a very sharp stick at China in a manner of which the potential impact should not be underestimated:

Image | Japanese Oil Tanker Attacked in the Strait of Hormuz
Japanese Oil Tanker Attacked in the Strait of Hormuz
 PREVIEW
by Chris Martenson

One of the things we keep an eye out for around here is the possibility of an event that could tip the scales.  Anything that might disrupt oil traffic in the Strait of Hormuz is right at the very top of our list of events to pay especially close attention to.

Here I take a closer look at the recent attack on the Japanese supertanker in the Strait of Hormuz.

Last week there was a mysterious incident in the Strait of Hormuz involving the Japanese supertanker “M Star,” a 314,000 metric ton oil tanker measuring a bit over 1,000 feet in length.
Japanese Oil Tanker Attacked in the Strait of Hormuz
 PREVIEW by Chris Martenson

One of the things we keep an eye out for around here is the possibility of an event that could tip the scales.  Anything that might disrupt oil traffic in the Strait of Hormuz is right at the very top of our list of events to pay especially close attention to.

Here I take a closer look at the recent attack on the Japanese supertanker in the Strait of Hormuz.

Last week there was a mysterious incident in the Strait of Hormuz involving the Japanese supertanker “M Star,” a 314,000 metric ton oil tanker measuring a bit over 1,000 feet in length.
Image | Growth and the Upcoming Iranian War
Growth and the Upcoming Iranian War
 PREVIEW
by Chris Martenson

Growth and the Upcoming Iranian War


Monday, July 12, 2010

Executive Summary



  • A war with Iran seems likely before the US elections in November.

  • The US has committed an act of war in deciding to embargo Iranian fuel shipments and international financial activities.

  • The “urgency for dealing with Iran” is driven more by oil competition than military crisis.

  • The US militarily occupies or diplomatically controls every strategically-located oil producer in the Middle East except for Iran.

  • The most probable explanation for the sudden concern about Iran is likely centered over energy and the ‘requirement’ of growth that our economic and financial systems demand.

  • Seeking militarily-secured access to oil halfway around the world is a weak strategy.

  • An Iranian war has the potential to severely disrupt developed economies due to another wild oil-price spike.

I am troubled by the renewed beating of the Iranian war drums by the West and Israel.  Troubled, in part, because the world economy needs a war with Iran right now like it needs a hole in the head.  Or perhaps I should say a hole in the barrel, because the most likely immediate outcome of an Iranian war would be a diminution of oil traversing out of the Persian Gulf and a gigantic leap in the price of oil.


Both would add terrible stresses to the global financial system at this particular moment.


The last time I wrote about the urgent beating of the Iranian war drums was in December of 2009.  Then, too, we saw a near-perfect coordination of the media in breathlessly “reporting” whatever the US and Israeli military elements wanted communicated.  Basically it boiled down to something like this:  “THE US MUST IMMEDIATELY DEAL WITH THIS URGENT THREAT RIGHT NOW – NO WAITING – IT IS THAT SERIOUS!!!”  Sorry for shouting there, but that’s how it came across to me before it all, oddly and quietly, slipped off of the headlines and out of our collective consciousness, until just recently.
Growth and the Upcoming Iranian War
 PREVIEW by Chris Martenson

Growth and the Upcoming Iranian War


Monday, July 12, 2010

Executive Summary



  • A war with Iran seems likely before the US elections in November.

  • The US has committed an act of war in deciding to embargo Iranian fuel shipments and international financial activities.

  • The “urgency for dealing with Iran” is driven more by oil competition than military crisis.

  • The US militarily occupies or diplomatically controls every strategically-located oil producer in the Middle East except for Iran.

  • The most probable explanation for the sudden concern about Iran is likely centered over energy and the ‘requirement’ of growth that our economic and financial systems demand.

  • Seeking militarily-secured access to oil halfway around the world is a weak strategy.

  • An Iranian war has the potential to severely disrupt developed economies due to another wild oil-price spike.

I am troubled by the renewed beating of the Iranian war drums by the West and Israel.  Troubled, in part, because the world economy needs a war with Iran right now like it needs a hole in the head.  Or perhaps I should say a hole in the barrel, because the most likely immediate outcome of an Iranian war would be a diminution of oil traversing out of the Persian Gulf and a gigantic leap in the price of oil.


Both would add terrible stresses to the global financial system at this particular moment.


The last time I wrote about the urgent beating of the Iranian war drums was in December of 2009.  Then, too, we saw a near-perfect coordination of the media in breathlessly “reporting” whatever the US and Israeli military elements wanted communicated.  Basically it boiled down to something like this:  “THE US MUST IMMEDIATELY DEAL WITH THIS URGENT THREAT RIGHT NOW – NO WAITING – IT IS THAT SERIOUS!!!”  Sorry for shouting there, but that’s how it came across to me before it all, oddly and quietly, slipped off of the headlines and out of our collective consciousness, until just recently.
Image | Deep Impact: Why The Deepwater Disaster Spells Serious Trouble
Deep Impact: Why The Deepwater Disaster Spells Serious Trouble
by Chris Martenson
A new Martenson Report is ready for enrolled members.
Link – Deep Impact: Why The Deepwater Disaster Spells Serious Trouble

Executive Summary

  • We can say with absolute certainty that future oil exploration and development costs are going to rise.
  • Our date with an oil supply shock now seems probable for the 2011 to 2012 timeframe.
  • A new paradigm is emerging, in which downsizing trumps growth.
  • A permanent energy crunch will lead to higher prices for all things connected to energy.
  • It would not be too strong to suggest that our federal commitment to energy efficiency is a farce. 
  • In terms of personal planning, do not take anything for granted.
  • While I am not sure how this will play out yet, I am quite comfortable stating that the age of abundance is drawing to a close.
Deep Impact: Why The Deepwater Disaster Spells Serious Trouble
 by Chris Martenson
A new Martenson Report is ready for enrolled members.
Link – Deep Impact: Why The Deepwater Disaster Spells Serious Trouble

Executive Summary

  • We can say with absolute certainty that future oil exploration and development costs are going to rise.
  • Our date with an oil supply shock now seems probable for the 2011 to 2012 timeframe.
  • A new paradigm is emerging, in which downsizing trumps growth.
  • A permanent energy crunch will lead to higher prices for all things connected to energy.
  • It would not be too strong to suggest that our federal commitment to energy efficiency is a farce. 
  • In terms of personal planning, do not take anything for granted.
  • While I am not sure how this will play out yet, I am quite comfortable stating that the age of abundance is drawing to a close.
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