There’s a new Martenson Report ready for enrolled members.
Link to Inflation vs. Deflation – What You Need to Know (Part II)
A snippet:
There is simply no more contentious or important issue sitting before everyone these days than resolving the question of whether deflation or inflation lies before us. Sides have been drawn, opinions hardened, and camps formed.
When I write these reports, I do my best to peer just a bit further down the road than most. I study and analyze and write because I have found great value in being ahead of the curve. Illuminating the path a bit further out can provide an enormous benefit, especially if actionable ideas are the result.
So let’s clear something up right away: Unless the economy collapses into a smoking deflationary ruin, there’s another business cycle in front of us. Nothing ever goes straight to zero, and the most probable outcome for the future involves a whole series of wiggles going up and down. While I am confident that the distant future most likely consists of a world of less, not more, I expect we will not get there in a straight line. My belief is that there’s a business cycle or two in front of us.
There’s a new Martenson Report ready for enrolled members.
Link to Inflation vs. Deflation – What You Need to Know (Part II)
A snippet:
There is simply no more contentious or important issue sitting before everyone these days than resolving the question of whether deflation or inflation lies before us. Sides have been drawn, opinions hardened, and camps formed.
When I write these reports, I do my best to peer just a bit further down the road than most. I study and analyze and write because I have found great value in being ahead of the curve. Illuminating the path a bit further out can provide an enormous benefit, especially if actionable ideas are the result.
So let’s clear something up right away: Unless the economy collapses into a smoking deflationary ruin, there’s another business cycle in front of us. Nothing ever goes straight to zero, and the most probable outcome for the future involves a whole series of wiggles going up and down. While I am confident that the distant future most likely consists of a world of less, not more, I expect we will not get there in a straight line. My belief is that there’s a business cycle or two in front of us.
There’s a new Martenson Report ready for enrolled members.
Link to: Inflation vs. Deflation – What Comes Next?
Here’s a snippet:
One of the key questions of our day, especially for those who have wealth to protect, is, “What’s going to happen to the dollar?” More specifically, do we foresee an increase in the value of money going forward (deflation), or a decrease in the value of money (inflation)? Should we reserve a small amount of concern for the possibility of hyperinflation, which means the rapid and often total destruction of a currency?
There happens to be a lot of discussion around this topic these days. Unfortunately, much of it is confusing and contradictory, because far too much misinformation is included in the mix. So let’s begin by getting ourselves on firm footing before we look at the data.
(…)
Inflation correlates poorly with growth in the monetary base, making that statistic relatively useless as a predictor of inflation. However, inflation correlates extremely well with growth in government spending, meaning that we’d do well to track that statistic closely.
The current economic crisis is being fought tooth and nail by a determined Federal Reserve (in the role of the "enabler") and an equally-determined US government (in the role of the heavy-lifter, assuming all the lion’s share of the long-term debt and risk). Together, these institutions have virtually consigned future generations to the enormous challenge of wrestling with bloated budgets in desperate need of trimming, further compounded by coinciding with periods of high inflation.
There’s a new Martenson Report ready for enrolled members.
Link to: Inflation vs. Deflation – What Comes Next?
Here’s a snippet:
One of the key questions of our day, especially for those who have wealth to protect, is, “What’s going to happen to the dollar?” More specifically, do we foresee an increase in the value of money going forward (deflation), or a decrease in the value of money (inflation)? Should we reserve a small amount of concern for the possibility of hyperinflation, which means the rapid and often total destruction of a currency?
There happens to be a lot of discussion around this topic these days. Unfortunately, much of it is confusing and contradictory, because far too much misinformation is included in the mix. So let’s begin by getting ourselves on firm footing before we look at the data.
(…)
Inflation correlates poorly with growth in the monetary base, making that statistic relatively useless as a predictor of inflation. However, inflation correlates extremely well with growth in government spending, meaning that we’d do well to track that statistic closely.
The current economic crisis is being fought tooth and nail by a determined Federal Reserve (in the role of the "enabler") and an equally-determined US government (in the role of the heavy-lifter, assuming all the lion’s share of the long-term debt and risk). Together, these institutions have virtually consigned future generations to the enormous challenge of wrestling with bloated budgets in desperate need of trimming, further compounded by coinciding with periods of high inflation.
There’s a new Martenson Report ready for enrolled members. This week I spell out the five high level elements that I regularly track to guide my understanding of where we are and where we are headed.
A snippet:
Severe structural damage has already been inflicted on our economy. As I wrote two weeks ago in It Has Hit the Fan:
If you have been waiting for further confirmation about the direction of the economy, or waiting for a sign that it’s now time to get serious about preparing for a future filled with less, this report is written for you.
You are living in the midst of the collapse of western economies, which are moving from a more complicated state to a less complicated one. This is it. Keep a journal, because it’s happening right now.
After the Great Depression, many people remarked that it was only obvious in retrospect. While it was unfolding, things steadily eroded. But 75% of the workforce remained employed, while hopeful signs of progress were constantly trotted out by various politicians, private economists, and official-sounding government agencies. It is often quite difficult to appreciate the true magnitude of sweeping change while it is occurring.
The most pressing question now is this: What can we expect next, and when?
In this report, I will give you the precise combination of macro-events that will cause me to issue an alert and kick my thinking and actions into new orbits.
Best,
Chris Martenson
There’s a new Martenson Report ready for enrolled members. This week I spell out the five high level elements that I regularly track to guide my understanding of where we are and where we are headed.
A snippet:
Severe structural damage has already been inflicted on our economy. As I wrote two weeks ago in It Has Hit the Fan:
If you have been waiting for further confirmation about the direction of the economy, or waiting for a sign that it’s now time to get serious about preparing for a future filled with less, this report is written for you.
You are living in the midst of the collapse of western economies, which are moving from a more complicated state to a less complicated one. This is it. Keep a journal, because it’s happening right now.
After the Great Depression, many people remarked that it was only obvious in retrospect. While it was unfolding, things steadily eroded. But 75% of the workforce remained employed, while hopeful signs of progress were constantly trotted out by various politicians, private economists, and official-sounding government agencies. It is often quite difficult to appreciate the true magnitude of sweeping change while it is occurring.
The most pressing question now is this: What can we expect next, and when?
In this report, I will give you the precise combination of macro-events that will cause me to issue an alert and kick my thinking and actions into new orbits.
Best,
Chris Martenson
On April 1st, in the context of writing about a newly appreciated shortfall in Social Security funding by the CBO, I wrote this (with the part I wish to discuss in bold):
Here’s a prediction – [the sharply reduced Social Security surplus] will be revised to the worse in about 6 months. I base this prediction on my belief that more people will opt for retirement than are currently projected and that entitlement program tax receipts will be below current projections. Also, nearly every prediction by the CBO has been revised to the worse over the past year, so I am “riding the trend” with this prediction.
At the time, several people commented that they thought this prediction faulty and saw the possibility of the exact opposite as being more likely.
I based my prediction on two concepts:
I can’t say for sure which of these reasons is most responsible here, but it looks like #1 is the winner for now:
On April 1st, in the context of writing about a newly appreciated shortfall in Social Security funding by the CBO, I wrote this (with the part I wish to discuss in bold):
Here’s a prediction – [the sharply reduced Social Security surplus] will be revised to the worse in about 6 months. I base this prediction on my belief that more people will opt for retirement than are currently projected and that entitlement program tax receipts will be below current projections. Also, nearly every prediction by the CBO has been revised to the worse over the past year, so I am “riding the trend” with this prediction.
At the time, several people commented that they thought this prediction faulty and saw the possibility of the exact opposite as being more likely.
I based my prediction on two concepts:
I can’t say for sure which of these reasons is most responsible here, but it looks like #1 is the winner for now:
Hello and Happy Memorial Day!
There’s a new Martenson Report ready for enrolled members. It can be accessed by clicking the title below, or going to the Martenson Report page. As always, it has already been sent as a newsletter so you should also find it in your inbox.
Here’s a snippet:
Food Outlook 2009 – Understanding the Risks
Introduction
Food is something that many of us take for granted, but it is important to recognize that this luxury is a recent development in human history. It is time to give more thought to this critical staple in our lives.
In March of 2008, food commodity prices hit an all-time high. This coincided with a world-wide food crisis, food riots, and even a few instances of national rice hoarding. Many believe that this was triggered by economic conditions (e.g. a flood of cheap money), not a fundamental or structural shortfall in food production. But I hold the view that both were at fault.
Food demand has grown steadily over the years, as has food supply. However, in recent years the excess margin of supply over demand has tightened and even gone negative several times. Reserve stocks are incredibly tight, resting at levels not seen since the early 1970’s.
It is easily conceivable that food deliveries could be disrupted within any country, leading to rapid onset of local food shortages. This report will apprise you of several of the challenges that currently exist regarding world food supplies and the possibility that these challenges could lead to a structural shortfall in global food supplies in 2009 or 2010. It also contains specific actions that could greatly enhance your own food security.
Hello and Happy Memorial Day!
There’s a new Martenson Report ready for enrolled members. It can be accessed by clicking the title below, or going to the Martenson Report page. As always, it has already been sent as a newsletter so you should also find it in your inbox.
Here’s a snippet:
Food Outlook 2009 – Understanding the Risks
Introduction
Food is something that many of us take for granted, but it is important to recognize that this luxury is a recent development in human history. It is time to give more thought to this critical staple in our lives.
In March of 2008, food commodity prices hit an all-time high. This coincided with a world-wide food crisis, food riots, and even a few instances of national rice hoarding. Many believe that this was triggered by economic conditions (e.g. a flood of cheap money), not a fundamental or structural shortfall in food production. But I hold the view that both were at fault.
Food demand has grown steadily over the years, as has food supply. However, in recent years the excess margin of supply over demand has tightened and even gone negative several times. Reserve stocks are incredibly tight, resting at levels not seen since the early 1970’s.
It is easily conceivable that food deliveries could be disrupted within any country, leading to rapid onset of local food shortages. This report will apprise you of several of the challenges that currently exist regarding world food supplies and the possibility that these challenges could lead to a structural shortfall in global food supplies in 2009 or 2010. It also contains specific actions that could greatly enhance your own food security.
by hgrootveldgmail-com