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by charleshughsmith

The Transition to a Post-Friction Economy

by Charles Hugh Smith, contributing editor
Tuesday, November 1, 2011

Executive Summary

  • Entrenched interests keep our markets from being free
  • We’re living in a fool’s paradise (but for how much longer?)
  • The forced choices headed our way
  • What the post-friction economy will look like
  • 2012-2105: The Era of Transformation begins

Part I – How Much of the US Economy Is Friction

If you have not yet read Part I, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

Part II – The Transition to a Post-Friction Economy

In Part I, we pursued the idea that much of the US economy is, in essence, unproductive friction that is overcome with vast borrowing — itself a form of friction — and the importing of fossil fuels. We also noted that the Central State/cartel “capitalism” partnership has greatly expanded the unproductive, uncompetitive “friction” segments of the economy and has limited consumer “choice” to purposely-selected menus designed to appear like a “free market” while benefiting State fiefdoms and private-sector cartels.

Entrenched Interests Keep Our Markets From Being Free

Looking at the sources and costs of friction gives us some insight into issues that are often seen as political — for example, the costs and benefits of borrowing trillions of dollars into existence every year and the costs/benefits of State regulation. Once we recognize how rising systemic friction will eventually freeze the system, then we also recognize that the path we’re on is unsustainable, and the political “rightness” or “wrongness” of increasing debt to fund the forces of friction becomes irrelevant.

The same can be said of State regulation. Given that one of the purposes of government is to protect the nation’s “commons” — air, water, public lands, and other shared resources — then some regulation is necessary to limit exploitation and predation of the commons by either private parties or the State itself. 

But we have confused productive regulation with regulation that achieves little beyond diverting funds to unproductive segments of the economy. There are hundreds, if not thousands of examples in every sector from criminal justice to farm subsidies to health care.

How about the enormous expense of the “war on drugs” and the resulting prison complex and criminal justice system? Are the benefits being reaped — marginal, or even counterproductive, in many analyses — worth the expense? Those employed in these systems naturally feel the benefits far exceed the costs. But self-interest is simply not an accurate measure of friction; ultimately, only a free market of free citizens can make that assessment.

The Transition to a Post-Friction Economy
PREVIEW by charleshughsmith

The Transition to a Post-Friction Economy

by Charles Hugh Smith, contributing editor
Tuesday, November 1, 2011

Executive Summary

  • Entrenched interests keep our markets from being free
  • We’re living in a fool’s paradise (but for how much longer?)
  • The forced choices headed our way
  • What the post-friction economy will look like
  • 2012-2105: The Era of Transformation begins

Part I – How Much of the US Economy Is Friction

If you have not yet read Part I, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

Part II – The Transition to a Post-Friction Economy

In Part I, we pursued the idea that much of the US economy is, in essence, unproductive friction that is overcome with vast borrowing — itself a form of friction — and the importing of fossil fuels. We also noted that the Central State/cartel “capitalism” partnership has greatly expanded the unproductive, uncompetitive “friction” segments of the economy and has limited consumer “choice” to purposely-selected menus designed to appear like a “free market” while benefiting State fiefdoms and private-sector cartels.

Entrenched Interests Keep Our Markets From Being Free

Looking at the sources and costs of friction gives us some insight into issues that are often seen as political — for example, the costs and benefits of borrowing trillions of dollars into existence every year and the costs/benefits of State regulation. Once we recognize how rising systemic friction will eventually freeze the system, then we also recognize that the path we’re on is unsustainable, and the political “rightness” or “wrongness” of increasing debt to fund the forces of friction becomes irrelevant.

The same can be said of State regulation. Given that one of the purposes of government is to protect the nation’s “commons” — air, water, public lands, and other shared resources — then some regulation is necessary to limit exploitation and predation of the commons by either private parties or the State itself. 

But we have confused productive regulation with regulation that achieves little beyond diverting funds to unproductive segments of the economy. There are hundreds, if not thousands of examples in every sector from criminal justice to farm subsidies to health care.

How about the enormous expense of the “war on drugs” and the resulting prison complex and criminal justice system? Are the benefits being reaped — marginal, or even counterproductive, in many analyses — worth the expense? Those employed in these systems naturally feel the benefits far exceed the costs. But self-interest is simply not an accurate measure of friction; ultimately, only a free market of free citizens can make that assessment.

by Chris Martenson

What do you get when the producer of the world's reserve currency takes on too much debt? Nothing less than the end of the US Treasury-based monetary system.

So says Eric Janszen, economic and financial market analyst and proprietor of iTulip.com. In chronicling the decline of the global economy over the past decade, Eric has formulated a framework called the "Ka-POOM" theory, which endeavors to understand how the immense run-up in global debt will be resolved.

In short, it looks at the credit bubble that began in the early 1980's, started accelerating in 1995, and has now reached epic proportions. The amounts are so staggering at this stage that Eric believes it is too politically undesirable to let natural market adjustments clear them away — the magnitude of the deflationary pain this would create is simply unacceptable for politicians looking to get re-elected. The only other available option is to service these debts via a dramatically devalued currency. Hence the key role the Fed is playing today.

The Fed is at the epicenter of this process, intervening heavily to keep the natural corrective market forces at bay. In this, it has a dual strategy. The first is to keep asset prices high (i.e., fight asset deflation), which it is doing by keeping interest rates historically low. The second is to keep wage and commodity costs under control, which it primarily does via devaluing the currency (maintaining a "weak dollar").

And, of course, through its intervention, the Fed is doing all it can to keep the current financial system in place to perpetuate the process for as long as possible. The end result is a fundamental shift in risk from Wall Street to the taxpayer.

So the big question is: How long can this last?  Is there a point at which confidence in the system breaks and market forces finally overwhelm the intervention?

 

Eric Janszen: We Are Witnessing The Death of the Dollar
by Chris Martenson

What do you get when the producer of the world's reserve currency takes on too much debt? Nothing less than the end of the US Treasury-based monetary system.

So says Eric Janszen, economic and financial market analyst and proprietor of iTulip.com. In chronicling the decline of the global economy over the past decade, Eric has formulated a framework called the "Ka-POOM" theory, which endeavors to understand how the immense run-up in global debt will be resolved.

In short, it looks at the credit bubble that began in the early 1980's, started accelerating in 1995, and has now reached epic proportions. The amounts are so staggering at this stage that Eric believes it is too politically undesirable to let natural market adjustments clear them away — the magnitude of the deflationary pain this would create is simply unacceptable for politicians looking to get re-elected. The only other available option is to service these debts via a dramatically devalued currency. Hence the key role the Fed is playing today.

The Fed is at the epicenter of this process, intervening heavily to keep the natural corrective market forces at bay. In this, it has a dual strategy. The first is to keep asset prices high (i.e., fight asset deflation), which it is doing by keeping interest rates historically low. The second is to keep wage and commodity costs under control, which it primarily does via devaluing the currency (maintaining a "weak dollar").

And, of course, through its intervention, the Fed is doing all it can to keep the current financial system in place to perpetuate the process for as long as possible. The end result is a fundamental shift in risk from Wall Street to the taxpayer.

So the big question is: How long can this last?  Is there a point at which confidence in the system breaks and market forces finally overwhelm the intervention?

 

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