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by Chris Martenson

Exactly 40 years ago today, on August 15th 1971, the US dollar was released from the cruel tethers of an international gold standard. Today, we find notable monetary authorities seeking its return.

In the middle of a lengthy ~2,500 word speech in which Nixon sought to stabilize prices by implementing price controls and stabilize foreign trade by imposing tariffs, he slipped in these 100 words that sought to stabilize the dollar by going off the gold standard:

In recent weeks, the speculators have been waging an all-out war on the American dollar. The strength of a nation’s currency is based on the strength of that nation’s economy – and the American economy is by far the strongest in the world. Accordingly, I have directed the Secretary of the Treasury to take the action necessary to defend the dollar against the speculators.

I have directed Secretary Connally to suspend temporarily the convertibility of the American dollar except in amounts and conditions determined to be in the interest of monetary stability and in the best interests of the United States.

It turns out that such intervention was actually counterproductive to the stated aims, so we are tempted to suspect that a different set of aims was met instead. 

Happy 40th Birthday, Fiat Dollar!
by Chris Martenson

Exactly 40 years ago today, on August 15th 1971, the US dollar was released from the cruel tethers of an international gold standard. Today, we find notable monetary authorities seeking its return.

In the middle of a lengthy ~2,500 word speech in which Nixon sought to stabilize prices by implementing price controls and stabilize foreign trade by imposing tariffs, he slipped in these 100 words that sought to stabilize the dollar by going off the gold standard:

In recent weeks, the speculators have been waging an all-out war on the American dollar. The strength of a nation’s currency is based on the strength of that nation’s economy – and the American economy is by far the strongest in the world. Accordingly, I have directed the Secretary of the Treasury to take the action necessary to defend the dollar against the speculators.

I have directed Secretary Connally to suspend temporarily the convertibility of the American dollar except in amounts and conditions determined to be in the interest of monetary stability and in the best interests of the United States.

It turns out that such intervention was actually counterproductive to the stated aims, so we are tempted to suspect that a different set of aims was met instead. 

by Chris Martenson
Thursday, July 28, 2011

Executive Summary

  • How stocks, bonds, precious metals, commodities, the dollar and, real estate will most likely fare post-August 2nd
  • Why August-October will be a period of particularly high stress for the Treasury market
  • What the “big picture” endgame is beyond today’s debt ceiling histrionics and how it is now accelerating towards its inevitable conclusion
  • Why it’s now time to hedge your bets

Part I – Debt Ceiling Dilemma: The Foul Choice Facing Investors

If you have not yet read Part I, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first. 

Part II – What Should Happen and What Will Happen

As always, we can easily describe what should happen, but that’s not what will happen. Deflationists sometimes fall into the “what should happen” camp and find themselves mystified, if not disappointed, when those events fail to materialize. So do inflationists, just in the other direction.

My view is that what should happen almost always never does. There’s no such thing as a free market defined by willing, free-thinking participants. Instead, far too many market prices are managed, influenced, and/or manipulated, and this distorts both the timing and the severity of what actually happens.

For example, right now market participants should not be buying ten-year US Treasury bonds at 2.5%. Looking at the rates of inflation and the fiscal train wreck approaching the US government, a fair rate might be closer to 7.5% or higher. Where Treasury interest rates actually are and where they should be are very different propositions.

The thing that will most impact the world financial system will be if the US suffers a credit downgrade, which would be a near certainty if and/or when the US defaults on its obligations, even briefly.

What Should Happen and What Will Happen
PREVIEW by Chris Martenson
Thursday, July 28, 2011

Executive Summary

  • How stocks, bonds, precious metals, commodities, the dollar and, real estate will most likely fare post-August 2nd
  • Why August-October will be a period of particularly high stress for the Treasury market
  • What the “big picture” endgame is beyond today’s debt ceiling histrionics and how it is now accelerating towards its inevitable conclusion
  • Why it’s now time to hedge your bets

Part I – Debt Ceiling Dilemma: The Foul Choice Facing Investors

If you have not yet read Part I, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first. 

Part II – What Should Happen and What Will Happen

As always, we can easily describe what should happen, but that’s not what will happen. Deflationists sometimes fall into the “what should happen” camp and find themselves mystified, if not disappointed, when those events fail to materialize. So do inflationists, just in the other direction.

My view is that what should happen almost always never does. There’s no such thing as a free market defined by willing, free-thinking participants. Instead, far too many market prices are managed, influenced, and/or manipulated, and this distorts both the timing and the severity of what actually happens.

For example, right now market participants should not be buying ten-year US Treasury bonds at 2.5%. Looking at the rates of inflation and the fiscal train wreck approaching the US government, a fair rate might be closer to 7.5% or higher. Where Treasury interest rates actually are and where they should be are very different propositions.

The thing that will most impact the world financial system will be if the US suffers a credit downgrade, which would be a near certainty if and/or when the US defaults on its obligations, even briefly.

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